PC's In The Toilet... An Opportunity??
by Jeff Tunnell · in General Discussion · 12/06/2000 (12:22 pm) · 42 replies
Currently, the PC market is in the toilet. Gateway and Apple have both reported that growth over last year, which everyone expected to be in the +15% range, is actually negative. So, less new PC's will be going into homes this year than last year. In Apple's case, they will actually sell 30% less than last year. Yowza!
This data is backed up by the financial results of Best Buy and Circuit City, which have both warned that sales will be well below expectations, mostly due to lack of interest in PC buying.
PC game sales have been affected by these and other trends, such as the availability of all the free games you can play on the Internet. As a result, traditional PC publishers have not met unrealistic expectations causing some high profile failures, consolidations, and strategy shifts.
Gores bought out Mattel Interactive for pennies on the dollar, Hasbro is falling to Infogrames, GTI folded tent and gave it up to Infogrames, Cendant gave away Sierra/Blizzard/Dynamix to Havas, EA has trimmed many product lines, and so on. It doesn;t look like it is over yet, with rumors of additional layoffs from other publishers.
Those publishers that haven't given it up have announed major plans to get into the video game business, which appears to be the current holy grail of profitablility. It will be for some, but many will find they don't know exactly how to do this, causing further consolidation.
What does this mean for you, the independent developer?? Well, IMHO, the best time to get into something is when everybody else is bailing out. It takes 12-24 months to create a game, so think about where we will be then.
- PS2 will have been on the market two years, and the graphics will be looking dated.
- XBox will be a year old, and the graphics will still look good, but it will still have the problem of all content being controlled by Microsoft.
- Nintendo Game Cube will still be aimed at 8-12 year olds and tightly controlled.
In contrast, the average PC will be 1GHz, the video card will be 100 times better than a G-Force, it will have a fast Ethernet Web connection, a keyboard, a mouse, and a spectacular high resolution screen. Even better, nobody tells you what game you can or can't do, there is a lot of available technology, and distribution is available (that's where we come in).
Mcu more on this later, but for now... stay the course, make innovative games, and the world will come back to us.
Jeff
This data is backed up by the financial results of Best Buy and Circuit City, which have both warned that sales will be well below expectations, mostly due to lack of interest in PC buying.
PC game sales have been affected by these and other trends, such as the availability of all the free games you can play on the Internet. As a result, traditional PC publishers have not met unrealistic expectations causing some high profile failures, consolidations, and strategy shifts.
Gores bought out Mattel Interactive for pennies on the dollar, Hasbro is falling to Infogrames, GTI folded tent and gave it up to Infogrames, Cendant gave away Sierra/Blizzard/Dynamix to Havas, EA has trimmed many product lines, and so on. It doesn;t look like it is over yet, with rumors of additional layoffs from other publishers.
Those publishers that haven't given it up have announed major plans to get into the video game business, which appears to be the current holy grail of profitablility. It will be for some, but many will find they don't know exactly how to do this, causing further consolidation.
What does this mean for you, the independent developer?? Well, IMHO, the best time to get into something is when everybody else is bailing out. It takes 12-24 months to create a game, so think about where we will be then.
- PS2 will have been on the market two years, and the graphics will be looking dated.
- XBox will be a year old, and the graphics will still look good, but it will still have the problem of all content being controlled by Microsoft.
- Nintendo Game Cube will still be aimed at 8-12 year olds and tightly controlled.
In contrast, the average PC will be 1GHz, the video card will be 100 times better than a G-Force, it will have a fast Ethernet Web connection, a keyboard, a mouse, and a spectacular high resolution screen. Even better, nobody tells you what game you can or can't do, there is a lot of available technology, and distribution is available (that's where we come in).
Mcu more on this later, but for now... stay the course, make innovative games, and the world will come back to us.
Jeff
About the author
#22
PC hardware is not the only one that can take advantage of "modern" visualization techniques (modern being all relative, since that stuff is decades old for the most part, it just got moved over from non realtime visualization to real time, and most of it won't be used pervasively in games for years to come, if not a decade...), as you should be aware of...
