Japan Tokai Quake Predicted for late 2016 early 2017
by Britton LaRoche · 01/08/2009 (2:12 pm) · 1262 comments
Update Jan 2013: Quake Database Built and Tested! Results are Here:
Note: Our method for predicting earthquakes has failed for a Southern California earthquake in the Spring 2011 and for the Tokai earthquake in Japan, and for Istanbul in 2012. This method of predicting earthquakes is still just a theory at this point.
In spite of the setbacks over the past year, we have predicted several significant earthquakes (documented in this blog) using a lunar tidal model. An entire community of people have contributed in this blog. Together we watched earthquake patterns as we made predictions. The authors here have contributed by presenting new ideas and linked research. Together we have refined the model over time. We believe the next window for the Japan Tokai quake is now in late 2016 or early 2017.
The Tokai earthquake article quoted below is linked here: geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm
"The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 30 years.... The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2012, it has been 158 years and counting."
Utilizing the theory tha certain lunar and solar eclipse cycles create higher than normal tidal pressure in Japan, we were able to use this model to correctly account for and predict almost all of the past tokai quakes in Japan. See page 43 for the details. www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/43
Current Japan Tokai Predictions based on the Lunar Saros Eclipse Cycle 114 and the resulting tidal pressures.
In the past we were not able to pinpoint the exact location. Using the stress transfer algorithm developed by scientist Jeffrey King and his team we now believe we have a method of predicting both the time and the location. Watch the video here for an explanation.
The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
Actual
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original 2009 Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
Once the donations hit 1 million USD I will quit my full time job and dedicate myself to quake prediction. All I need is a dollar from one million people or a million dollars from one very generous billionaire. Maybe Bill Gates would be interested. ;)
View Stats
Note: Our method for predicting earthquakes has failed for a Southern California earthquake in the Spring 2011 and for the Tokai earthquake in Japan, and for Istanbul in 2012. This method of predicting earthquakes is still just a theory at this point.
In spite of the setbacks over the past year, we have predicted several significant earthquakes (documented in this blog) using a lunar tidal model. An entire community of people have contributed in this blog. Together we watched earthquake patterns as we made predictions. The authors here have contributed by presenting new ideas and linked research. Together we have refined the model over time. We believe the next window for the Japan Tokai quake is now in late 2016 or early 2017.
The Tokai earthquake article quoted below is linked here: geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm
"The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 30 years.... The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2012, it has been 158 years and counting."
Utilizing the theory tha certain lunar and solar eclipse cycles create higher than normal tidal pressure in Japan, we were able to use this model to correctly account for and predict almost all of the past tokai quakes in Japan. See page 43 for the details. www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/43
Current Japan Tokai Predictions based on the Lunar Saros Eclipse Cycle 114 and the resulting tidal pressures.
PREDICTED QUAKE_DATE ECLIPSE_DATE DAYS SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2016-11-19 1498-09-20 1498-12-13 -84 114 8.6 34 138.1 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA 2016-11-19 1498-09-20 1498-12-13 -84 114 7.5 33.5 135.2 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 2017-04-01 1854-12-24 1854-11-20 34 140 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN 2017-04-02 1854-12-24 1854-11-04 50 114 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN
In the past we were not able to pinpoint the exact location. Using the stress transfer algorithm developed by scientist Jeffrey King and his team we now believe we have a method of predicting both the time and the location. Watch the video here for an explanation.
The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
PREDICTED ORIGIN SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-08 1916-04-21 118 7.8 33 141 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
Actual
DATE SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-11 118 9.0 38.30 142.37 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original 2009 Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Magnitude 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
Quote:
Tidal forces may have contributed to triggering the devastating magnitude 9.0 Sumatra earthquake of 2004 and other large earthquakes in the region. Gravitational pull from the Sun and the Moon not only is responsible for ocean tides but also creates Earth tides, slight motions of the solid Earth (bulges and dips in the earth's crust and upper mantle) that can lead to stress buildup (or stress relief) along faults.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Quote:
doi:10.1029/2009GL041581
The frequency distribution of tidal phase angles in the pre-event period exhibited a peak near the angle where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault slip. This implies that the high correlation observed in the pre-seismic stage is not a stochastic chance but is likely a physical consequence of the tidal stress change.
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
Once the donations hit 1 million USD I will quit my full time job and dedicate myself to quake prediction. All I need is a dollar from one million people or a million dollars from one very generous billionaire. Maybe Bill Gates would be interested. ;)
#422
Magnitude 6.8
Date-Time Thursday, March 24, 2011 at 13:55:12 UTC
Thursday, March 24, 2011 at 08:25:12 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 20.705N, 99.94E
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles)
Region MYANMAR
Distances 89 km (55 miles) N of Chiang Rai, Thailand
Unfortunately I did not predict it with the rest on February 10th. I can't count it as a prediction because I posted the results after the quake. The important thing to remember is that the theory is correct, and it needs to be refined include the past two saros cycles and the next two saros cycles.
