Japan Tokai Quake Predicted for late 2016 early 2017
by Britton LaRoche · 01/08/2009 (2:12 pm) · 1262 comments
Update Jan 2013: Quake Database Built and Tested! Results are Here:
Note: Our method for predicting earthquakes has failed for a Southern California earthquake in the Spring 2011 and for the Tokai earthquake in Japan, and for Istanbul in 2012. This method of predicting earthquakes is still just a theory at this point.
In spite of the setbacks over the past year, we have predicted several significant earthquakes (documented in this blog) using a lunar tidal model. An entire community of people have contributed in this blog. Together we watched earthquake patterns as we made predictions. The authors here have contributed by presenting new ideas and linked research. Together we have refined the model over time. We believe the next window for the Japan Tokai quake is now in late 2016 or early 2017.
The Tokai earthquake article quoted below is linked here: geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm
"The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 30 years.... The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2012, it has been 158 years and counting."
Utilizing the theory tha certain lunar and solar eclipse cycles create higher than normal tidal pressure in Japan, we were able to use this model to correctly account for and predict almost all of the past tokai quakes in Japan. See page 43 for the details. www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/43
Current Japan Tokai Predictions based on the Lunar Saros Eclipse Cycle 114 and the resulting tidal pressures.
In the past we were not able to pinpoint the exact location. Using the stress transfer algorithm developed by scientist Jeffrey King and his team we now believe we have a method of predicting both the time and the location. Watch the video here for an explanation.
The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
Actual
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original 2009 Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
Once the donations hit 1 million USD I will quit my full time job and dedicate myself to quake prediction. All I need is a dollar from one million people or a million dollars from one very generous billionaire. Maybe Bill Gates would be interested. ;)
View Stats
Note: Our method for predicting earthquakes has failed for a Southern California earthquake in the Spring 2011 and for the Tokai earthquake in Japan, and for Istanbul in 2012. This method of predicting earthquakes is still just a theory at this point.
In spite of the setbacks over the past year, we have predicted several significant earthquakes (documented in this blog) using a lunar tidal model. An entire community of people have contributed in this blog. Together we watched earthquake patterns as we made predictions. The authors here have contributed by presenting new ideas and linked research. Together we have refined the model over time. We believe the next window for the Japan Tokai quake is now in late 2016 or early 2017.
The Tokai earthquake article quoted below is linked here: geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm
"The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 30 years.... The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2012, it has been 158 years and counting."
Utilizing the theory tha certain lunar and solar eclipse cycles create higher than normal tidal pressure in Japan, we were able to use this model to correctly account for and predict almost all of the past tokai quakes in Japan. See page 43 for the details. www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/43
Current Japan Tokai Predictions based on the Lunar Saros Eclipse Cycle 114 and the resulting tidal pressures.
PREDICTED QUAKE_DATE ECLIPSE_DATE DAYS SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2016-11-19 1498-09-20 1498-12-13 -84 114 8.6 34 138.1 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA 2016-11-19 1498-09-20 1498-12-13 -84 114 7.5 33.5 135.2 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 2017-04-01 1854-12-24 1854-11-20 34 140 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN 2017-04-02 1854-12-24 1854-11-04 50 114 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN
In the past we were not able to pinpoint the exact location. Using the stress transfer algorithm developed by scientist Jeffrey King and his team we now believe we have a method of predicting both the time and the location. Watch the video here for an explanation.
The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
PREDICTED ORIGIN SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-08 1916-04-21 118 7.8 33 141 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
Actual
DATE SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-11 118 9.0 38.30 142.37 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original 2009 Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Magnitude 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
Quote:
Tidal forces may have contributed to triggering the devastating magnitude 9.0 Sumatra earthquake of 2004 and other large earthquakes in the region. Gravitational pull from the Sun and the Moon not only is responsible for ocean tides but also creates Earth tides, slight motions of the solid Earth (bulges and dips in the earth's crust and upper mantle) that can lead to stress buildup (or stress relief) along faults.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Quote:
doi:10.1029/2009GL041581
The frequency distribution of tidal phase angles in the pre-event period exhibited a peak near the angle where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault slip. This implies that the high correlation observed in the pre-seismic stage is not a stochastic chance but is likely a physical consequence of the tidal stress change.
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
Once the donations hit 1 million USD I will quit my full time job and dedicate myself to quake prediction. All I need is a dollar from one million people or a million dollars from one very generous billionaire. Maybe Bill Gates would be interested. ;)
#922
I'm looking more into the data around saros 140 to verify that the correlation between this saros and the Tokai quake is not coincidental. The 140 saros has not been in the same latitude.
I'm not sure what to make of the previous predictions always getting a couple of months off of the predictions. What is interesting is that when saros 114 has that latitude and the pressure build up is 100 years +or minus 30, my predictions work for the past Tokai quakes.