And everything you said kinda tells the contrary story to your point : it's not going to make PC gaming bigger, but smaller. Yes, smaller.
As in niche markets and console ports, the niches being some MMOs games, some sim stuff (Silent Hunter 3 rocks, but could be done on a console), casual PC games for playing on lunch break, etc.
Plus, I don't think you fully realize how much resources the kind of games you have in mind take to pull off. That in itself is making it a fringe thing, not the norm.
Everything points to the PC becoming less and less of a gaming platform...
Not to mention its cost as a gaming platform to play the kind of games you have in mind : you can get a complete office PC for the price of that kind of vidcard...
Why do you think there is such a resurgence of 2d games, not only on PC/Mac, but also consoles ? Because they're a LOT cheaper to make.
Photorealistic games still look like crap for the most part when you see them in movement...
Why do you think WoW went the way they did with visual content ?
And most important, I don't know about you, but I'm making games, and making a living from them now, not in 5, 10 or 15 years...
Chris : some companies are specializing in bringing devkits and console opportunities to studios (Oberon Media comes to mind).
That's one possibility.
Stuff like Live Arcade on the current xbox and the next one is also an interesting possibility for small indies (using the world small, 'cause financially viable indies can already get the devkits, pitch their games, etc ;))
Devkits are not that expensive when you put them in the bigger pictures of console gaming, and the cost of developing and marketing a real console title, as opposed to getting on Live Arcade, which makes your game more akin to the small, PC downloads a lot of Indies are working on...
I don't think MS XNA has anything to do with it (more hype than anything ;))
04/11/2005 (9:35 am)
Dreamer, you can disagree, but Jeff is one of the people who got the PC gaming industry off the ground in the first place, he's been at it for close, if not more than 20 years, and again, all the market info, be it publically available or not, tells a story to the contrary of what you say...PC hardware is not the only one that can take advantage of "modern" visualization techniques (modern being all relative, since that stuff is decades old for the most part, it just got moved over from non realtime visualization to real time, and most of it won't be used pervasively in games for years to come, if not a decade...), as you should be aware of...
And everything you said kinda tells the contrary story to your point : it's not going to make PC gaming bigger, but smaller. Yes, smaller.
As in niche markets and console ports, the niches being some MMOs games, some sim stuff (Silent Hunter 3 rocks, but could be done on a console), casual PC games for playing on lunch break, etc.
Plus, I don't think you fully realize how much resources the kind of games you have in mind take to pull off. That in itself is making it a fringe thing, not the norm.
Everything points to the PC becoming less and less of a gaming platform...
Not to mention its cost as a gaming platform to play the kind of games you have in mind : you can get a complete office PC for the price of that kind of vidcard...
Why do you think there is such a resurgence of 2d games, not only on PC/Mac, but also consoles ? Because they're a LOT cheaper to make.
Photorealistic games still look like crap for the most part when you see them in movement...
Why do you think WoW went the way they did with visual content ?
And most important, I don't know about you, but I'm making games, and making a living from them now, not in 5, 10 or 15 years...
Chris : some companies are specializing in bringing devkits and console opportunities to studios (Oberon Media comes to mind).
That's one possibility.
Stuff like Live Arcade on the current xbox and the next one is also an interesting possibility for small indies (using the world small, 'cause financially viable indies can already get the devkits, pitch their games, etc ;))
Devkits are not that expensive when you put them in the bigger pictures of console gaming, and the cost of developing and marketing a real console title, as opposed to getting on Live Arcade, which makes your game more akin to the small, PC downloads a lot of Indies are working on...
I don't think MS XNA has anything to do with it (more hype than anything ;))
#23
Truth be told, I think its the other way around. With the emergence of HD sets, that only puts console gaming right up there in the tech land of PCs. You'll start to even see a lot of the hardcore PC gamers head over to consoles this next gen - especially if the console makers expand the capabilities of them, which it appears they will.
