Japan Tokai Quake Predicted for late 2016 early 2017
by Britton LaRoche · 01/08/2009 (2:12 pm) · 1262 comments
Update Jan 2013: Quake Database Built and Tested! Results are Here:
Note: Our method for predicting earthquakes has failed for a Southern California earthquake in the Spring 2011 and for the Tokai earthquake in Japan, and for Istanbul in 2012. This method of predicting earthquakes is still just a theory at this point.
In spite of the setbacks over the past year, we have predicted several significant earthquakes (documented in this blog) using a lunar tidal model. An entire community of people have contributed in this blog. Together we watched earthquake patterns as we made predictions. The authors here have contributed by presenting new ideas and linked research. Together we have refined the model over time. We believe the next window for the Japan Tokai quake is now in late 2016 or early 2017.
The Tokai earthquake article quoted below is linked here: geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm
"The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 30 years.... The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2012, it has been 158 years and counting."
Utilizing the theory tha certain lunar and solar eclipse cycles create higher than normal tidal pressure in Japan, we were able to use this model to correctly account for and predict almost all of the past tokai quakes in Japan. See page 43 for the details. www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/43
Current Japan Tokai Predictions based on the Lunar Saros Eclipse Cycle 114 and the resulting tidal pressures.
In the past we were not able to pinpoint the exact location. Using the stress transfer algorithm developed by scientist Jeffrey King and his team we now believe we have a method of predicting both the time and the location. Watch the video here for an explanation.
The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
Actual
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original 2009 Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
Once the donations hit 1 million USD I will quit my full time job and dedicate myself to quake prediction. All I need is a dollar from one million people or a million dollars from one very generous billionaire. Maybe Bill Gates would be interested. ;)
View Stats
Note: Our method for predicting earthquakes has failed for a Southern California earthquake in the Spring 2011 and for the Tokai earthquake in Japan, and for Istanbul in 2012. This method of predicting earthquakes is still just a theory at this point.
In spite of the setbacks over the past year, we have predicted several significant earthquakes (documented in this blog) using a lunar tidal model. An entire community of people have contributed in this blog. Together we watched earthquake patterns as we made predictions. The authors here have contributed by presenting new ideas and linked research. Together we have refined the model over time. We believe the next window for the Japan Tokai quake is now in late 2016 or early 2017.
The Tokai earthquake article quoted below is linked here: geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm
"The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 30 years.... The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2012, it has been 158 years and counting."
Utilizing the theory tha certain lunar and solar eclipse cycles create higher than normal tidal pressure in Japan, we were able to use this model to correctly account for and predict almost all of the past tokai quakes in Japan. See page 43 for the details. www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/43
Current Japan Tokai Predictions based on the Lunar Saros Eclipse Cycle 114 and the resulting tidal pressures.
PREDICTED QUAKE_DATE ECLIPSE_DATE DAYS SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2016-11-19 1498-09-20 1498-12-13 -84 114 8.6 34 138.1 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA 2016-11-19 1498-09-20 1498-12-13 -84 114 7.5 33.5 135.2 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 2017-04-01 1854-12-24 1854-11-20 34 140 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN 2017-04-02 1854-12-24 1854-11-04 50 114 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN
In the past we were not able to pinpoint the exact location. Using the stress transfer algorithm developed by scientist Jeffrey King and his team we now believe we have a method of predicting both the time and the location. Watch the video here for an explanation.
The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
PREDICTED ORIGIN SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-08 1916-04-21 118 7.8 33 141 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
Actual
DATE SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-11 118 9.0 38.30 142.37 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original 2009 Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Magnitude 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
Quote:
Tidal forces may have contributed to triggering the devastating magnitude 9.0 Sumatra earthquake of 2004 and other large earthquakes in the region. Gravitational pull from the Sun and the Moon not only is responsible for ocean tides but also creates Earth tides, slight motions of the solid Earth (bulges and dips in the earth's crust and upper mantle) that can lead to stress buildup (or stress relief) along faults.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Quote:
doi:10.1029/2009GL041581
The frequency distribution of tidal phase angles in the pre-event period exhibited a peak near the angle where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault slip. This implies that the high correlation observed in the pre-seismic stage is not a stochastic chance but is likely a physical consequence of the tidal stress change.
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
Once the donations hit 1 million USD I will quit my full time job and dedicate myself to quake prediction. All I need is a dollar from one million people or a million dollars from one very generous billionaire. Maybe Bill Gates would be interested. ;)
#883
This is from page 34. www.garagegames.com/community/blog/view/15946/34 Where I expect the quakes to be. Biggest one on lower left. I expect preslip quakes to start now... if we get them....
Also watching these URLS:
www.ips.gov.au/Geophysical/2/2
www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/6/9
www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/nwpac/flash-wv.html
www.e-pisco.jp/r_ion/data/nagano_matsumoto.html
Does not look like much activity on the ion reading side.