03/24/2011 (2:15 pm)
Peter, Ah I see, so it is a 6.8.Magnitude 6.8
Date-Time Thursday, March 24, 2011 at 13:55:12 UTC
Thursday, March 24, 2011 at 08:25:12 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 20.705N, 99.94E
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles)
Region MYANMAR
Distances 89 km (55 miles) N of Chiang Rai, Thailand
Unfortunately I did not predict it with the rest on February 10th. I can't count it as a prediction because I posted the results after the quake. The important thing to remember is that the theory is correct, and it needs to be refined include the past two saros cycles and the next two saros cycles.
#423
If my theory is correct then the reason we are having so many catastrophic quakes is because of the lunar gravitational effects on earth. In 2009 we had a triple eclipse. This kept tidal forces at their maximim for over 6 weeks. I think it loosened the plates in such away that we had the massive quakes in Hati, Chili and Japan.
Now we are headed for another triple eclipse.
03/24/2011 (2:34 pm)
Okay so its now time to panic. I just looked at the eclipse data to refine my predictions.ECLIPSE_DATE TYPE OBS SAROS ---------------------------------- 2010-12-21 LUNAR Total 125 2011-01-04 SOLAR Partial 151 2011-06-01 SOLAR Partial 118 2011-06-15 LUNAR Total 130 2011-07-01 SOLAR Pb 156
If my theory is correct then the reason we are having so many catastrophic quakes is because of the lunar gravitational effects on earth. In 2009 we had a triple eclipse. This kept tidal forces at their maximim for over 6 weeks. I think it loosened the plates in such away that we had the massive quakes in Hati, Chili and Japan.
Now we are headed for another triple eclipse.
#424
But here is what I think is going on in on Haiti, or what I call the "Caribbean quakes." When I first started researching the eclipse earthquake theory I figured we would be able to produce a quake when the maximum tidal forces were at play. This would happen at lunar perigee when the moon was in its closest orbit to earth, and at perihelion when the earth was in its closest orbit to the sun. Toss in a solar eclipse and you have the maximum of the maximum gravitational pull on the earth.
I found the such an eclipse on January 14th 1907. I also found a quake.
January 14th 1907 was a total Eclipse. Lunar Perigee was on Jan 13th 1907. January is Perihelion. eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEplot/SEplot1901/SE1907Jan14T.GIF
After looking at this for awhile I realized the exact location of the eclipse is not important. The entire earth spins under this gravitational pull the whole day, the moon moves a very few degrees in its orbit.
So we got an earthquake on the same day of the eclipse. The 1907 Kingston earthquake which shook the capital of the island of Jamaica with a magnitude of 6.5 on the moment magnitude scale on Monday January 14th, at about 3:30 PM local time (21:36 UTC), was considered by many writers of that time one of the world's deadliest earthquakes recorded in history. Every building in Kingston was damaged by the earthquake and subsequent fires, which lasted for three hours before any efforts were made to check them, culminated in the death of 800 to 1,000 people, and left approximately 10,000 homeless and $25,000,000 in material damage. Shortly after, a tsunami was reported on the north coast of Jamaica, with a maximum wave height of about 2 m (6-8 ft).
Wikipedia on the Jan 14 1907 quake that burned Kingston to the ground
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1907_Kingston_earthquake
Magnetic Disturbance
www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/1907/TE012i002p00080-01.shtml
Perigee Calculator
www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc.html
Perihelion and Perigee with eclipse
Jan 13 2:17 359140 km N-1d 3h
Its not just a coincidence. We dont get an earthquake with each eclipse, we just get them with some of the eclipses.
So what was the saros? I'll let everyone do the research on their own. Compare the saros of the 2010 Hati Quake to the 1907 Kingston quake. Who wants to bet we have a match?
Now the moon was not in the exact same position. I'm thinking its the PATH the moon travels in it orbit, that loosens the plates. It pulls in a certain direction with each saros, its the geometry of the movement, and the physics over time that causes the quakes.
What we have is a correlation between the moons orbit, magnetic disturbances and quakes. I think the theory holds water.
03/24/2011 (2:44 pm)
I do believe I could have predicted the Hati quake if the 1907 Kingston quake was in my database. I don't believe it was loaded, and may not be part of the NGDC data. I need to check. But here is what I think is going on in on Haiti, or what I call the "Caribbean quakes." When I first started researching the eclipse earthquake theory I figured we would be able to produce a quake when the maximum tidal forces were at play. This would happen at lunar perigee when the moon was in its closest orbit to earth, and at perihelion when the earth was in its closest orbit to the sun. Toss in a solar eclipse and you have the maximum of the maximum gravitational pull on the earth.