And I think that'll likely be done on the consoles. The Xbox 2 is just unbelivably powered for what it shall be priced, and it'll be better than most of the top PCs for probably another 3 years. Its just a cycle that PCs will find themselves losing. The console makers are serious now, and the addition of real online play, customization (modders actually being able to sell their stuff over the Xbox Marketplace), HDTV, and such will only see more and more people head to the console realm. Its an exciting time, but I simply don't see the PCs winning it. Why would most people want to upgrade to a 64-bit system when their current systems run web browsing, WORD, etc just fine?
04/11/2005 (9:40 am)
Quote:@Jeff I disagree, my instincts tell me that in 3-5 years we will see a resurgence in PC Gaming the likes of which have never been seen before, with new visualization technologies becoming ubiquitous, like HD etc, we may see a smattering of convergence devices come up on the market, but honestly people WANT to play certain types of games in the privacy of their bedroom or whever the computer happens to sit. Sitting in the living room tying up the TV with juniors latest game tends to cause family friction, since most of us Gen X'ers now have kids, and the rest will be very soon, you have a whole generation brought up on both Console and PC gaming, that now has money to play games, and motivation to relax alone (kids are a pain in the butt and escape does feel nice).
Truth be told, I think its the other way around. With the emergence of HD sets, that only puts console gaming right up there in the tech land of PCs. You'll start to even see a lot of the hardcore PC gamers head over to consoles this next gen - especially if the console makers expand the capabilities of them, which it appears they will.
Quote:Yes PC hardware is now to the point where it can take full advantage of todays visualization techniques, but in the future I think you will see games, which address an entire world the size of earth mapped down to the inch, this will require ALOT more processing power than we have now, and of course GenX being the "me too" generation will want to be the first on the block with the newest latest and greatest, if for no other reason than to let junior sit in the living room and Veg out to "Nun Hunter 2010 (escape of the killer nuns)" while dad sits and Plays "Evercrack 3000", trying to escape the mundanity of his workaday life.
And I think that'll likely be done on the consoles. The Xbox 2 is just unbelivably powered for what it shall be priced, and it'll be better than most of the top PCs for probably another 3 years. Its just a cycle that PCs will find themselves losing. The console makers are serious now, and the addition of real online play, customization (modders actually being able to sell their stuff over the Xbox Marketplace), HDTV, and such will only see more and more people head to the console realm. Its an exciting time, but I simply don't see the PCs winning it. Why would most people want to upgrade to a 64-bit system when their current systems run web browsing, WORD, etc just fine?
#24
What do you guys think of that? How do you go about getting a game on XArcade? Does MS pick them or what? I have read a bunch of webpages and I couldn't find that info.
04/11/2005 (10:18 am)
Could you use OpenXDK, the opensource XBox development kit to create a XBox Game then pitch it to publishers for the XBox Live Arcade? If a publisher wants to publish it then get it signed by MS so that it can be played on non-modded XBox's? An XArcade game is nothing more then a small XBox game.What do you guys think of that? How do you go about getting a game on XArcade? Does MS pick them or what? I have read a bunch of webpages and I couldn't find that info.
#25
04/11/2005 (10:20 am)
Make the game, prove it's "worthy" (my term here, meaning it will sell), and then worry about console development guys--unless you've got quite a bit of money to purchase the console SDK's, and the expertise in creating games for the limitations of a console, anything else is somewhat silly for an indy game dev!
#26
It seems an extremely difficult leap to make, and I am interested in finding out how difficult it will be, when I reach that point.
As far as the SDK. OpenXDK seems like a viable solution (it is free)
04/11/2005 (10:41 am)
I can agree with your point of view Stephen. I'm not worrying about it so much as taking a glance at a potential future. I would like to know how easy or difficult it will be to move to a console, that is all. It seems an extremely difficult leap to make, and I am interested in finding out how difficult it will be, when I reach that point.
As far as the SDK. OpenXDK seems like a viable solution (it is free)
#27
It's not representative of what can be done on an xbox, is not even close to the official SDK in terms of offered APIs, etc. and to boot, well, you need a modded one to use it at all.
Why waste valuable time writing code that you'll have to refactor if not outright throw away ?