I'm pretty sure Saros 114 is correlated. I'm not as sure about Saros 140. I'm doing some more research to see if its not just a coincidence.
I'm certain that if we don't get the Tokai quake in the next few months that we will get it in 2017 when saros 114 produces its next eclipse.
What I can say for sure is I'm not seeing anything that makes me think we are about to see the Tokai quake right now. No magnetic disturbances. No quakes in the pre-slip region. No abnormally high tides.
07/27/2012 (9:52 pm)
Back from vacation. I ran queries against the database and found more correlations between Saros 114 and the tokai quake. The eclipse latitude was always between 1.5N and 22N when the earthquake was associated with Saros 114.I'm looking more into the data around saros 140 to verify that the correlation between this saros and the Tokai quake is not coincidental. The 140 saros has not been in the same latitude.
I'm not sure what to make of the previous predictions always getting a couple of months off of the predictions. What is interesting is that when saros 114 has that latitude and the pressure build up is 100 years +or minus 30, my predictions work for the past Tokai quakes.
I'm pretty sure Saros 114 is correlated. I'm not as sure about Saros 140. I'm doing some more research to see if its not just a coincidence.
I'm certain that if we don't get the Tokai quake in the next few months that we will get it in 2017 when saros 114 produces its next eclipse.
What I can say for sure is I'm not seeing anything that makes me think we are about to see the Tokai quake right now. No magnetic disturbances. No quakes in the pre-slip region. No abnormally high tides.
#923
07/28/2012 (11:20 pm)
Welcome back Britton. I am new to your blog but I have been accessing it since March 2011. I live right in western Tokyo at Yokota AB. I also have a gut feeling that another big one will hit somewhere in Japan, and even Mt Fuji might come back to life one of these days. There have been plenty of TV documentaries about "what if a big one strikes and what if Mt Fuji erupts" in the Japanese TV stations. We even had joint US Forces Japan and Tokyo Disaster Agency Earthquake drill. It must be a validation that in fact something is expected anytime soon.
#924
If this blog, in any way shape or form, helps prepare for an earthquake and saves lives then I am honored and all this work was worth it. Please let us know of any future drills. Based on my database queries, I believe that if we do not get this quake now we will get it for sure in 2017. The rest of the scientific community agrees that the Tokai quake is imminent. Its up to teams and drills like this to make a difference.
What interests me most is that my database (as far as the Tokai quake is concerned) has always been off by a few months, but it did correctly predict the year in which the tokai quake occurred for many of the past Tokai quakes. I believe that the eclipse saros within a certain angle is responsible for setting things in motion that trigger the Tokai quake.
Out of all the eclipse saros series, only saros 114 and 140 seem to be correlated. I really think I am on to something. I'm just not seeing any of the precursor activities like magnetic disturbances or pre-slip quake rumbles.
07/29/2012 (1:35 pm)
Hector,If this blog, in any way shape or form, helps prepare for an earthquake and saves lives then I am honored and all this work was worth it. Please let us know of any future drills. Based on my database queries, I believe that if we do not get this quake now we will get it for sure in 2017. The rest of the scientific community agrees that the Tokai quake is imminent. Its up to teams and drills like this to make a difference.
What interests me most is that my database (as far as the Tokai quake is concerned) has always been off by a few months, but it did correctly predict the year in which the tokai quake occurred for many of the past Tokai quakes. I believe that the eclipse saros within a certain angle is responsible for setting things in motion that trigger the Tokai quake.
Out of all the eclipse saros series, only saros 114 and 140 seem to be correlated. I really think I am on to something. I'm just not seeing any of the precursor activities like magnetic disturbances or pre-slip quake rumbles.
#925
Preigee: Jul 29 8:31 367317 km
Full Moon: 2012 Aug 2 3:27
07/29/2012 (1:40 pm)
Today the moon reaches perigee (its closest approach in orbit to the earth) at 367,317 km. On August 2nd it reaches another full moon syzygy. I have no idea what to expect. I think its safe from what I have seen so far.Preigee: Jul 29 8:31 367317 km
Full Moon: 2012 Aug 2 3:27
#926
07/29/2012 (3:09 pm)
There's been quite a few small quakes (4.5 -4.9) in the area of Sendai, and Tokyo in the last week and a half. Maybe 8 or so.
#928
My theory is that the quiet area typically does not get as many smaller quakes. It gets one giant mother of a quake every 100 to 150 years or so. The northern part of the country had one heck of a quake and is sliding more and more into the quiet area that pops violently. Its just a matter of time before we have enough pressure.
I'd change its name from the Tokai quake to the stubborn quake. The name more aptly describes its behavior. It wont budge, it wont move until it just completely breaks.