I found the such an eclipse on January 14th 1907. I also found a quake.
January 14th 1907 was a total Eclipse. Lunar Perigee was on Jan 13th 1907. January is Perihelion. eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEplot/SEplot1901/SE1907Jan14T.GIF
After looking at this for awhile I realized the exact location of the eclipse is not important. The entire earth spins under this gravitational pull the whole day, the moon moves a very few degrees in its orbit.
So we got an earthquake on the same day of the eclipse. The 1907 Kingston earthquake which shook the capital of the island of Jamaica with a magnitude of 6.5 on the moment magnitude scale on Monday January 14th, at about 3:30 PM local time (21:36 UTC), was considered by many writers of that time one of the world's deadliest earthquakes recorded in history. Every building in Kingston was damaged by the earthquake and subsequent fires, which lasted for three hours before any efforts were made to check them, culminated in the death of 800 to 1,000 people, and left approximately 10,000 homeless and $25,000,000 in material damage. Shortly after, a tsunami was reported on the north coast of Jamaica, with a maximum wave height of about 2 m (6-8 ft).
Wikipedia on the Jan 14 1907 quake that burned Kingston to the ground
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1907_Kingston_earthquake
Magnetic Disturbance
www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/1907/TE012i002p00080-01.shtml
Perigee Calculator
www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc.html
Perihelion and Perigee with eclipse
Jan 13 2:17 359140 km N-1d 3h
Its not just a coincidence. We dont get an earthquake with each eclipse, we just get them with some of the eclipses.
So what was the saros? I'll let everyone do the research on their own. Compare the saros of the 2010 Hati Quake to the 1907 Kingston quake. Who wants to bet we have a match?
ECLIPSE_DATE TYPE OBS SAROS ---------------------------------------- 1907-01-14 SOLAR Total 120 2010-06-26 LUNAR Partial 120
Now the moon was not in the exact same position. I'm thinking its the PATH the moon travels in it orbit, that loosens the plates. It pulls in a certain direction with each saros, its the geometry of the movement, and the physics over time that causes the quakes.
What we have is a correlation between the moons orbit, magnetic disturbances and quakes. I think the theory holds water.
#425
I live in Hawaii.
I'm wondering what your research says about Tsunami waves reaching Hawaii from the upcoming Alaska and California quakes? or any we may have to contend with in the next couple of years?
Those seismic charts on the previous page are unreal- they showed low activity yesterday and are going crazy now. Please tell us how to read them? (Both axis seem to indicate time..?)
Janna
03/24/2011 (6:26 pm)
I stumbled on your blog yesterday and am blown away by what you've figured out here. I've done what I could to get you noticed- I contacted CNN by email a few minutes ago- with a link to your blog and some info about what your findings are.I thank you for taking the time to do the research you've done. Your system works. I live in Hawaii.
I'm wondering what your research says about Tsunami waves reaching Hawaii from the upcoming Alaska and California quakes? or any we may have to contend with in the next couple of years?
Those seismic charts on the previous page are unreal- they showed low activity yesterday and are going crazy now. Please tell us how to read them? (Both axis seem to indicate time..?)
Janna
#426
Yeah I looked back at the graphs on page 21 and they are going crazy. Get ready... here we go. Can I predict em or what? You are correct. The axis is time on both the x and y axis. The amplitude is the y axis. Time is the x axis. Each hour over laps and goes to the next line. So each line is an hour. Its really 24 graphs in one.
1PM ....... 1:10 PM ...... 1:20 PM....
2PM ....... 1:10 PM ...... 1:20 PM....
3PM Etc...
When it goes all willy nilly you have to eyeball where you think it started.
I did not design the system. I have no idea about tsunamis and Hawaii. I think the best thing to do is see what happened in the past by googling Hawaiian tsunamis. As far as getting noticed in the news, any help is appreciated.
I figure if I get some more big ones predicted, and I accurately predicted them all... then someone will start to listen. I'm putting together the 3d model of the lunar orbits, once that is done I'll start making you tube videos. Sooner or later, if I'm right then I can't be ignored.
None the less I've lost sleep over the Japan quake. I feel guilty for not doing more and somewhat responsible for the death toll. If I had created a bit of a panic, perhaps some of the people who perished would have survived. At this point I'm pretty sure most of the predictions are correct and help spreading the word is help saving lives.
I really think we are in a rough ride after this summer. We are going to see serious quakes. I think my accuracy will get far greater, and my predictions will be more accurate because the effects of the triple eclipse will be compounded.
So yeah anyone reading the blog, if you think its news worthy then spread the word!
