Japan Tokai Quake Predicted for late 2016 early 2017
by Britton LaRoche · 01/08/2009 (2:12 pm) · 1262 comments
Update Jan 2013: Quake Database Built and Tested! Results are Here:
Note: Our method for predicting earthquakes has failed for a Southern California earthquake in the Spring 2011 and for the Tokai earthquake in Japan, and for Istanbul in 2012. This method of predicting earthquakes is still just a theory at this point.
In spite of the setbacks over the past year, we have predicted several significant earthquakes (documented in this blog) using a lunar tidal model. An entire community of people have contributed in this blog. Together we watched earthquake patterns as we made predictions. The authors here have contributed by presenting new ideas and linked research. Together we have refined the model over time. We believe the next window for the Japan Tokai quake is now in late 2016 or early 2017.
The Tokai earthquake article quoted below is linked here: geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm
"The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 30 years.... The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2012, it has been 158 years and counting."
Utilizing the theory tha certain lunar and solar eclipse cycles create higher than normal tidal pressure in Japan, we were able to use this model to correctly account for and predict almost all of the past tokai quakes in Japan. See page 43 for the details. www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/43
Current Japan Tokai Predictions based on the Lunar Saros Eclipse Cycle 114 and the resulting tidal pressures.
In the past we were not able to pinpoint the exact location. Using the stress transfer algorithm developed by scientist Jeffrey King and his team we now believe we have a method of predicting both the time and the location. Watch the video here for an explanation.
The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
Actual
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original 2009 Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
Once the donations hit 1 million USD I will quit my full time job and dedicate myself to quake prediction. All I need is a dollar from one million people or a million dollars from one very generous billionaire. Maybe Bill Gates would be interested. ;)
View Stats
Note: Our method for predicting earthquakes has failed for a Southern California earthquake in the Spring 2011 and for the Tokai earthquake in Japan, and for Istanbul in 2012. This method of predicting earthquakes is still just a theory at this point.
In spite of the setbacks over the past year, we have predicted several significant earthquakes (documented in this blog) using a lunar tidal model. An entire community of people have contributed in this blog. Together we watched earthquake patterns as we made predictions. The authors here have contributed by presenting new ideas and linked research. Together we have refined the model over time. We believe the next window for the Japan Tokai quake is now in late 2016 or early 2017.
The Tokai earthquake article quoted below is linked here: geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm
"The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 30 years.... The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2012, it has been 158 years and counting."
Utilizing the theory tha certain lunar and solar eclipse cycles create higher than normal tidal pressure in Japan, we were able to use this model to correctly account for and predict almost all of the past tokai quakes in Japan. See page 43 for the details. www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/43
Current Japan Tokai Predictions based on the Lunar Saros Eclipse Cycle 114 and the resulting tidal pressures.
PREDICTED QUAKE_DATE ECLIPSE_DATE DAYS SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2016-11-19 1498-09-20 1498-12-13 -84 114 8.6 34 138.1 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA 2016-11-19 1498-09-20 1498-12-13 -84 114 7.5 33.5 135.2 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 2017-04-01 1854-12-24 1854-11-20 34 140 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN 2017-04-02 1854-12-24 1854-11-04 50 114 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN
In the past we were not able to pinpoint the exact location. Using the stress transfer algorithm developed by scientist Jeffrey King and his team we now believe we have a method of predicting both the time and the location. Watch the video here for an explanation.
The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
PREDICTED ORIGIN SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-08 1916-04-21 118 7.8 33 141 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
Actual
DATE SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-11 118 9.0 38.30 142.37 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original 2009 Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Magnitude 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
Quote:
Tidal forces may have contributed to triggering the devastating magnitude 9.0 Sumatra earthquake of 2004 and other large earthquakes in the region. Gravitational pull from the Sun and the Moon not only is responsible for ocean tides but also creates Earth tides, slight motions of the solid Earth (bulges and dips in the earth's crust and upper mantle) that can lead to stress buildup (or stress relief) along faults.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Quote:
doi:10.1029/2009GL041581
The frequency distribution of tidal phase angles in the pre-event period exhibited a peak near the angle where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault slip. This implies that the high correlation observed in the pre-seismic stage is not a stochastic chance but is likely a physical consequence of the tidal stress change.