07/29/2012 (7:49 pm)
Well, the tidal forces are picking up, we'd expect a few quakes. The location tells us that the sendai fault lines and plates are moving, but the tokai region's plate and fault lines are not moving much at all. My theory is that the quiet area typically does not get as many smaller quakes. It gets one giant mother of a quake every 100 to 150 years or so. The northern part of the country had one heck of a quake and is sliding more and more into the quiet area that pops violently. Its just a matter of time before we have enough pressure.
I'd change its name from the Tokai quake to the stubborn quake. The name more aptly describes its behavior. It wont budge, it wont move until it just completely breaks.
#929
www.kickstarter.com/
You would be able to get more data and therefore calculate more accurate results.
07/31/2012 (5:55 am)
btw, have you already thought about getting funding for your research on quakes ?www.kickstarter.com/
You would be able to get more data and therefore calculate more accurate results.
#930
So here is what happened in 1854:
1854 Nov 04 Lunar Eclipse 114 Saros
1854 Nov 20 Solar Eclipse 140 Saros
1854 Dec 19 New Moon Syzygy
1854 Dec 21 Perigee 359,338 KM
1854 Dec 24 Tokai Quake
This far we have not fallen in that window. I'm starting to think saros 114 is the one that correlates correctly.
Full moon Syzygy today on August 2nd 2012
08/01/2012 (10:29 pm)
Dennis, good ideas are always appreciated. My donate button has generated $0.00 so kickstarter would almost certainly be better. At worst it would be as good as my donate button.So here is what happened in 1854:
1854 Nov 04 Lunar Eclipse 114 Saros
1854 Nov 20 Solar Eclipse 140 Saros
1854 Dec 19 New Moon Syzygy
1854 Dec 21 Perigee 359,338 KM
1854 Dec 24 Tokai Quake
This far we have not fallen in that window. I'm starting to think saros 114 is the one that correlates correctly.
Full moon Syzygy today on August 2nd 2012
#931
08/02/2012 (5:00 am)
I wouldnt be so quick to write off your research, I think that there is a good chance the timing may be a little off- and not the event.
#932
08/02/2012 (4:24 pm)
Britton, can you post the 2012 dates for the Lunar/solar for different saros cycles, new moon, & perigee data as well?
#933
08/03/2012 (4:56 pm)
There was a Mag 4.9 right in the northern suburbs of Tokyo last night. Was easily felt down in Yokohama.
#934
Magnitude 4.9
3km ENE of Noda, Japan
2012-08-03 13:19:36
35.953N 139.891E
Here are the quakes in Japan greater than magnitude 6.9 that my quake database pulled up
08/03/2012 (9:22 pm)
@Sandy, yeah I see it.Magnitude 4.9
3km ENE of Noda, Japan
2012-08-03 13:19:36
35.953N 139.891E
Here are the quakes in Japan greater than magnitude 6.9 that my quake database pulled up
PREDICTED QUAKE_DATE ECLIPSE_DATE DAYS SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2012-08-01 1994-07-21 1994-05-25 58 140 7.3 42.34 132.87 2012-08-05 1989-11-01 1989-08-17 77 128 7.4 39.83 142.76 JAPAN: HONSHU: N; AOMORI; MISAWA 2012-08-06 1927-03-07 1927-01-03 63 140 7.3 35.6 135.1 JAPAN: HONSHU: SW 2012-09-14 1940-08-01 1940-10-01 -60 133 7.5 44.2 139.5 JAPAN: W. HOKKAIDO ISLAND 2012-09-20 1953-11-25 1954-01-19 -54 133 7.4 34 141.7 JAPAN: KASHIMA
#935
@Sandy I'm kind of blown away by the query I just ran. Never seen anything like it. It looks like this is a very repeatable pattern with Saros 140 and minor quakes around Tokyo. I could almost bet money we see one or two more.
We had several in 1976, 1981, 1994 and 1999. In other words we will probably see 1 to 5 more magnitude 4.5 quakes within 195 miles of Tokyo over the next few weeks.
What I found most curious is why it started only in 1976... and then it hit me. 1973 is when the USGS database started.
But here you go... this does support my theory of a repeatable pattern with Saros 140. Look at the number of times per year and the number of days between quakes. Typically the next quake is within 3 days...
Based on this data I'd say we get another 4.5 or above within 3 degrees of latitude and longitude of Tokyo in the next 72 hours.
Here are the number of mag 4.5+ quakes within 3 degrees of Tokyo 62 to 83 days after saros 140 by year.
1976 - 6
1981 - 2
1994 - 1
1999 - 6
Although a 4.5 is a significant quake, predicting one is no big deal. We get plenty of 4.5 quakes a year. One could say its just a coincidence. According to the USGS we get about 13,000 each year.
earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/year/eqstats.php
The big money is on the Tokai quake we only get that every 150 years or so. If I hit that, its no coincidence.