03/25/2011 (12:52 am)
Janna, Yeah I looked back at the graphs on page 21 and they are going crazy. Get ready... here we go. Can I predict em or what? You are correct. The axis is time on both the x and y axis. The amplitude is the y axis. Time is the x axis. Each hour over laps and goes to the next line. So each line is an hour. Its really 24 graphs in one.
1PM ....... 1:10 PM ...... 1:20 PM....
2PM ....... 1:10 PM ...... 1:20 PM....
3PM Etc...
When it goes all willy nilly you have to eyeball where you think it started.
I did not design the system. I have no idea about tsunamis and Hawaii. I think the best thing to do is see what happened in the past by googling Hawaiian tsunamis. As far as getting noticed in the news, any help is appreciated.
I figure if I get some more big ones predicted, and I accurately predicted them all... then someone will start to listen. I'm putting together the 3d model of the lunar orbits, once that is done I'll start making you tube videos. Sooner or later, if I'm right then I can't be ignored.
None the less I've lost sleep over the Japan quake. I feel guilty for not doing more and somewhat responsible for the death toll. If I had created a bit of a panic, perhaps some of the people who perished would have survived. At this point I'm pretty sure most of the predictions are correct and help spreading the word is help saving lives.
I really think we are in a rough ride after this summer. We are going to see serious quakes. I think my accuracy will get far greater, and my predictions will be more accurate because the effects of the triple eclipse will be compounded.
So yeah anyone reading the blog, if you think its news worthy then spread the word!
#427
Got a quake but not a significant one.
Magnitude 4.1
Date-Time
* Thursday, March 24, 2011 at 02:04:42 UTC
Location 27.761N, 111.782W
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region GULF OF CALIFORNIA
Distances 72 km (44 miles) NE of Santa Rosalia, Baja Calif. Sur, Mexico
Prior to that we did have a quake on the 18th.
Actual Quake reported by the USGS.
Magnitude 4.5
Date-Time
* Friday, March 18, 2011 at 01:44:12 UTC
Location 25.416N, 109.711W
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region GULF OF CALIFORNIA
Again, its a bit much to be pure coincidence.
03/26/2011 (9:26 am)
PREDICTED ORIGIN SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-24 1988-06-18 118 7.0 26.86 -111.0 MEXICO, GULF OF CALIFORNIA
Got a quake but not a significant one.
Magnitude 4.1
Date-Time
* Thursday, March 24, 2011 at 02:04:42 UTC
Location 27.761N, 111.782W
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region GULF OF CALIFORNIA
Distances 72 km (44 miles) NE of Santa Rosalia, Baja Calif. Sur, Mexico
Prior to that we did have a quake on the 18th.
Actual Quake reported by the USGS.
Magnitude 4.5
Date-Time
* Friday, March 18, 2011 at 01:44:12 UTC
Location 25.416N, 109.711W
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region GULF OF CALIFORNIA
Again, its a bit much to be pure coincidence.
#428
weird aspects:
It shows it lasted a full 26 minutes in Hawaii. Similar length world wide. Seems a lot longer then it should be.
I attached pictures of two of the readings. Arizona and KEV?
There's a distinct pattern to the quake that shows up only on these two
readings. Whats your opinion on this? To me it looks like a man made event. Is this possible? Was there a big quake at this time yesterday?
Thanks, Janna
I tried to make the charts show up smaller-and failed. sorry.
(please- If my questions are out of line or ignorant, feel free to delete my post)
03/26/2011 (5:19 pm)
I studied up on everything and thought I had it figured out until I saw the second one yesterday. There was a normal looking quake around 11:00 then what appears to be a massive one that showed up first in Hawaii at 19:32 and at 12:24 in Japan. All the other locations show it hitting between these 2 times.I don't know what size it really was or where it originated- but it did show up on all but a few locations across the world. weird aspects:
It shows it lasted a full 26 minutes in Hawaii. Similar length world wide. Seems a lot longer then it should be.
I attached pictures of two of the readings. Arizona and KEV?
There's a distinct pattern to the quake that shows up only on these two
readings. Whats your opinion on this? To me it looks like a man made event. Is this possible? Was there a big quake at this time yesterday?
Thanks, Janna
I tried to make the charts show up smaller-and failed. sorry.
(please- If my questions are out of line or ignorant, feel free to delete my post)
#430
Current science says its impossible to predict earthquakes. They have given up. In fact its part of the job description that you may not even try to predict earthquakes at the USGS. That means its up to us. I mean if they wont even try to look into ways to predict an earthquake because they believe its impossible, then they never will.
So I wont delete any post (even if I could) I opened this blog for the very purpose of open discussion about predicting earthquakes. Anything goes.
