Why the PDA Games Market Sucks
by Randall · in General Discussion · 01/06/2004 (6:07 pm) · 13 replies
This article was sent to me by one of my friends. I have no idea how popular this particular site is, nor it influence or who the hell these people are. My first thought is that this is some scorned, pissed off developer that put a hell of alot of energy into a game, and it failed miserably. But thats just a guess.
The full article can be seen at: http://www.bookofhook.com/Article/GameDevelopment/WhythePDAGamesMarketSucks.html
One thing this guy fails to recognise, is the fact that RPGs and Strategy games sell miserably on the mobile platform. I don't know if anyone really knows why, but I have the feeling that mobile gamers have a completely different mindset than PC gamers. Mobile games are a quick diversion. They need to be something you can jump in and out of quickly. Waiting at the Dentist office, you don't want to invest 20 minutes into building an army, only to be called into the chair.
Furthermore, his numbers are totally screwed up. "Age of Empires" supposedly gets 40K downloads a month. Too bad they have only amassed 55K TOTAL in the year it has been released. I can almost certainly determine they are also getting more than a 1% demo-to-buyer ratio. Regardless, "Age of Empires" is NOT making its money back anytime soon.
This is why Indies rule that industry. Large corporations would laugh at a couple thousand a month. How many of YOU wish you were bringing in that amount as an indie, with full control of your projects?
He also states the most games have a demo-to-buyer ratio of 0.5% to 1.5%. Me, personally, I would shoot myself if my ratio was so low. Even 5% is unacceptable to me, for a TOP rated game. We aim for at least 10% and often get much higher.
The writer even admits to "pulling numbers out of nowhere".
I can also immediately determine that this writer/dev doesn't have a top-selling mobile game. Otherwise, his numbers would have been much more accurate because the Handango system is based on a simple LADDER.
HOWEVER, I can also tell everyone that his views are the NORM within that industry. Even developers that have 5-10 titles under their belt are struggling. So I can't really chastise him for his particular viewpoint, only for his innacurate sources and info.
The real point for me posting this article is that the rest of the site does hold some redeeming value. The other articles are pretty good.
The full article can be seen at: http://www.bookofhook.com/Article/GameDevelopment/WhythePDAGamesMarketSucks.html
One thing this guy fails to recognise, is the fact that RPGs and Strategy games sell miserably on the mobile platform. I don't know if anyone really knows why, but I have the feeling that mobile gamers have a completely different mindset than PC gamers. Mobile games are a quick diversion. They need to be something you can jump in and out of quickly. Waiting at the Dentist office, you don't want to invest 20 minutes into building an army, only to be called into the chair.
Furthermore, his numbers are totally screwed up. "Age of Empires" supposedly gets 40K downloads a month. Too bad they have only amassed 55K TOTAL in the year it has been released. I can almost certainly determine they are also getting more than a 1% demo-to-buyer ratio. Regardless, "Age of Empires" is NOT making its money back anytime soon.
This is why Indies rule that industry. Large corporations would laugh at a couple thousand a month. How many of YOU wish you were bringing in that amount as an indie, with full control of your projects?
He also states the most games have a demo-to-buyer ratio of 0.5% to 1.5%. Me, personally, I would shoot myself if my ratio was so low. Even 5% is unacceptable to me, for a TOP rated game. We aim for at least 10% and often get much higher.
The writer even admits to "pulling numbers out of nowhere".
I can also immediately determine that this writer/dev doesn't have a top-selling mobile game. Otherwise, his numbers would have been much more accurate because the Handango system is based on a simple LADDER.
HOWEVER, I can also tell everyone that his views are the NORM within that industry. Even developers that have 5-10 titles under their belt are struggling. So I can't really chastise him for his particular viewpoint, only for his innacurate sources and info.
The real point for me posting this article is that the rest of the site does hold some redeeming value. The other articles are pretty good.
About the author
#2
01/07/2004 (7:39 am)
Funny how RPG and Strategy genere's have always dominated and will continue to dominate the Gameboy ( all versions ) sales? The Pokemon series is nothing more than an RPG with simplified strategy style combat mechanics. So I figure RPG and Strategy games should be a no brainer on mobile game devices.