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
Once the donations hit 1 million USD I will quit my full time job and dedicate myself to quake prediction. All I need is a dollar from one million people or a million dollars from one very generous billionaire. Maybe Bill Gates would be interested. ;)
#942
Next on the list and in no way related to the tokai quake is...
Probability less than 10% as we are very far from the next eclipse.
08/13/2012 (6:06 pm)
.... and nothing so far. Waiting till October for the real tokai quake before I call this one a completely failed prediction.Next on the list and in no way related to the tokai quake is...
PREDICTED QUAKE_DATE ECLIPSE_DATE DAYS SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2012-09-14 1940-08-01 1940-10-01 -60 133 7.5 44.2 139.5 JAPAN: W. HOKKAIDO ISLAND 2012-09-20 1953-11-25 1954-01-19 -54 133 7.4 34 141.7 JAPAN: KASHIMA
Probability less than 10% as we are very far from the next eclipse.
#943
I looked at the quake maps, because I felt a small shake in Yokohama, 2000km away.
08/13/2012 (8:45 pm)
A Mag 7.3 - 7.7 in the Sea of Okhotsk, well north of Japan.I looked at the quake maps, because I felt a small shake in Yokohama, 2000km away.
#944
08/13/2012 (9:59 pm)
Actually looks like you nailed this one Britton. I was going to say maybe the pressure was going north, but you said there was no relationship between the two, so... Good work!
#945
Magnitude 7.7
158km ENE of Poronaysk, Russia
2012-08-14 02:59:42
49.784N 145.126E
Closest prediction is this one.
Not related to the Tokai quake. Off by 10 Degrees latitude, 3 longitude and 10 days. I miss read the prediction... its a total miss.
08/14/2012 (10:38 pm)
@Seneq, Right you are...Magnitude 7.7
158km ENE of Poronaysk, Russia
2012-08-14 02:59:42
49.784N 145.126E
Closest prediction is this one.
PREDICTED QUAKE_DATE ECLIPSE_DATE DAYS SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2012-08-05 1989-11-01 1989-08-17 77 128 7.4 39.83 142.76 JAPAN: HONSHU: N; AOMORI; MISAWA
Not related to the Tokai quake. Off by 10 Degrees latitude, 3 longitude and 10 days. I miss read the prediction... its a total miss.
#946
08/17/2012 (6:54 pm)
A peppering of small quakes east of Tokyo/Sendai in the last few days....
#947
It may be a slim chance but I did notice that my method did hit the year but not the exact date. I noticed that the related quakes often hit in September or in December / January.
September 22 is the Autumnal equinox. December and January is when the earth is at Perihelion (closest in orbit to the Sun). What does this have to do with earthquakes? My theory is that higher than normal tidal forces trigger earthquakes.
The earth experiences highest tidal forces during and eclipse, at the equinox and the Solar tide is larger at Perihelion. So.. it is a slim shot but if I had to pick a date and explain why my predictions are off by a few months for the Tokai quakes, then this is it. Next date for the Tokai quake is around September 22 2012.
www.pol.ac.uk/home/insight/tidefaq.html
Supporting evidence:
Perigee: 2012 Sep 19 2:53 365,748 km N+3d 0h
New moon: 2012 Sep 16 2:11
That puts the largest tide sometime between September 18th and September 22nd 2012. Thats my next guess for the Tokai quake if it hits this year. Next best guess is in 2017 with the Saros 114.
08/22/2012 (9:29 pm)
So I've done a little more research and I think if the Tokai quake does hit this year it will hit around the September Equinox on Saturday, September 22, 2012.It may be a slim chance but I did notice that my method did hit the year but not the exact date. I noticed that the related quakes often hit in September or in December / January.