The big vertical lines are most likely an earthquake. You can see the recent quakes here.
earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/
You can zoom in by clicking an area of the world. You can click on a square and see the details of the earthquake.
The graphs that you see are far more sensitive, they will record shaking that does not qualify as an earthquake. I just look at them to see if we have any rumbling starting in the region. According to my theory there is no such thing as an "aftershock" we have a series of earthquakes small and large that are "clustered" together as the plates move.
The best indicator of a large earthquake is a series of small ones. And yeah, Hawaii has had a few recently. I don't recall seeing a prediction in my queries for Hawaii though. I'll run a query for magnitude 5 and above for Hawaii over the next few days and post the results.
03/26/2011 (8:45 pm)
@Janna,Current science says its impossible to predict earthquakes. They have given up. In fact its part of the job description that you may not even try to predict earthquakes at the USGS. That means its up to us. I mean if they wont even try to look into ways to predict an earthquake because they believe its impossible, then they never will.
So I wont delete any post (even if I could) I opened this blog for the very purpose of open discussion about predicting earthquakes. Anything goes.
The big vertical lines are most likely an earthquake. You can see the recent quakes here.
earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/
You can zoom in by clicking an area of the world. You can click on a square and see the details of the earthquake.
The graphs that you see are far more sensitive, they will record shaking that does not qualify as an earthquake. I just look at them to see if we have any rumbling starting in the region. According to my theory there is no such thing as an "aftershock" we have a series of earthquakes small and large that are "clustered" together as the plates move.
The best indicator of a large earthquake is a series of small ones. And yeah, Hawaii has had a few recently. I don't recall seeing a prediction in my queries for Hawaii though. I'll run a query for magnitude 5 and above for Hawaii over the next few days and post the results.
#431
03/27/2011 (7:27 pm)
Repeating Feb 10th Predictions With Saros data (added in 125 from last December year), and some May predictions:PREDICTED ORIGIN SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-05 1916-04-18 118 7.5 53.3 -170 ALASKA: ALEUTIAN ISLANDS: FOX ISLANDS 2011-03-06 1997-11-15 125 7.0 -15.1 167.38 U:2:U: VANUATU ISLANDS: ESPIRITU SANTO; LUGANILLE 2011-03-08 1916-04-21 118 7.8 33 141 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU 2011-03-09 1939-01-25 118 8.3 -36.2 -72.2 CHILE: CHILLAN 2011-03-10 1939-01-25 125 8.3 -36.2 -72.2 CHILE: CHILLAN 2011-03-10 1939-01-25 151 8.3 -36.2 -72.2 CHILE: CHILLAN 2011-03-11 1916-04-24 118 7.2 18.5 -68 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: SANTO DOMINIGO 2011-03-12 1609-10-20 118 8.6 -11.9 -77.4 PERU 2011-03-13 1916-04-26 118 7.3 9.33 -82.55 PANAMA: BOCAS DEL TORO 2011-03-14 1939-01-30 118 7.8 -6.5 155.5 PAPUA NEW GUINEA: BOUGAINVILLE ISLAND 2011-03-14 1943-10-23 125 7.2 21.5 93.5 MYANMAR (BURMA) 2011-03-15 1939-01-30 125 7.8 -6.5 155.5 PAPUA NEW GUINEA: BOUGAINVILLE ISLAND 2011-03-15 1939-01-30 151 7.8 -6.5 155.5 PAPUA NEW GUINEA: BOUGAINVILLE ISLAND 2011-03-16 1970-05-31 118 7.9 -9.2 -78.8 PERU 2011-03-16 1997-11-25 125 7.0 1.24 122.54 U:INDONESIA: MINAHASSA PENINSULA: BOLAANG-GORONTALO 2011-03-16 1997-11-25 125 7.0 1.241 122.53 INDONESIA: SULAWESI: MINAHASSA PENINSULA;GORONTALO 2011-03-17 1925-10-13 125 7.5 11 -42 NORTH ATLANTIC RIDGE 2011-03-17 1993-03-06 118 7.1 -10.9 164.18 2011-03-17 1993-03-06 130 7.1 -10.9 164.18 2011-03-17 1993-03-06 151 7.1 -10.9 164.18 2011-03-18 1979-11-16 125 7.0 -16.7 -179.9 U:FIJI ISLANDS 2011-03-18 1993-03-06 