#3
Jarrod, thats kind of where everyone falls. Lots of assumptions are made when developers enter the industry, amateurs, professionals and publishers alike.
These devices were almost specifically DESIGNED for adventure games like "Day of the Tentacle" and "Indiana Jones: Fate of Atlantis", because of the TOUCHSCREEN input. There is even a SCUMM emulator that allows you to play those full versions on PocketPC. But even now, adventure games have been met with terrible sales.
RPGs were among the first games I remember playing on the older systems like c64 and Apple IIe. And that genre continues to thrive on PC and Consoles even now. But again, on mobile devices, they tend to get little notice.
There are several noteworthy RTS' on PDAs. "Warefare Inc." and "Argentum: This is War" are two games that come to mind. Both look and play great- but suffer from low sales. Warefare Inc. might be doing much better on the Palm side, but PocketPC sales seem to be fairly low.
The average Gameboy owner probably doesn't look anything like a Palm, PocketPC or Smartphone owner. The latter group are much older, professional (or students) with very little spare time on their hands. Mobile devices are much more expensive, fragile, and complex, so they definately are not designed for kids to toss into their backpack.
Action, Arcade and Puzzle games seem to rule the mobile world, and all of these genres feature a "quick fix". It is my opinion that a mobile game needs to be playable for 5 minutes or 5 hours, and the player should get just as much "fun" out of either. That kind of gameplay is kind of difficult to design around.
01/07/2004 (9:55 am)
Quote:So I figure RPG and Strategy games should be a no brainer on mobile game devices.
Jarrod, thats kind of where everyone falls. Lots of assumptions are made when developers enter the industry, amateurs, professionals and publishers alike.
These devices were almost specifically DESIGNED for adventure games like "Day of the Tentacle" and "Indiana Jones: Fate of Atlantis", because of the TOUCHSCREEN input. There is even a SCUMM emulator that allows you to play those full versions on PocketPC. But even now, adventure games have been met with terrible sales.
RPGs were among the first games I remember playing on the older systems like c64 and Apple IIe. And that genre continues to thrive on PC and Consoles even now. But again, on mobile devices, they tend to get little notice.
There are several noteworthy RTS' on PDAs. "Warefare Inc." and "Argentum: This is War" are two games that come to mind. Both look and play great- but suffer from low sales. Warefare Inc. might be doing much better on the Palm side, but PocketPC sales seem to be fairly low.
The average Gameboy owner probably doesn't look anything like a Palm, PocketPC or Smartphone owner. The latter group are much older, professional (or students) with very little spare time on their hands. Mobile devices are much more expensive, fragile, and complex, so they definately are not designed for kids to toss into their backpack.
Action, Arcade and Puzzle games seem to rule the mobile world, and all of these genres feature a "quick fix". It is my opinion that a mobile game needs to be playable for 5 minutes or 5 hours, and the player should get just as much "fun" out of either. That kind of gameplay is kind of difficult to design around.
#4
PocketMatrix Demo Discussion.
My resource here at GG is even mentioned.
01/07/2004 (1:48 pm)
While we are at it, there is some interesting topics going on a PocketMatrix.com, discussing how NOT providing a demo affects sales. The results are somewhat interesting, and unexpected.PocketMatrix Demo Discussion.
My resource here at GG is even mentioned.
#5
Thing is people by game devices to play games and PocketPC's to keep up with there schedules. Which is what my wife does with hers, she dumped her daytimer for her e355 last year. She has no desire to play games on it, it is too important to risk installing anything on that is not 100% business related.
Games on PocketPC platform are not even a buying decision for most everyone that I know that owns and actually USES their PocketPC or Palm.
There are two types of portable device buyers, those that use them and those that use them as fashion accesorries. The first is not going to be interesting is non-business related software and the second is not interested in any software, they just tote the thing around.
The only thing that really separates the GBA and the Palm or PocketPC ( besides PRICE and the low end PDA devices are really close to the $99 SP ) is the marketing of its intended use.