04/11/2005 (10:59 am)
OpenXDK is not a viable solution for xbox development : MS will not let you use it to ship a game, and it doesn't leverage the platform's capabilities at all, as in no hardware accelerated gfx, etc.It's not representative of what can be done on an xbox, is not even close to the official SDK in terms of offered APIs, etc. and to boot, well, you need a modded one to use it at all.
Why waste valuable time writing code that you'll have to refactor if not outright throw away ?
#28
As a consumer you sit the kids down in front of it and they can't mess it up, if they do then just hit reset and 30 seconds later they are playing again.
I have 5 pc's in my home office and I have quite a few pc games. That's where I got started and they'll always have a place in my heart. My current game is being developed for the pc with T2D. However, when I get home from work what do I do: I put a game in the xbox, crash in my recliner in front of my big screen and surround sound and just start playing. When I get tired of it I just turn it off. The games just work. Put in the disk and you are playing. Want to play online, it just works. With the pc I have to install and deal with all the settings, if there's a problem it will take atleast several minutes to get it resolved. After sitting behind a PC coding all day or attending meetings or supporting user issues, it's nice to do something easy and mindless for a while.
My console has lasted me 3-4 years as originally purchased, to play the latest pc games I have to buy new hardware every 6 months. It gets expensive.
From a developer standpoint I also think consoles are easier. It's a static target, everybody has the same thing: memory, video memory, audio, processor, ... You don't have to do special casing to handle all the different video card manufacturers. You don't have to deal with finding and setting minimum specs. You don't have to have QA test on 100 different platforms.
The take-away: I use my PC when I want to get work done or when playing a game that requires deeper strategy and thought. For entertainment, I go to the simplicity of the console in the living room.
--Tom
04/11/2005 (11:00 am)
My take on the PC versus Console, there's going to be even more of a shift of commercial/mainstream games going to the console and PC's will be relegated to indies and ports. Consoles are just too easy to use for the average consumer compared to pc's. As a consumer you sit the kids down in front of it and they can't mess it up, if they do then just hit reset and 30 seconds later they are playing again.
I have 5 pc's in my home office and I have quite a few pc games. That's where I got started and they'll always have a place in my heart. My current game is being developed for the pc with T2D. However, when I get home from work what do I do: I put a game in the xbox, crash in my recliner in front of my big screen and surround sound and just start playing. When I get tired of it I just turn it off. The games just work. Put in the disk and you are playing. Want to play online, it just works. With the pc I have to install and deal with all the settings, if there's a problem it will take atleast several minutes to get it resolved. After sitting behind a PC coding all day or attending meetings or supporting user issues, it's nice to do something easy and mindless for a while.
My console has lasted me 3-4 years as originally purchased, to play the latest pc games I have to buy new hardware every 6 months. It gets expensive.
From a developer standpoint I also think consoles are easier. It's a static target, everybody has the same thing: memory, video memory, audio, processor, ... You don't have to do special casing to handle all the different video card manufacturers. You don't have to deal with finding and setting minimum specs. You don't have to have QA test on 100 different platforms.
The take-away: I use my PC when I want to get work done or when playing a game that requires deeper strategy and thought. For entertainment, I go to the simplicity of the console in the living room.
--Tom
#29
04/11/2005 (11:03 am)
Thanks for that info Nicholas. it was difficult finding anything about OpenXDK.
#30
If anyone has used Xbox media centre on a modded Xbox, its awesome. Views almost every major video codec, image format and audio format with the standard xbox remote, allows you to stream media from your PC or the web. Once HDTV becomes the norm in 5-10 years I think the Pc will start drifting back into offices, and become less important for home entertainment.
In the short term though, I do thing the PC will be a very strong market whilst publishers begin to move on. Now that it looks like Xbox isn't as closely tied to the regular PC architecture, it will be interesting to see how things develop. In my opinion the Xbox did a great deal to help boost the PC as a gaming platform since it gave PC developers the opportunity to develop games for the PC whilst aiming towards Xbox engine compatibiity. The 2 technologies are very similar, and in my experience with 2 engines on Xbox, porting between Xbox and PC was a fairly trivial matter, the hardest part was actually Q&A testing, and meeting Microsoft and Sonys stringent rules regarding silly things like how gamesave data is stored lol.