125 7.1 -10.9 164.18 2011-03-24 1988-06-18 118 7.0 26.86 -111.0 2011-03-24 1997-12-05 130 7.8 54.84 162.03 RUSSIA: KAMCHATKA: UST-KAMCHATSK; PETROPAVLOVSK 2011-03-27 1943-11-06 130 7.6 -6 134.3 INDONESIA: NEW GUINEA: IRIAN JAYA: ARU ISLANDS 2011-03-27 1970-06-11 118 7.6 -59.1 157.8 AUSTRALIA: MACQUARIE ISLAND 2011-03-27 1979-11-27 130 7.1 33.96 59.726 IRAN 2011-03-27 1979-11-27 130 7.5 33.96 59.73 U:IRAN 2011-03-30 1921-02-04 118 7.5 15 -91 MEXICO-GUATEMALA 2011-03-30 1921-02-04 130 7.5 15 -91 MEXICO-GUATEMALA 2011-03-31 1921-02-04 151 7.5 15 -91 MEXICO-GUATEMALA 2011-04-10 1957-03-08 118 7.0 39.4 22.8 GREECE: STEPHANOVIKION-VELESTNON (MAGNESIA) 2011-04-10 1979-12-12 130 7.7 1.598 -79.35 COLOMBIA: OFF SHORE; PACIFIC OCEAN 2011-04-10 1997-12-22 130 7.2 -5.49 147.87 2011-04-10 2006-07-17 118 7.7 -9.25 107.41 JAVA; INDONESIA 2011-04-11 1957-03-08 130 7.0 39.4 22.8 GREECE: STEPHANOVIKION-VELESTNON (MAGNESIA) 2011-04-11 1957-03-09 118 8.6 51.29 -175.6 ALASKA 2011-04-12 1957-03-09 130 8.6 51.29 -175.6 ALASKA 2011-04-15 1925-11-13 130 7.3 13 125 PHILIPPINES: SAMAR: LAOANG; BATAG I 2011-04-17 1925-11-16 130 7.0 18.5 -107 S. MEXICO 2011-04-17 1943-11-26 130 7.6 41 33.7 TURKEY: LADIK 2011-04-19 1943-11-28 130 7.6 54.9 156.8 RUSSIA: KAMCHATKA 2011-04-21 1812-12-21 118 7.1 34.2 -119.9 CALIFORNIA: PURISIMA 2011-04-21 1812-12-21 130 7.1 34.2 -119.9 CALIFORNIA: PURISIMA 2011-04-23 1998-01-04 130 7.5 -22.3 170.91 U:2:NEW CALEDONIA: LOYALTY ISLANDS 2011-04-24 1957-03-22 118 7.5 55 -165.2 ALASKA: ALEUTIAN ISLANDS: FOX ISLANDS 2011-04-25 1957-03-22 130 7.5 55 -165.2 ALASKA: ALEUTIAN ISLANDS: FOX ISLANDS 2011-05-01 1980-01-01 130 7.2 38.81 -27.78 U:AZORES: GRACIOSA; TERCEIRA 2011-05-09 1916-06-21 118 7.5 -28.5 -63 ARGENTINA 2011-05-11 1988-08-06 118 7.2 25.14 95.127 MYANMAR (BURMA); INDIA: GAUHATI; SIBSAGAR; IMPHAL 7.2 -11.7 166.5 SOLOMON ISLANDS: SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
#432
The 2nd of the following 3 Alaska earthquakes match up with one you predicted, but what about the other two? Or are these additional occurrences over the years of the same event? The 3rd looks more like a match to #30 above.
What does it mean when you have a minus before a long or lat number?
1946 Aleutian:
April 1, 1946, at 12:29 GMT. Its epicenter was at 52.8° N, 163.5° W, focal depth 25 km. magnitude of 7.2, (Mw) of 8.6.
1957 Aleutian:
March 9, 1957, at 14:22 GMT.epicenter: 51.5 North, 175.7 West. focal depth: less than 33 km. magnitude of 8.3
1964 Alaskan:
March 27, 1964, at 5:36 p.m. ADT (03:36 3/28 UTC) epicenter: Lat. 61.04N, Lon. 147.73W, depth: 25 km. magnitude 8.4 to 8.6. (9.2 moment magnitude)
Thanks,
Janna
03/27/2011 (10:01 pm)
Britton,The 2nd of the following 3 Alaska earthquakes match up with one you predicted, but what about the other two? Or are these additional occurrences over the years of the same event? The 3rd looks more like a match to #30 above.
What does it mean when you have a minus before a long or lat number?
1946 Aleutian:
April 1, 1946, at 12:29 GMT. Its epicenter was at 52.8° N, 163.5° W, focal depth 25 km. magnitude of 7.2, (Mw) of 8.6.
1957 Aleutian:
March 9, 1957, at 14:22 GMT.epicenter: 51.5 North, 175.7 West. focal depth: less than 33 km. magnitude of 8.3
1964 Alaskan:
March 27, 1964, at 5:36 p.m. ADT (03:36 3/28 UTC) epicenter: Lat. 61.04N, Lon. 147.73W, depth: 25 km. magnitude 8.4 to 8.6. (9.2 moment magnitude)
Thanks,
Janna
#433
Good Questions. The negative number means south for latitude and west for longitude. The missing link, which I should have posted is the saros. So the year of the quake is not as important as the position of the moon in its orbit about the earth. The lunar saros is the key to why the pattern is not obvious. This is why not every eclipse will produce an earthquake. I am going under the assumption that the lunar orbit is the same before during and after the saros. This allows me to pin point earthquakes that occur between eclipses.