EVENT TYPE QUAKE_DATE MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ACTUAL 0684-09-15 8.4 32.5 134 JAPAN ACTUAL 1498-09-20 8.6 34 138.1 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA ACTUAL 1498-09-20 7.5 33.5 135.2 JAPAN: NANKAIDO ACTUAL 1854-12-24 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN ACTUAL 1944-12-29 7.1 34.7 137.2 JAPAN: HONSHU: S ACTUAL 1945-01-14 7.1 34.7 137.2 JAPAN: HONSHU: S
September 22 is the Autumnal equinox. December and January is when the earth is at Perihelion (closest in orbit to the Sun). What does this have to do with earthquakes? My theory is that higher than normal tidal forces trigger earthquakes.
The earth experiences highest tidal forces during and eclipse, at the equinox and the Solar tide is larger at Perihelion. So.. it is a slim shot but if I had to pick a date and explain why my predictions are off by a few months for the Tokai quakes, then this is it. Next date for the Tokai quake is around September 22 2012.
www.pol.ac.uk/home/insight/tidefaq.html
Quote:
12. When during a year can we expect to find the largest tides?
A day or two after the full or new moon nearest to the equinoxes. The spring equinox is usually the 21st March, and the autumn equinox, the 23rd September.
Supporting evidence:
Perigee: 2012 Sep 19 2:53 365,748 km N+3d 0h
New moon: 2012 Sep 16 2:11
That puts the largest tide sometime between September 18th and September 22nd 2012. Thats my next guess for the Tokai quake if it hits this year. Next best guess is in 2017 with the Saros 114.
#948
I'm just beeing back in Europe from a 3 week trip to Shizuoka-ken/Japan for visiting friends and family. As much as I'm relieved that nothing happened during the trip, as much I'm concerned for september.
Britton, your prediction matches with the 188 cycle of big quakes (greater 7.0) which has not yet been discussed in this blog!!!:
2010-02-27 - Chile - 8.8-magnitude
Days between: 189
2010-09-04 - NewZealand - 7.1 magnitude
Days between: 188
2011-03-11 - Japan - 9.1 magnitude
Days between: 188
2011-09-15 - Fiji - 7.2 magnitude
Days between: 187
2012-03-20 - Mexico - 7.6 magnitude
Next quake date in this cycle is 2012-09-24 !!!
This cycle is definitly no coincidence. I think it's not a question if a quake (7.0+) happens around this day, just a question where.
08/23/2012 (7:07 am)
Hi,I'm just beeing back in Europe from a 3 week trip to Shizuoka-ken/Japan for visiting friends and family. As much as I'm relieved that nothing happened during the trip, as much I'm concerned for september.
Britton, your prediction matches with the 188 cycle of big quakes (greater 7.0) which has not yet been discussed in this blog!!!:
2010-02-27 - Chile - 8.8-magnitude
Days between: 189
2010-09-04 - NewZealand - 7.1 magnitude
Days between: 188
2011-03-11 - Japan - 9.1 magnitude
Days between: 188
2011-09-15 - Fiji - 7.2 magnitude
Days between: 187
2012-03-20 - Mexico - 7.6 magnitude
Next quake date in this cycle is 2012-09-24 !!!
This cycle is definitly no coincidence. I think it's not a question if a quake (7.0+) happens around this day, just a question where.
#949
How very interesting. What I notice is that those dates are very close to the Equinox times. It is 186 days between the Spring and Autumnal Equinox. This also corresponds to the largest tides of the year.
Spring Equinox: March 20
Autumnal Equinox: Sept 22
What I also notice is that these quakes are not all on the exact day of the equinox but within 21 days... I wonder if the difference is because they coincide with a particular tidal pattern, say new and full moon or perigee. You may get a large enough tide in February to trigger the quake for example if it occurs on a full moon with perigee.
