Japan Tokai Quake Predicted for late 2016 early 2017
by Britton LaRoche · 01/08/2009 (2:12 pm) · 1262 comments
Update Jan 2013: Quake Database Built and Tested! Results are Here:
Note: Our method for predicting earthquakes has failed for a Southern California earthquake in the Spring 2011 and for the Tokai earthquake in Japan, and for Istanbul in 2012. This method of predicting earthquakes is still just a theory at this point.
In spite of the setbacks over the past year, we have predicted several significant earthquakes (documented in this blog) using a lunar tidal model. An entire community of people have contributed in this blog. Together we watched earthquake patterns as we made predictions. The authors here have contributed by presenting new ideas and linked research. Together we have refined the model over time. We believe the next window for the Japan Tokai quake is now in late 2016 or early 2017.
The Tokai earthquake article quoted below is linked here: geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm
"The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 30 years.... The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2012, it has been 158 years and counting."
Utilizing the theory tha certain lunar and solar eclipse cycles create higher than normal tidal pressure in Japan, we were able to use this model to correctly account for and predict almost all of the past tokai quakes in Japan. See page 43 for the details. www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/43
Current Japan Tokai Predictions based on the Lunar Saros Eclipse Cycle 114 and the resulting tidal pressures.
In the past we were not able to pinpoint the exact location. Using the stress transfer algorithm developed by scientist Jeffrey King and his team we now believe we have a method of predicting both the time and the location. Watch the video here for an explanation.
The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
Actual
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original 2009 Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
Once the donations hit 1 million USD I will quit my full time job and dedicate myself to quake prediction. All I need is a dollar from one million people or a million dollars from one very generous billionaire. Maybe Bill Gates would be interested. ;)
View Stats
Note: Our method for predicting earthquakes has failed for a Southern California earthquake in the Spring 2011 and for the Tokai earthquake in Japan, and for Istanbul in 2012. This method of predicting earthquakes is still just a theory at this point.
In spite of the setbacks over the past year, we have predicted several significant earthquakes (documented in this blog) using a lunar tidal model. An entire community of people have contributed in this blog. Together we watched earthquake patterns as we made predictions. The authors here have contributed by presenting new ideas and linked research. Together we have refined the model over time. We believe the next window for the Japan Tokai quake is now in late 2016 or early 2017.
The Tokai earthquake article quoted below is linked here: geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm
"The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 30 years.... The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2012, it has been 158 years and counting."
Utilizing the theory tha certain lunar and solar eclipse cycles create higher than normal tidal pressure in Japan, we were able to use this model to correctly account for and predict almost all of the past tokai quakes in Japan. See page 43 for the details. www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/43
Current Japan Tokai Predictions based on the Lunar Saros Eclipse Cycle 114 and the resulting tidal pressures.
PREDICTED QUAKE_DATE ECLIPSE_DATE DAYS SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2016-11-19 1498-09-20 1498-12-13 -84 114 8.6 34 138.1 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA 2016-11-19 1498-09-20 1498-12-13 -84 114 7.5 33.5 135.2 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 2017-04-01 1854-12-24 1854-11-20 34 140 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN 2017-04-02 1854-12-24 1854-11-04 50 114 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN
In the past we were not able to pinpoint the exact location. Using the stress transfer algorithm developed by scientist Jeffrey King and his team we now believe we have a method of predicting both the time and the location. Watch the video here for an explanation.
The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
PREDICTED ORIGIN SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-08 1916-04-21 118 7.8 33 141 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
Actual
DATE SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-11 118 9.0 38.30 142.37 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original 2009 Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Magnitude 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
Quote:
Tidal forces may have contributed to triggering the devastating magnitude 9.0 Sumatra earthquake of 2004 and other large earthquakes in the region. Gravitational pull from the Sun and the Moon not only is responsible for ocean tides but also creates Earth tides, slight motions of the solid Earth (bulges and dips in the earth's crust and upper mantle) that can lead to stress buildup (or stress relief) along faults.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Quote:
doi:10.1029/2009GL041581
The frequency distribution of tidal phase angles in the pre-event period exhibited a peak near the angle where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault slip. This implies that the high correlation observed in the pre-seismic stage is not a stochastic chance but is likely a physical consequence of the tidal stress change.
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
Once the donations hit 1 million USD I will quit my full time job and dedicate myself to quake prediction. All I need is a dollar from one million people or a million dollars from one very generous billionaire. Maybe Bill Gates would be interested. ;)
#902
If the maximum tidal fluctuation is from 0 to 2 meters over a tectonic plate and the typhoon adds another 2 meters then we might get a 4 meter fluctuation, basically doubling the effect of a high tide over the tectonic late or fault line. That might trigger a quake already waiting to happen.