Th easiest way to show what a saros is, is to show you with the following images from nasa. Here is the Solar eclipse from 1993, and the Solar eclipse we will see this summer in 2011. My theory is that it is this lunar geometry, the that makes gravitational physics the same as it was in 1993. The saros is what gives us the right lunar gravitational conditions for the same quake (location and magnitude) every 18 years 11 and 1/3rd days.
A different saros will produce a different quake in a different location. Or perhaps a different saros will not produce a quake at all. So when the scientist skim the surface they say "see we just had an eclipse, and no major quake." Then they dismiss the theory, and as a consequence cannot predict an earthquake that costs thousands of human lives.
2011 Eclipse 118 Saros
1993 Eclipse 118 Saros
We don't get the same quake every 18 years. But the lunar gravitational conditions are the same, and this variable can be accounted for. We just need to uncover the other variables that make a quake occur. Another such variable is accumulated tectonic stress. About 3cm per year for the North American plate for example, and when the last major quake occurred.
I'll attach a full spreadsheet with all possible predictions with this method for this year here in a sec.
03/28/2011 (11:50 am)
Janna,Good Questions. The negative number means south for latitude and west for longitude. The missing link, which I should have posted is the saros. So the year of the quake is not as important as the position of the moon in its orbit about the earth. The lunar saros is the key to why the pattern is not obvious. This is why not every eclipse will produce an earthquake. I am going under the assumption that the lunar orbit is the same before during and after the saros. This allows me to pin point earthquakes that occur between eclipses.
Th easiest way to show what a saros is, is to show you with the following images from nasa. Here is the Solar eclipse from 1993, and the Solar eclipse we will see this summer in 2011. My theory is that it is this lunar geometry, the that makes gravitational physics the same as it was in 1993. The saros is what gives us the right lunar gravitational conditions for the same quake (location and magnitude) every 18 years 11 and 1/3rd days.
A different saros will produce a different quake in a different location. Or perhaps a different saros will not produce a quake at all. So when the scientist skim the surface they say "see we just had an eclipse, and no major quake." Then they dismiss the theory, and as a consequence cannot predict an earthquake that costs thousands of human lives.
2011 Eclipse 118 Saros
1993 Eclipse 118 Saros
We don't get the same quake every 18 years. But the lunar gravitational conditions are the same, and this variable can be accounted for. We just need to uncover the other variables that make a quake occur. Another such variable is accumulated tectonic stress. About 3cm per year for the North American plate for example, and when the last major quake occurred.
I'll attach a full spreadsheet with all possible predictions with this method for this year here in a sec.
#434
I've never predicted a Hawaiian quake. I've never studied the region, so I have no idea what to make of the following predictions. Here is what the database query came back with.
Two of them are past predictions. We did have matches for the past predicted quakes but they were not significant.
03/28/2011 (6:35 pm)
Jana,I've never predicted a Hawaiian quake. I've never studied the region, so I have no idea what to make of the following predictions. Here is what the database query came back with.
PREDICTED_DATE ORIGIN SAROS MAG LAT LONGITUDE REGION ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2010-03-01 1974-02-06 141 3.5 19.67 -156.0 HAWAII 2010-06-16 1951-08-21 146 6.9 19.7 -156 HAWAII 2011-07-10 2006-10-15 118 6.7 19.87 -155.9 HAWAIIAN ISLANDS 2011-12-22 1975-11-29 123 7.1 19.33 -155.0 HAWAII 2011-12-22 1975-11-29 135 7.1 19.33 -155.0 HAWAII
Two of them are past predictions. We did have matches for the past predicted quakes but they were not significant.
CAT YEAR MO DA ORIG TIME LAT LONG DEP MAGNITUDE ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- PDE-W 2010 03 09 042957 19.85 -155.36 31 4.4 MDHVO PDE-W 2010 06 29 185525.25 19.32 -155.22 35 3.6 MLHVO
#435
03/28/2011 (7:09 pm)
I noticed that too. Have you ever made predictions on the the Cascadia Subduction Zone? Or is that plate moving too slow to discern any information from...
#436
California rarely has really big quakes. I did predict a 6.5 accurately last year off the coast. I nailed it on page 13. We had some rather interesting whale beachings along with the quake database predictions.
www.garagegames.com/community/blog/view/15946/13
The california and Australia quakes I just predicted have not really happened yet.