BTW I just upgraded for the first time in 4 years. 6.5 years ago I bought a P2 400. 5.5 years ago I bought an athlon 800, 4.5 years ago I upgraded to a athlon1200 and Geforce 3. It's only in the last month 4.5 years since my last upgrade that I finaly felt that I needed to upgrade as my hardware was holding back my game development work and not allowing me to enjoy PC games as much as I used to.
04/11/2005 (11:17 am)
I think that consoles will probably start taking away a lot of the casual PC owning market that uses PC's to browse the web and send emails, view digital photo's etc.If anyone has used Xbox media centre on a modded Xbox, its awesome. Views almost every major video codec, image format and audio format with the standard xbox remote, allows you to stream media from your PC or the web. Once HDTV becomes the norm in 5-10 years I think the Pc will start drifting back into offices, and become less important for home entertainment.
In the short term though, I do thing the PC will be a very strong market whilst publishers begin to move on. Now that it looks like Xbox isn't as closely tied to the regular PC architecture, it will be interesting to see how things develop. In my opinion the Xbox did a great deal to help boost the PC as a gaming platform since it gave PC developers the opportunity to develop games for the PC whilst aiming towards Xbox engine compatibiity. The 2 technologies are very similar, and in my experience with 2 engines on Xbox, porting between Xbox and PC was a fairly trivial matter, the hardest part was actually Q&A testing, and meeting Microsoft and Sonys stringent rules regarding silly things like how gamesave data is stored lol.
BTW I just upgraded for the first time in 4 years. 6.5 years ago I bought a P2 400. 5.5 years ago I bought an athlon 800, 4.5 years ago I upgraded to a athlon1200 and Geforce 3. It's only in the last month 4.5 years since my last upgrade that I finaly felt that I needed to upgrade as my hardware was holding back my game development work and not allowing me to enjoy PC games as much as I used to.
#31
The hardware currently shipped to the developers from Microsoft is nothing less than a workstation from a company otherwise known for their MP3 players and cool OS, that's how weird the new XBox2 will be.
04/11/2005 (1:42 pm)
XBox2 will not be very similar to the PC however. Triple core PowerPC CPU, no harddrive on the entry level machine (no developer can risk bypassing this machine so all games must be able to run without harddrive).The hardware currently shipped to the developers from Microsoft is nothing less than a workstation from a company otherwise known for their MP3 players and cool OS, that's how weird the new XBox2 will be.
#32
Would be amusing if a consumer NT OS became avaliable for the other workstation computer company.
Something interesting I was just reading was that Xbox2 will be launched on MTV instead of E3, Days before Sony show off PS3 at their private venu taking place seperate to e3. quite funny watching these two play games.
04/11/2005 (3:35 pm)
Yeah it's very different to the old Xbox, which was just a PC with a nvidia Nforce chipset and more advanced GPU than was available to conumers at the time. Plus optimized DX API etc.Would be amusing if a consumer NT OS became avaliable for the other workstation computer company.
Something interesting I was just reading was that Xbox2 will be launched on MTV instead of E3, Days before Sony show off PS3 at their private venu taking place seperate to e3. quite funny watching these two play games.
#33
04/11/2005 (3:59 pm)
Adrian, did you happen to catch a date for when they where going to show it on mtv?
#34
gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=7919
04/11/2005 (5:09 pm)
12th of May. Here's the article with more details.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=7919
#35
Once you have one, unless your like me and upgrade it evry year, you probably wont bye one forlong time so
04/12/2005 (5:14 pm)
The Pc sales has nothing to do with the popularity of the games.Once you have one, unless your like me and upgrade it evry year, you probably wont bye one forlong time so
#36
This is something I've been looking at as far as where to get the most exposure out when its time for us to into PR mode.