Mexico was right on the spring equinox this year. All these locations are near tectonic plates under water. I'll have to look more closely at Mexico.
08/23/2012 (8:30 am)
Mar q,How very interesting. What I notice is that those dates are very close to the Equinox times. It is 186 days between the Spring and Autumnal Equinox. This also corresponds to the largest tides of the year.
Spring Equinox: March 20
Autumnal Equinox: Sept 22
select to_date('2012-09-22', 'YYYY-MM-DD') - to_date('2012-03-20', 'YYYY-MM-DD') from dual;
186Quote:
An equinox occurs twice a year (around 20 March and 22 September), when the tilt of the Earth's axis is inclined neither away from nor towards the Sun, the center of the Sun being in the same plane as the Earth's equator. The term equinox can also be used in a broader sense, meaning the date when such a passage happens. The name equinox is derived from the Latin aequus (equal) and nox (night), because around the equinox, the night and day have approximately equal length.
What I also notice is that these quakes are not all on the exact day of the equinox but within 21 days... I wonder if the difference is because they coincide with a particular tidal pattern, say new and full moon or perigee. You may get a large enough tide in February to trigger the quake for example if it occurs on a full moon with perigee.
Mexico was right on the spring equinox this year. All these locations are near tectonic plates under water. I'll have to look more closely at Mexico.
#950
08/24/2012 (2:15 am)
@Britton: Could you please do a query to your database to see if it returns any other quake prediction for the time in between 2012-09-20 to 2012-09-26 and quakes greater magnitude 7.0. It would be very interesting to see if it returns something for other locations on the pacific fault lines.
#951
I've looked up quakes back to 2004, and there have been 118 quakes > Mag 7
I'll show a plot later.
08/24/2012 (5:43 pm)
I don't think the 188 day idea for quakes larger than Mag 7 is correct.I've looked up quakes back to 2004, and there have been 118 quakes > Mag 7
I'll show a plot later.
#952
Sea of Okhosk 7.7 14-August-2012
Maule, Chile 7.1 25-March-2012
Oaxaca, Mexico 7.4 20-March-2012
Vanuatu 7.1 02-February-2012
E New Guinea 7.1 14-December-2011
E Turkey 7.1 23-October-2011
Kermadec Is 7.4 21-October-2011
Fiji region 7.3 15-September-2011
Vanuatu 7.0 03-September-2011
Vanuatu 7.0 20-August-2011
Vanuatu 7.1 20-August-2011
Honshu, Japan 7.0 10-July-2011
Kermadec il 7.6 06-July-2011
Aleutian,Alaska 7.2 24-June-2011
E Honshu, Japan 7.1 11-April-2011
E Honshu, Japan 7.1 07-April-2011
E Honshu, Japan 7.9 11-March-2011
E Honshu, Japan 9.0 11-March-2011
E Honshu, Japan 7.3 09-March-2011
SW Pakistan 7.2 18-January-2011
Loyalty Islands 7.0 13-January-2011
Araucania Chile 7.1 02-January-2011
Argentina 7.0 01-January-2011
Vanuatu 7.3 30-December-2010
Bonin Il, Japan 7.4 25-December-2010
Indonesia 7.7 25-October-2010
Papua, Indon 7.2 29-September-2010
S Island, NZ 7.0 03-September-2010
Ecuador 7.1 12-August-2010
Vanuatu 7.3 10-August-2010
PNG 7.0 04-August-2010
Philippines 7.4 23-July-2010
Philippines 7.6 23-July-2010