Great comments guys. Work is keeping me busy and I'll be on vacation next week at the beach with my boys. When the 19th comes I'll be showing the effects of the Syzygy to my kids. I'll keep an eye open.
I'd say the 19th and August 2nd are our two next points of interest. If the previous Tokai quakes are an example then the next danger period is July 17th - 24th 2012.
07/11/2012 (9:03 pm)
@Seneq, interesting information about typhoons. I think as sandy mentioned the big impact is probably the amount of water they push about at sea. If the maximum tidal fluctuation is from 0 to 2 meters over a tectonic plate and the typhoon adds another 2 meters then we might get a 4 meter fluctuation, basically doubling the effect of a high tide over the tectonic late or fault line. That might trigger a quake already waiting to happen.
Great comments guys. Work is keeping me busy and I'll be on vacation next week at the beach with my boys. When the 19th comes I'll be showing the effects of the Syzygy to my kids. I'll keep an eye open.
I'd say the 19th and August 2nd are our two next points of interest. If the previous Tokai quakes are an example then the next danger period is July 17th - 24th 2012.
#903
07/11/2012 (10:58 pm)
There's been a Mag 4.5 just outside the suburbs of Tokyo. Coupled with the small one yesterday, it will be interesting to see if there's a flurry of small quakes just near Tokyo, similar to what was happening a few weeks back.
#904
Have fun on your vacation.
07/13/2012 (7:09 pm)
Britton, actually I think I might have mentioned that information to you some time ago, but just cannot remember, but it was worth repeating. Indeed it is mostly due to the amount of water being pushed up causing excessive weight, doubling the effect of a high tide would definitely cause disruptions.Have fun on your vacation.
#905
www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/images/japan/20120714130831391-141304.png
07/13/2012 (9:11 pm)
Actually was just another M4 near nagano/niigata where the 4 quakes have been some days agowww.jma.go.jp/en/quake/images/japan/20120714130831391-141304.png
#906
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Maps/10/140_35.php
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/00000000091.html
07/15/2012 (1:41 pm)
Mag 4.8 event north of Tokyo in the last hour.http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Maps/10/140_35.php
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/00000000091.html
#907
I thought something woke me up!!!!!
This was the sort of flurry activity near Tokyo that I was talking about, in my post on July 11th. But that's only the third one in 6 days. And taken in isolation, a 4.8 is not big.
I'll be interested to see if we have more of this sort of activity in the next 3-4 days.
07/15/2012 (6:53 pm)
@ Marilyn.I thought something woke me up!!!!!
This was the sort of flurry activity near Tokyo that I was talking about, in my post on July 11th. But that's only the third one in 6 days. And taken in isolation, a 4.8 is not big.
I'll be interested to see if we have more of this sort of activity in the next 3-4 days.
#908
the chrome extension mentioned it well though
07/15/2012 (7:45 pm)
dunno why - but the last 10seconds program didnt work this time. the chrome extension mentioned it well though
#909
lets see which quake comes first - the govt seems to take the threat of a coming quake in tokyo serious
update
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/nwpac/flash-wv.html
seems some hotspot near tokyo
07/16/2012 (9:42 pm)
www.japantoday.com/category/national/view/sdf-u-s-military-team-up-for-tokyo-qua... lets see which quake comes first - the govt seems to take the threat of a coming quake in tokyo serious
update
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/nwpac/flash-wv.html
seems some hotspot near tokyo
#910
http://lang-8.com/33465/journals/1284520
Talks about the prediction of a big quake near tokyo, and includes comparisons between earthquake readiness in Osaka & Tokyo:
"When some friends of mine who were raised in Osaka moved to Tokyo, all of them told me that the frequency of earthquakes in Tokyo was much higher than in Osaka. They said that they were surprised to see that Tokyo people were used to earthquakes. At the time, people in Tokyo paid more attention to preparing themselves for earthquakes than in Osaka.
I've been recently living in the Tokyo area, but I was raised mainly in Osaka. I don't remember I felt earthquakes in childhood. I'm sure I had them, but I don't think they were strong enough to shock me. In contrast, my friend who was raised in the Tokyo area says that even when he was a child, he already considered earthquakes to be meant to happen."
07/17/2012 (3:48 pm)
An interesting article:http://lang-8.com/33465/journals/1284520
Talks about the prediction of a big quake near tokyo, and includes comparisons between earthquake readiness in Osaka & Tokyo:
"When some friends of mine who were raised in Osaka moved to Tokyo, all of them told me that the frequency of earthquakes in Tokyo was much higher than in Osaka. They said that they were surprised to see that Tokyo people were used to earthquakes. At the time, people in Tokyo paid more attention to preparing themselves for earthquakes than in Osaka.