04/12/2005 (6:20 pm)
Another thought might be to consider marketing PC games in other markets along with the US, where the PC seems quite strong. Korea, if I'm not mistaken, seems to have a pretty healthy PC gaming community. I'm not too sure on European markets (I've seen Germany being pretty PC friendly more than any others). This is something I've been looking at as far as where to get the most exposure out when its time for us to into PR mode.
#37
I'm hopeful the new Xbox will be as good as the last. Personally, I think they are screwing up without some of the old crew. The Xbox was great and they should stick with the HD etc... Most people love that feature.
04/12/2005 (6:40 pm)
I also think the consoles will dominate the PC ... especially with Internet connectivity allowing Indy games on the Xbox etc...I'm hopeful the new Xbox will be as good as the last. Personally, I think they are screwing up without some of the old crew. The Xbox was great and they should stick with the HD etc... Most people love that feature.
#38
04/13/2005 (6:59 am)
This all reminds me of Chris Crawford's old, somewhat negative, essay titled "Computer Games are Dead".
#39
But with PC games, you can DL mods and extras and stuff, and customize the game much more...and you have more privacy--very important if you're living with a family and kids.
Seems that older gamers will still play PC games, and kids will still play console games. I doubt it will change one way or another--as gamers get older and want to play a game away from the noise of the family, they'll do it on the PC. Young people will grow up with the PS4 or whatever...PSXtreme or PSMegaSuperUltra, dude. Something like that ;)
If PC games get released as Alphas and not as Betas, as most are, not needing patches and updates, it may attract more people back to PC games. Less headaches.
But who knows? Everyone I know who plays games has both a PC and a console and uses them both, like I do. If I want to play a single player game, I use the PC; as for sports games with friends, I use the console.
My two cents.
04/17/2005 (5:39 am)
Well, it's difficult to say which one will do better in five or ten years. Personally, I think they'll both do fine. What's great about consoles: they're streamlined for just games, no BS, just stick it in and play, no installing, no patches...and they're much easier to figure out than PCs, especially for kids and PC-illiterates (yeah, they're still plenty of these people around who have trouble with keyboards). Plus, playing a game with another person (I mean, a real live person next to you--not the online multiplayer deal) is something that's just plain easier with consoles (you don't need two consoles and two TVs).But with PC games, you can DL mods and extras and stuff, and customize the game much more...and you have more privacy--very important if you're living with a family and kids.
Seems that older gamers will still play PC games, and kids will still play console games. I doubt it will change one way or another--as gamers get older and want to play a game away from the noise of the family, they'll do it on the PC. Young people will grow up with the PS4 or whatever...PSXtreme or PSMegaSuperUltra, dude. Something like that ;)
If PC games get released as Alphas and not as Betas, as most are, not needing patches and updates, it may attract more people back to PC games. Less headaches.
But who knows? Everyone I know who plays games has both a PC and a console and uses them both, like I do. If I want to play a single player game, I use the PC; as for sports games with friends, I use the console.
My two cents.
#40
I think a lot of it makes sense...he does has a keen grasp on the industry, yet he does seem incredibly jaded and disillusioned. I don't think death is a bad thing--it always leaves room for something new to sprout and thrive. PC games aren't dead--maybe the 1980s era of creative games is gone. So is the era of creative movies, and music, whatever. Now the majority is schlock, with small creative and passionate individuals still trying their best to make something decent...but it's not dead; it will live on in another form. The world is never coming to an end; it's always beginning as a new world. IMO.
04/17/2005 (5:41 am)
BTW, interesting article--when did Chris Crawford write that?I think a lot of it makes sense...he does has a keen grasp on the industry, yet he does seem incredibly jaded and disillusioned. I don't think death is a bad thing--it always leaves room for something new to sprout and thrive. PC games aren't dead--maybe the 1980s era of creative games is gone. So is the era of creative movies, and music, whatever. Now the majority is schlock, with small creative and passionate individuals still trying their best to make something decent...but it's not dead; it will live on in another form. The world is never coming to an end; it's always beginning as a new world. IMO.
Torque Owner Chris Labombard
Premium Preferred
So how does an indie go about making the gigantic leap from pc to console? it seems a feat that is not easily accomplished. How does Microsofts XNA fit into all of this?