Philippines 7.3 23-July-2010
PNG 7.3 18-July-2010
N coast, PNG 7.0 16-June-2010
Nicobar Is 7.5 12-June-2010
Vanuatu 7.1 27-May-2010
Indonesia 7.2 09-May-2010
Indonesia 7.8 06-April-2010
Baja , Mexico 7.2 04-April-2010
Bio-Bio, Chile 8.8 27-February-2010
08/24/2012 (7:46 pm)
For example, in that period with only 5 quakes of over Mag 7(above) there were actually 42:Sea of Okhosk 7.7 14-August-2012
Maule, Chile 7.1 25-March-2012
Oaxaca, Mexico 7.4 20-March-2012
Vanuatu 7.1 02-February-2012
E New Guinea 7.1 14-December-2011
E Turkey 7.1 23-October-2011
Kermadec Is 7.4 21-October-2011
Fiji region 7.3 15-September-2011
Vanuatu 7.0 03-September-2011
Vanuatu 7.0 20-August-2011
Vanuatu 7.1 20-August-2011
Honshu, Japan 7.0 10-July-2011
Kermadec il 7.6 06-July-2011
Aleutian,Alaska 7.2 24-June-2011
E Honshu, Japan 7.1 11-April-2011
E Honshu, Japan 7.1 07-April-2011
E Honshu, Japan 7.9 11-March-2011
E Honshu, Japan 9.0 11-March-2011
E Honshu, Japan 7.3 09-March-2011
SW Pakistan 7.2 18-January-2011
Loyalty Islands 7.0 13-January-2011
Araucania Chile 7.1 02-January-2011
Argentina 7.0 01-January-2011
Vanuatu 7.3 30-December-2010
Bonin Il, Japan 7.4 25-December-2010
Indonesia 7.7 25-October-2010
Papua, Indon 7.2 29-September-2010
S Island, NZ 7.0 03-September-2010
Ecuador 7.1 12-August-2010
Vanuatu 7.3 10-August-2010
PNG 7.0 04-August-2010
Philippines 7.4 23-July-2010
Philippines 7.6 23-July-2010
Philippines 7.3 23-July-2010
PNG 7.3 18-July-2010
N coast, PNG 7.0 16-June-2010
Nicobar Is 7.5 12-June-2010
Vanuatu 7.1 27-May-2010
Indonesia 7.2 09-May-2010
Indonesia 7.8 06-April-2010
Baja , Mexico 7.2 04-April-2010
Bio-Bio, Chile 8.8 27-February-2010
#953
08/25/2012 (2:40 am)
There is an average of 15-20 quakes of mag 7+ on earth per year. The cycle doesn't mean the ALL of these happen on the specified days. It means that just one of 7+ on that day. I will post a proof that the 188 day cycle is no coincidence later.
#954
The closest are:
2009-09-02 Mag 7.0 (178 days)
2009-08-10 Mag 7.5 (201 days)
And 188 days before that:
2009-02-16 No Mag 7. Closest:
2009-02-18 Mag 7.0 (186 days)
2009-02-11 Mag 7.2 (193 days)
And 188 days before that:
2008-08-12 No Mag 7. Closest:
2008-07-19 Mag 7.0 (212 days)
2009-09-29 Mag 7.0 (140 days)
If you allow an error of +- 6 days, then with 15-20 Mag 7+ quakes a year, you would expect it to line up randomly about 50% of the time.
08/25/2012 (5:47 am)
188 days before 2010-02-27 - Chile - 8.8-magnitude is 2009-08-23. There is no Mag 7+ on or around that day.The closest are:
2009-09-02 Mag 7.0 (178 days)
2009-08-10 Mag 7.5 (201 days)
And 188 days before that:
2009-02-16 No Mag 7. Closest:
2009-02-18 Mag 7.0 (186 days)
2009-02-11 Mag 7.2 (193 days)
And 188 days before that:
2008-08-12 No Mag 7. Closest:
2008-07-19 Mag 7.0 (212 days)
2009-09-29 Mag 7.0 (140 days)
If you allow an error of +- 6 days, then with 15-20 Mag 7+ quakes a year, you would expect it to line up randomly about 50% of the time.
#956
The plates are moving at least slightly all around the Tokai area. If we do get the Tokai quake then the equinox is a likely time period. I've gone beyond my quake model to make an assumption here.