08/03/2012 (10:03 pm)
@Rob yeah you may be right. @Sandy I'm kind of blown away by the query I just ran. Never seen anything like it. It looks like this is a very repeatable pattern with Saros 140 and minor quakes around Tokyo. I could almost bet money we see one or two more.
We had several in 1976, 1981, 1994 and 1999. In other words we will probably see 1 to 5 more magnitude 4.5 quakes within 195 miles of Tokyo over the next few weeks.
PREDICTED QUAKE_DATE ECLIPSE_DATE DAYS SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2012-08-04 1981-04-05 1981-02-04 61 140 4.6 34.67 140.41 2012-08-05 1976-07-14 1976-05-13 62 140 5.0 36.04 139.85 2012-08-05 1999-04-18 1999-02-16 62 140 4.8 34.19 139.46 2012-08-08 1976-07-16 1976-05-13 65 140 5.0 33.04 141.54 2012-08-09 1976-07-18 1976-05-13 66 140 4.6 36.29 139.83 2012-08-11 1999-04-25 1999-02-16 68 140 4.6 35.43 140.12 2012-08-12 1981-04-14 1981-02-04 69 140 4.7 35.42 138.93 2012-08-12 1999-04-25 1999-02-16 69 140 5.3 36.44 140.47 2012-08-13 1999-04-27 1999-02-16 70 140 4.7 35.10 141.17 2012-08-17 1994-08-06 1994-05-25 74 140 4.6 35.55 140.78 2012-08-21 1976-07-30 1976-05-13 78 140 4.9 32.42 137.82 2012-08-24 1999-05-07 1999-02-16 81 140 4.8 35.09 138.14 2012-08-26 1976-08-03 1976-05-13 83 140 4.8 36.20 139.77 2012-08-26 1999-05-10 1999-02-16 83 140 4.8 37.58 141.77 2012-08-27 1976-08-05 1976-05-13 84 140 4.9 32.46 141.26
What I found most curious is why it started only in 1976... and then it hit me. 1973 is when the USGS database started.
But here you go... this does support my theory of a repeatable pattern with Saros 140. Look at the number of times per year and the number of days between quakes. Typically the next quake is within 3 days...
PREDICTED QUAKE_DATE ECLIPSE_DATE DAYS SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2012-08-05 1999-04-18 1999-02-16 62 140 4.8 34.19 139.46 2012-08-11 1999-04-25 1999-02-16 68 140 4.6 35.43 140.12 2012-08-12 1999-04-25 1999-02-16 69 140 5.3 36.44 140.47 2012-08-13 1999-04-27 1999-02-16 70 140 4.7 35.10 141.17 2012-08-24 1999-05-07 1999-02-16 81 140 4.8 35.09 138.14 2012-08-26 1999-05-10 1999-02-16 83 140 4.8 37.58 141.77
Based on this data I'd say we get another 4.5 or above within 3 degrees of latitude and longitude of Tokyo in the next 72 hours.
Here are the number of mag 4.5+ quakes within 3 degrees of Tokyo 62 to 83 days after saros 140 by year.
1976 - 6
1981 - 2
1994 - 1
1999 - 6
Although a 4.5 is a significant quake, predicting one is no big deal. We get plenty of 4.5 quakes a year. One could say its just a coincidence. According to the USGS we get about 13,000 each year.
earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/year/eqstats.php
The big money is on the Tokai quake we only get that every 150 years or so. If I hit that, its no coincidence.
#937
08/05/2012 (11:26 pm)
There's also been Mag 5.3, 5.0 & 4.7 in the Ryukyu Island south of Kyushu in the last few hours. They're in about the same place as a 5.0+ last week.
#938
Thx
08/06/2012 (2:51 am)
Britton, how close will you get if you run that same query backwards starting from the Mag 4.7 Sandy Referenced that we just had near Tokyo- to the last Great Tokai earthquake 150 years ago. Will the data be off by a factor of months, or days. Just curious.Thx
#939
08/06/2012 (11:42 am)
This is very odd. I just recieved a Namazu Alert for an East China Sea quake of 7.1. After about 5 minutes the message disappeared, I checked USGS and the Japanese EQ center and there is no such quake... Very strange... There were two in Okinawa, but very small.
#940
08/06/2012 (2:55 pm)
@ Rob Hedge. I think it's impossible.... I'd say we've had maybe 15 small quakes (between 4.5-4.9) within 80km of Tokyo just in the last 4 months. In the period following the Big One last year until the end of 2011, my guess would be more than 100 4.5-4.9 quakes within 80km of Tokyo. So in my opinion, a single quake of 4.7 is just noise in the greater scheme of things. 
John