01/08/2004 (6:51 pm)
Actually my wife has a PocketPC and an original GameBoy, GameBoy Color, and I got here a GameBoy Advance SP for her birthday.Thing is people by game devices to play games and PocketPC's to keep up with there schedules. Which is what my wife does with hers, she dumped her daytimer for her e355 last year. She has no desire to play games on it, it is too important to risk installing anything on that is not 100% business related.
Games on PocketPC platform are not even a buying decision for most everyone that I know that owns and actually USES their PocketPC or Palm.
There are two types of portable device buyers, those that use them and those that use them as fashion accesorries. The first is not going to be interesting is non-business related software and the second is not interested in any software, they just tote the thing around.
The only thing that really separates the GBA and the Palm or PocketPC ( besides PRICE and the low end PDA devices are really close to the $99 SP ) is the marketing of its intended use.
#6
When that happens, one of the most appealing features of handhelds from the indie standpoint - ease of development due to a low bar for graphics content - may go away. But simultaneously, we may see a great increase in handhelds being used as more general-purpose computers --- just as laptops partially replaced desktops for many people. This may increase the market for games.
Really, I see the current handheld war & market being VERY much like the "home computer" wars of the mid 80's... and I suspect historically they'll follow a similar pattern.
01/09/2004 (9:14 am)
The question in my mind is if the market is emerging or not. Even now, the big push seems to be to replace laptop computers with handhelds. If handhelds start getting the power of the desktop, however, that may mean that they start getting the graphics capabilities of the desktops as well.When that happens, one of the most appealing features of handhelds from the indie standpoint - ease of development due to a low bar for graphics content - may go away. But simultaneously, we may see a great increase in handhelds being used as more general-purpose computers --- just as laptops partially replaced desktops for many people. This may increase the market for games.
Really, I see the current handheld war & market being VERY much like the "home computer" wars of the mid 80's... and I suspect historically they'll follow a similar pattern.
#7
This statement is false on many fronts.
1) Some Indies assume they have to compete directly with the rest of the industry. Its a fruitless effort, there is no way in hell an Indie can produce something as polished as HL2, nor technically amazing as Doom3. So why try? These people are fighting a losing battle and need to focus their energies on markets that CANNOT be filled by publishers.
2) PDA Indies are at the forefront of the technology, pushing it harder. This is a niche the Publishers CANNOT fullfill, even with their immense resources. Indies were the first to make full musical soundtracks commonplace, rather than traditional sound bytes and chip music. Indies were the first to use full 16-bit color, rather than the 256-color that published games STILL use. Indies were the first to make true 3D possible. Indies were the first to implement semi-intelligent and engaging AI. Indies were the first to make use of full alpha blended sprites, while the publishers are still using bitmasked. The list goes on and on.
The point is, the publishers saw these devices as no more than a Gameboy COLOR, and thats the content they continue to push.
3) Snails took 4 months to build. If we had targeted the PC market, we could have accomplished a hell of alot more graphically in the exact same timeframe. So while the PDAs hardware is inferior, you have to work much harder to make the most out of it. Sometimes this requires delving into ASM. This also requires the knowledge to give your graphics more punch, when there isn't technical wizardry to help you out.
4)The insanely HIGH BAR in the PC industry hasn't stopped thousands of indies from trying their hand at game design. So I would suspect it would have little to no impact in the PDA industry.
5) The vast majority of PDA Indie developers create sub-standard games, simply because they don't want to invest resources, they don't know the hardware, and they don't know the market. Then they complain that sales suck and then they declare the industry as "dead". This model was doomed from the beginning.
This doesn't mean the game needs to be complex. Only 2 of the top-10 games use 3D. The rest are 2D, puzzles or retro. There are ZERO strategy games, ZERO RPGs and ZERO adventure games in the top-ten.
01/09/2004 (10:23 am)
There isn't a big push to replace laptops with PDAs. Laptops are moving into the marketspace that was previously occupied by big fat desktop machines. PDAs are filling the resulting void.Quote:When that happens, one of the most appealing features of handhelds from the indie standpoint - ease of development due to a low bar for graphics content - may go away
This statement is false on many fronts.