I've been recently living in the Tokyo area, but I was raised mainly in Osaka. I don't remember I felt earthquakes in childhood. I'm sure I had them, but I don't think they were strong enough to shock me. In contrast, my friend who was raised in the Tokyo area says that even when he was a child, he already considered earthquakes to be meant to happen."
#911
These maps represent a composite of absorption by water vapor.
Imagery on satellite maps generally provide three different optical bands:
- Visible (520 - 720 nm)
- Water Vapor (6470 - 7020 nm, which is infrared, so you can see the cloud even at night time)
- Infra Red (10200 - 12500 nm, heat)
The typical satellite infrared images showing water vapor absorption is not what we are after.
If I am not mistaken, we are after the NOAA satellite charts that show the 10200 - 12500 nm band.
07/17/2012 (4:11 pm)
There seems to be some misconception about which infrared maps to look at. The Infrared water vapor charts show infrared (posted by Dennis, http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/nwpac/flash-wv.html) related to cloud density. The red false colour indicates an area of very high cloud density, usually a storm.These maps represent a composite of absorption by water vapor.
Imagery on satellite maps generally provide three different optical bands:
- Visible (520 - 720 nm)
- Water Vapor (6470 - 7020 nm, which is infrared, so you can see the cloud even at night time)
- Infra Red (10200 - 12500 nm, heat)
The typical satellite infrared images showing water vapor absorption is not what we are after.
If I am not mistaken, we are after the NOAA satellite charts that show the 10200 - 12500 nm band.
#912
As for the theory with rainfall and earthquakes - there has been a lot of rain in the south of japan. I cannot see any increased EQ activity there however.. it seems the percentage of influence of rain on EQs is not that high.
BTW - here another interesting news to nuclear plants on EQ fault lines
newsonjapan.com/html/newsdesk/article/97441.php
07/18/2012 (7:18 am)
@sandy: If you can find a map that shows the right range let me know. I didnt find one so far.As for the theory with rainfall and earthquakes - there has been a lot of rain in the south of japan. I cannot see any increased EQ activity there however.. it seems the percentage of influence of rain on EQs is not that high.
BTW - here another interesting news to nuclear plants on EQ fault lines
newsonjapan.com/html/newsdesk/article/97441.php
#914
Regarding a hypothetical quake striking very close to Tokyo I stumbled on this the other day: usgsprojects.org/fragment/
To summarize it, some scientists believe that there's a slab fragment wedged between the pacific plate and the philippine plate, just underneath Tokyo, which could trigger earthquakes etc. There's also a pretty nice video showing of their theory on that site to.
07/20/2012 (8:16 pm)
Yea, the latest 2 weeks we've seen allot of quakes in this area, I wonder if there's anything "going on"...Regarding a hypothetical quake striking very close to Tokyo I stumbled on this the other day: usgsprojects.org/fragment/
To summarize it, some scientists believe that there's a slab fragment wedged between the pacific plate and the philippine plate, just underneath Tokyo, which could trigger earthquakes etc. There's also a pretty nice video showing of their theory on that site to.
#915
07/24/2012 (3:33 pm)
Seems to be a cluster of four 4.5-4.9 quakes just off Sendai in the last few days.
#916
Just noticed that Brittons Blog is the most popular blog on garagegames :P
It beats all game related stuff!
07/24/2012 (3:55 pm)
www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/21791Just noticed that Brittons Blog is the most popular blog on garagegames :P
It beats all game related stuff!
#917
Did you catch the 4.7 mag event that just occurrred in the southern part of Japan? I believe that's where you were expecting some stress transfer activity.
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/20120726022537491-260220.html
USGS calls it a 4.9 mag event.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Maps/10/130_35.php
07/25/2012 (12:05 pm)
@Britton: Did you catch the 4.7 mag event that just occurrred in the southern part of Japan? I believe that's where you were expecting some stress transfer activity.
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/20120726022537491-260220.html
USGS calls it a 4.9 mag event.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Maps/10/130_35.php
#918
I think this is maybe more interesting....
07/25/2012 (5:37 pm)
@ Marilyn, it's still a small isolated one at this stage. On the other hand, in the area off Sendai, there's been 5 smaller quakes all clustered close to each other since last Thursday: 4.7, 4.9, 4.7, 4.5, 4.7I think this is maybe more interesting....
#919
Did anyone find satellite images in the proper infrared range in the meantime?
07/25/2012 (6:15 pm)
But Sendai is active permanently since last march. Not sure this can be a signal. Did anyone find satellite images in the proper infrared range in the meantime?
Sandy
You have to remember, we had maybe 700 Mag 5+ after the big one last year. (including around 70 Mag 6+)
On the other hand, if we had a cluster of 20-30 larger than Mag 4.5, then that would be significant.