These quakes seem to be related to movements in the main plate that ruptured with the 9.0 in March of 2011. That plate is still moving and adding pressure to the neighboring fault lines and plates.
My model was able to predict the year but not the month of the previous tokai quakes. Since we did have two previous tokai quakes near the autumnal equinox, it may be a slight possibility.
I also expect the ion reading to pick up like they did with the last cycle. I expect these readings to go off the chart again around September 22 2012.
www.e-pisco.jp/r_ion/data/nagano_matsumoto.html
08/26/2012 (7:01 am)
@Sandy,The plates are moving at least slightly all around the Tokai area. If we do get the Tokai quake then the equinox is a likely time period. I've gone beyond my quake model to make an assumption here.
These quakes seem to be related to movements in the main plate that ruptured with the 9.0 in March of 2011. That plate is still moving and adding pressure to the neighboring fault lines and plates.
My model was able to predict the year but not the month of the previous tokai quakes. Since we did have two previous tokai quakes near the autumnal equinox, it may be a slight possibility.
I also expect the ion reading to pick up like they did with the last cycle. I expect these readings to go off the chart again around September 22 2012.
www.e-pisco.jp/r_ion/data/nagano_matsumoto.html
#957
I was referring more to an exact pinpoint 188 day cycle not having any data to back up a predictive model.
08/26/2012 (3:27 pm)
@ Britton, yes, that's fine..... looks plausible.I was referring more to an exact pinpoint 188 day cycle not having any data to back up a predictive model.
#959
-actually not even a word about nuclear power-plants.
newsonjapan.com/html/newsdesk/article/98043.php
Huge Nankai quake could kill 320,000 in Japan: gov't
Up to 323,000 people could be killed in Japan in the event of a powerful earthquake with its epicenter in the Nankai Trough off central and western parts of the country, the government said Wednesday.
The figure is far larger than the about 19,000 people who died or went missing in the wake of the catastrophic earthquake and tsunami that struck northeastern Japan on March 11, 2011. It also surpasses the government's previous estimated death toll of 24,700 in 2003.
The latest estimate was made on the assumption that a magnitude 9-class quake hits the country in the middle of the night in winter and that a massive tsunami subsequently occurs along the Pacific coast from Suruga Bay to the Kii Peninsula, the Cabinet Office said.
Of the 323,000 potential victims in 30 of Japan's 47 prefectures, the Cabinet Office predicted that about 70 percent will be killed by tsunami. In the event of such a natural disaster, it also said that about 623,000 people across Japan could suffer injuries.
08/29/2012 (2:24 pm)
Tought I'd share as it fits the topic ; they talk about a 34m tsunami. -actually not even a word about nuclear power-plants.
newsonjapan.com/html/newsdesk/article/98043.php
Huge Nankai quake could kill 320,000 in Japan: gov't
Up to 323,000 people could be killed in Japan in the event of a powerful earthquake with its epicenter in the Nankai Trough off central and western parts of the country, the government said Wednesday.
The figure is far larger than the about 19,000 people who died or went missing in the wake of the catastrophic earthquake and tsunami that struck northeastern Japan on March 11, 2011. It also surpasses the government's previous estimated death toll of 24,700 in 2003.
The latest estimate was made on the assumption that a magnitude 9-class quake hits the country in the middle of the night in winter and that a massive tsunami subsequently occurs along the Pacific coast from Suruga Bay to the Kii Peninsula, the Cabinet Office said.
Of the 323,000 potential victims in 30 of Japan's 47 prefectures, the Cabinet Office predicted that about 70 percent will be killed by tsunami. In the event of such a natural disaster, it also said that about 623,000 people across Japan could suffer injuries.
#960
Great information. This is the kind of destruction we are talking about.
I ran a query against all the quakes that were with in a few days of the September equinox greater than a magnitude 7.0. Its a surprisingly short list. The regions affected are very few:
What I find even more interesting is the location and dates in Japan:
When I plotted out the location of the 8.3 and the 8.6 magnitude earthquakes, I recognized the places instantly. It is in the middle of the two locations of the stress transfer map from the 2011 earthquake. Not funny! Very scary!