Short answer, the odds of correctly predicting a significant quake in California are pretty low.
03/28/2011 (7:15 pm)
@nhq,California rarely has really big quakes. I did predict a 6.5 accurately last year off the coast. I nailed it on page 13. We had some rather interesting whale beachings along with the quake database predictions.
www.garagegames.com/community/blog/view/15946/13
The california and Australia quakes I just predicted have not really happened yet.
PREDICTED ORIGIN SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-24 1988-06-18 118 7.0 26.86 -111.0 MEXICO, GULF OF CALIFORNIA 2011-03-27 1970-06-11 118 7.6 -59.1 157.8 AUSTRALIA: MACQUARIE ISLAND
Short answer, the odds of correctly predicting a significant quake in California are pretty low.
#437
Hope you don't mind!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Haiti_earthquake#cite_note-36
03/28/2011 (9:47 pm)
Hey Britton, I really enjoy your site...thought your posting on the Haiti Earthquake was especially interesting so I added your information into the Geophysics portion of the Haiti earthquake page on wikipedia.Hope you don't mind!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Haiti_earthquake#cite_note-36
#438
I don't mind at all. At some point I'll have a you tube video on this stuff, the whole point is to spread the idea that predicting quakes is very possible. Any help spreading the word is appreciated.
03/28/2011 (10:12 pm)
nhg,I don't mind at all. At some point I'll have a you tube video on this stuff, the whole point is to spread the idea that predicting quakes is very possible. Any help spreading the word is appreciated.
#439
03/28/2011 (11:08 pm)
Hi Britton, I have some information from email saying that there will be an straight coincide with Saturn and Earth on 4th April 2011, 10:35am (I don't know what world time is it :D) , and there will be an earthquake in Europe Region, that will cause huge Tsunami. What is your prediction for that time? If any. Thanks.
#440
You have some very intriguing theories. Thanks to your ideas, I did some research and came up with the nine biggest earthquakes on record. Then, at the NASA site, I compared the saros numbers on all the lunar and solar eclipses which occurred in the years of those Great Quakes.
I see some “repeat performances.” Could this kind of data be predictive?
Solar Saros Lunar Saros
Partial Match:
9.5 Mag Chile (1960) 139 122
144 127
9.0 Mag Russia (1952) 139 113
144 118
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Exact Match:
9.1 Mag Indonesia (2004) 119 131
124 136
9.0 Mag Peru/Chile (1968) 119 131
124 136
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Since we live in the PNW, I researched the data from the major quakes here and in California. I see a similar pattern of saros cycles developing for 2011 and 2012.
9.0 Mag Casacadia (1700) 106 118
111 123
149
5.7-6.0 Mag Oregon (1993) 118 130
123 135
Same Mag EQ possible? (2011) 151
118 130
156
123 135
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
6.9 Mag Northridge, CA (1994) 128 140
133 145
Same Mag EQ possible? (2012) 128 140
133 145
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
In my data, I see other “repeaters” from the world’s Great Quakes coming up in the solar and lunar saros cycles in next seven years. What does it mean, if anything?
I’d appreciate your thoughts.
Marilyn
03/28/2011 (11:48 pm)
Hi Britton,You have some very intriguing theories. Thanks to your ideas, I did some research and came up with the nine biggest earthquakes on record. Then, at the NASA site, I compared the saros numbers on all the lunar and solar eclipses which occurred in the years of those Great Quakes.
I see some “repeat performances.” Could this kind of data be predictive?
Solar Saros Lunar Saros
Partial Match:
9.5 Mag Chile (1960) 139 122
144 127
9.0 Mag Russia (1952) 139 113
144 118
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Exact Match:
9.1 Mag Indonesia (2004) 119 131
124 136
9.0 Mag Peru/Chile (1968) 119 131
124 136
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Since we live in the PNW, I researched the data from the major quakes here and in California. I see a similar pattern of saros cycles developing for 2011 and 2012.
9.0 Mag Casacadia (1700) 106 118
111 123
149
5.7-6.0 Mag Oregon (1993) 118 130
123 135
Same Mag EQ possible? (2011) 151
118 130
156
123 135
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
6.9 Mag Northridge, CA (1994) 128 140
133 145
Same Mag EQ possible? (2012) 128 140
133 145
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
In my data, I see other “repeaters” from the world’s Great Quakes coming up in the solar and lunar saros cycles in next seven years. What does it mean, if anything?
I’d appreciate your thoughts.
Marilyn
Peter Lee
The Myanmar earthquake is magnitude 6.8.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenews/2011/usc0002aes/
All the graphs above are lightning up including this:
aslwww.cr.usgs.gov/Seismic_Data/heli2.shtml
Your prediction for 24 March 2011 is accurate.