1) Some Indies assume they have to compete directly with the rest of the industry. Its a fruitless effort, there is no way in hell an Indie can produce something as polished as HL2, nor technically amazing as Doom3. So why try? These people are fighting a losing battle and need to focus their energies on markets that CANNOT be filled by publishers.
2) PDA Indies are at the forefront of the technology, pushing it harder. This is a niche the Publishers CANNOT fullfill, even with their immense resources. Indies were the first to make full musical soundtracks commonplace, rather than traditional sound bytes and chip music. Indies were the first to use full 16-bit color, rather than the 256-color that published games STILL use. Indies were the first to make true 3D possible. Indies were the first to implement semi-intelligent and engaging AI. Indies were the first to make use of full alpha blended sprites, while the publishers are still using bitmasked. The list goes on and on.
The point is, the publishers saw these devices as no more than a Gameboy COLOR, and thats the content they continue to push.
3) Snails took 4 months to build. If we had targeted the PC market, we could have accomplished a hell of alot more graphically in the exact same timeframe. So while the PDAs hardware is inferior, you have to work much harder to make the most out of it. Sometimes this requires delving into ASM. This also requires the knowledge to give your graphics more punch, when there isn't technical wizardry to help you out.
4)The insanely HIGH BAR in the PC industry hasn't stopped thousands of indies from trying their hand at game design. So I would suspect it would have little to no impact in the PDA industry.
5) The vast majority of PDA Indie developers create sub-standard games, simply because they don't want to invest resources, they don't know the hardware, and they don't know the market. Then they complain that sales suck and then they declare the industry as "dead". This model was doomed from the beginning.
This doesn't mean the game needs to be complex. Only 2 of the top-10 games use 3D. The rest are 2D, puzzles or retro. There are ZERO strategy games, ZERO RPGs and ZERO adventure games in the top-ten.
#8
Our coder ported Quake to use that GPU, specifically for ATI to show off at CES this week. It averages between 30-40 FPS with the original game content. It looks just like the GLQuake version, with billinear filtering.
In contrast, the current devices run Quake at about 8 FPS, with just plain software rendering of WinQuake (no bilinear).
01/09/2004 (10:30 am)
Also, the market is expanding. ATI just announced their mobile 3D accelerated GPU using OpenGL ES. We have had the opportunity to work with this chip, and its simply amazing.Our coder ported Quake to use that GPU, specifically for ATI to show off at CES this week. It averages between 30-40 FPS with the original game content. It looks just like the GLQuake version, with billinear filtering.
In contrast, the current devices run Quake at about 8 FPS, with just plain software rendering of WinQuake (no bilinear).
#9
One aspect the really intrigues me personally is the idea of creating games which are designed for three levels of play: via solo play, via Bluetooth with local "head to head" games, and via mobile networks for broader play. The idea that the PDA/mobile platform (and I feel those two are definately merging on the hardware end) can gives gamers this variety of experience, theoretically in the same game, is fascinating.
01/20/2004 (7:08 am)
Randall, any resources a dev team could utilize to get more info on this field?One aspect the really intrigues me personally is the idea of creating games which are designed for three levels of play: via solo play, via Bluetooth with local "head to head" games, and via mobile networks for broader play. The idea that the PDA/mobile platform (and I feel those two are definately merging on the hardware end) can gives gamers this variety of experience, theoretically in the same game, is fascinating.
#10
One really nice thing is that alot of developers know each other on a personal basis so competition is not coming from which game is going to outsell the other, but rather, convincing the Mobile Device owners to start buying the games in the first place.
Mobile Game Dev is still ground level and I encourage any dev team to at least see what's out there. As far as resources, I would start at the meeting sites that both gamers and developers hangout at...namely PocketMatrix.com and PocketGamer.org
01/20/2004 (7:49 am)
I agree with Randy that the marketing is expanding but with some game dev stigmata attached to it. Some customers are happy with 2d engines, some clamour for 3d engines that rival what is on other platforms. Should a dev team go the 2d route and make their own simple engine or license something like Fat Hammer?One really nice thing is that alot of developers know each other on a personal basis so competition is not coming from which game is going to outsell the other, but rather, convincing the Mobile Device owners to start buying the games in the first place.