The one at the top ruptured in 2003 with a magnitude 8.3. In 2003 we had the quake at the top, stress was transferred to the location that ruptured 8 years later in March 2011 (a few days before the spring equinox)
Now in 2012 we have the all stress transferred to the Tokai region. I'm certain that the Tokai region will rupture very soon. In my opinion its nearly 90% certain by 2017.
08/29/2012 (3:53 pm)
Dennis, Great information. This is the kind of destruction we are talking about.
I ran a query against all the quakes that were with in a few days of the September equinox greater than a magnitude 7.0. Its a surprisingly short list. The regions affected are very few:
AUSTRALIA: MACQUARIE ISLAND: NORTH OF CAROLINE ISLANDS CHILE: ARICA CHILE: COPIAPO CHILE: NORTHERN: COPOAPO-CHANARAL CHINA: SHANXI PROVINCE FIJI ISLANDS GREECE: HIERISSOS-STRANTONION (CHALKIDIKI) GUATEMALA: SOUTHWEST; MEXICO: CHIAPAS INDONESIA INDONESIA: NEW GUINEA: IRIAN JAYA INDONESIA: S OF JAVA INDONESIA: SOUTHERN: PADANG INDONESIA: SUMATRA IRAN: TABAS JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA JAPAN: HOKKAIDO JAPAN: HONSH S JAPAN: KASHIMA JAPAN: NANKAIDO JAPAN: VOLCANO ISLANDS KERMADEC ISLANDS MEXICO: GUERRERO; OAXACA; PUEBLA; MEXICO CITY MEXICO: MICHOACAN: MEXICO CITY MEXICO: OAXACA MEXICO: SW COAST: MEXICO CITY MEXICO: ACAPULCO MEXICO: OAXACA MYANMAR (BURMA) NEVADA: PLEASANT VALLEY NEW CALEDONIA: LOYALTY ISLANDS NEW ZEALAND: AUCKLAND ISLANDS NICARAGUA PAPUA NEW GUINEA PER LAMAS; CHACHAPOYAS; MOYOBAMBA; TARAPOTA PER LIMA; CALLAO PERU PHILIPPINES PHILIPPINES: W. LUZON ISLAND: CAGAYAN RUSSIA: KOSH-AGACH; UST`-ULAGAN; ONGUDAI; SHEBALINO RUSSIA: KURIL ISLANDS RUSSIA: KURIL ISLANDS; JAPAN: HOKKAIDO SAMOA ISLANDS SOLOMON ISLANDS TAIWAN: TURKEY: ISTANBUL TURKMENISTAN: ASCHABAD
What I find even more interesting is the location and dates in Japan:
Quake Date MAG LAT LONG REGION --------------------------------------------------------- 2003-09-25 8.3 41.81 143.91 JAPAN: HOKKAIDO 2003-09-25 7.4 41.77 143.59 JAPAN: HOKKAIDO 2003-09-25 8.3 41.815 143.91 JAPAN: HOKKAIDO 1943-09-10 7.4 35.3 133.9 JAPAN: HONSHU: S 1498-09-20 8.6 34 138.1 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA 1498-09-20 7.5 33.5 135.2 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 1495-09-12 7.1 35.1 139.5 JAPAN: KASHIMA
When I plotted out the location of the 8.3 and the 8.6 magnitude earthquakes, I recognized the places instantly. It is in the middle of the two locations of the stress transfer map from the 2011 earthquake. Not funny! Very scary!
The one at the top ruptured in 2003 with a magnitude 8.3. In 2003 we had the quake at the top, stress was transferred to the location that ruptured 8 years later in March 2011 (a few days before the spring equinox)
Now in 2012 we have the all stress transferred to the Tokai region. I'm certain that the Tokai region will rupture very soon. In my opinion its nearly 90% certain by 2017.
Sandy