Mobile Game Dev is still ground level and I encourage any dev team to at least see what's out there. As far as resources, I would start at the meeting sites that both gamers and developers hangout at...namely PocketMatrix.com and PocketGamer.org
#11
So I really don't think cutting edge technology has much to do with it, at this time. In fact I can think of a couple fairly decent 3D games that just can't seem to sell at all.
FatHammer also comes with a fat price tag. There are several games that use the FatHammer engine, and none of them are selling well. This is more a reflection of bad game design and poor implementation, than it is a reflection of FatHammer. And this is common regardless what platform or engine is used (I see this happening in Torque as well).
In short, I would fine-tune my work within a 2D environment. 3D certainly doesn't make the development easier nor faster, and that often makes the overall gameplay suffer.
01/20/2004 (11:33 am)
There are only two 3D games that appear in the Handango top-ten. There are only couple more that appear in the top 35- and I know for a fact there are literally dozens of 3D games available on the platform. In this case, 3D is used in the loosest sense, where even Doom2 can be considered 3D when it really isn't. (Doom2 sells horribly on PocketPC).So I really don't think cutting edge technology has much to do with it, at this time. In fact I can think of a couple fairly decent 3D games that just can't seem to sell at all.
FatHammer also comes with a fat price tag. There are several games that use the FatHammer engine, and none of them are selling well. This is more a reflection of bad game design and poor implementation, than it is a reflection of FatHammer. And this is common regardless what platform or engine is used (I see this happening in Torque as well).
In short, I would fine-tune my work within a 2D environment. 3D certainly doesn't make the development easier nor faster, and that often makes the overall gameplay suffer.
#12
-s
01/20/2004 (12:21 pm)
This convo leads me to question how well that new gaming-intended PDA will(has been) sell... The black one w/ the analog sticks..forgot whats its called.-s
#13
PalmOS6 was just finalized, and that should be appearing on PDAs in the coming months. Not sure if you can just upgrade the ROM on current Palm OS5 devices. Thats one thing cool about PocketPCs, is you can upgrade your OS from PocketPC 2000 to PocketPC 2003 if you want.
For the first time, Palm OS6 will feature MULTITASKING.
The great thing about Palm is they have a very faithful and dedicated following, much like Mac. However, in order to keep up with the industry, they have had to break several of the rules that made Palm so successful (AAA batteries that lasted 3 weeks are NO MORE, due to integrated Wifi, Bluetooth, color screens, faster CPUs, etc). Simpler is no longer better.
The other up-and-coming gaming dedicated PDA is supposedly the NGage. However, that thing is probably the single largest pile of crap I have seen in a long time. I had the benefit of seeing the NGage during its prototyping stages, and even commented on some of its shortcomings. However, it appears NONE of that was fixed, and it almost went into production exactly as I had seen in the prototype.
01/20/2004 (12:38 pm)
Zodiac. Palm OS5. Very nice device from what I have seen- I hope to buy one in the coming months.PalmOS6 was just finalized, and that should be appearing on PDAs in the coming months. Not sure if you can just upgrade the ROM on current Palm OS5 devices. Thats one thing cool about PocketPCs, is you can upgrade your OS from PocketPC 2000 to PocketPC 2003 if you want.
For the first time, Palm OS6 will feature MULTITASKING.
The great thing about Palm is they have a very faithful and dedicated following, much like Mac. However, in order to keep up with the industry, they have had to break several of the rules that made Palm so successful (AAA batteries that lasted 3 weeks are NO MORE, due to integrated Wifi, Bluetooth, color screens, faster CPUs, etc). Simpler is no longer better.
The other up-and-coming gaming dedicated PDA is supposedly the NGage. However, that thing is probably the single largest pile of crap I have seen in a long time. I had the benefit of seeing the NGage during its prototyping stages, and even commented on some of its shortcomings. However, it appears NONE of that was fixed, and it almost went into production exactly as I had seen in the prototype.
Torque Owner Jeremy Noetzelman
I agree ;) I'm credited on one of his articles (Game Networking one)