07/09/2012 (9:41 pm)
This is from page 34. www.garagegames.com/community/blog/view/15946/34 Where I expect the quakes to be. Biggest one on lower left. I expect preslip quakes to start now... if we get them....
Also watching these URLS:
www.ips.gov.au/Geophysical/2/2
www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/6/9
www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/nwpac/flash-wv.html
www.e-pisco.jp/r_ion/data/nagano_matsumoto.html
Does not look like much activity on the ion reading side.
#884
07/09/2012 (10:11 pm)
I wonder if there is any possibility that, like the M7 prior to the M9 last year, a ~M7 could happen at the same place of the 4 recent quakes in the coming days
#885
About 4-8 weeks back, Tokyo had I guess 6-7 shocks between 4.6 - 5.4, within 50-60km of Tokyo.
I think that was more significant than high 3.x - 4.5, but nothing has eventuated yet.
07/10/2012 (4:43 am)
Those Mag 4.x are small and northern Nagano/Niigata are not very close to Tokyo (around 200km)About 4-8 weeks back, Tokyo had I guess 6-7 shocks between 4.6 - 5.4, within 50-60km of Tokyo.
I think that was more significant than high 3.x - 4.5, but nothing has eventuated yet.
#886
The next perigee full moon cycle will be around August 2nd. On July 29th we have perigee and on August 2nd we have the full moon. We will see.
07/10/2012 (7:16 am)
That one near Narashino shows me the fault line is moving. Small but in the right spot. Japan survived what I thought would bring the maximum tidal forces to them. It has been a week since the full moon syzgy. If something happens now it will happen during the neap tide with very little fluctuation. I'd expect something to happen around July 19th with the new moon Syzygy.The next perigee full moon cycle will be around August 2nd. On July 29th we have perigee and on August 2nd we have the full moon. We will see.
#887
07/10/2012 (7:55 am)
Talking about perigee and Syzygy, how have those correlated with the previous Tokai quakes ? You showed that there was a 2-3 month range within the prediction.
#888
(1) The last Tokai quake was on December 24th 1854.
Perigee: Dec 21 3:11 359,338 km
New Moon: 1854 Dec 19 21:47
So it occurred 5 days after new moon, 3 days after perigee. Significant tides, but not the max. I think its a cumulative effect. The eclipse set things in motion. The perigee amplified the effects of the full moon and after five days of high tides it popped. I'll have to look at the rest.
(2) Tokai quake 1498-09-20, magnitude 8.6
New Moon: Sept 15
Perigee: Sept 16 358,254 km
Also five days after new moon syzygy, 4 days after perigee.
(3) Tokai quake 1099-02-22, Magnitude 8.4
New moon: 1099 Feb 23 1:11
Apogee: Feb 21 20:01 406,618 k
1 Day before new moon. 1 day after apogee, moon as far out as possible. (looks like perigee is not that important)
(4) Tokai quake 0684-09-15, magnitude 8.4
New Moon: Sep 14 23:57
Perigee: Sep 16 0:26 358,794 km
2 days after new moon 1 day before perigee.
Hmmm... looks like they are all associated with a new moon, not the full moon. New moon means the moon was on the same side as the sun when they were aligned. Syzygy is the term when the earth moon and sun are in a straight line as seen below.
The syzygy causes the highest tides known as spring tides, seen in the diagram below:
Hmmm... based on this information it looks like July 19th may be a good candidate for the next Tokai quake. Who knows? I'm just following a database query and a hunch.
07/10/2012 (12:37 pm)
@Dennis, Good question as usual. I use the following link for Syzygy and perigee calculations. www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc.html(1) The last Tokai quake was on December 24th 1854.
Perigee: Dec 21 3:11 359,338 km
New Moon: 1854 Dec 19 21:47
So it occurred 5 days after new moon, 3 days after perigee. Significant tides, but not the max. I think its a cumulative effect. The eclipse set things in motion. The perigee amplified the effects of the full moon and after five days of high tides it popped. I'll have to look at the rest.
(2) Tokai quake 1498-09-20, magnitude 8.6
New Moon: Sept 15
Perigee: Sept 16 358,254 km
Also five days after new moon syzygy, 4 days after perigee.
(3) Tokai quake 1099-02-22, Magnitude 8.4
New moon: 1099 Feb 23 1:11
Apogee: Feb 21 20:01 406,618 k
1 Day before new moon. 1 day after apogee, moon as far out as possible. (looks like perigee is not that important)
(4) Tokai quake 0684-09-15, magnitude 8.4
New Moon: Sep 14 23:57
Perigee: Sep 16 0:26 358,794 km
2 days after new moon 1 day before perigee.
Hmmm... looks like they are all associated with a new moon, not the full moon. New moon means the moon was on the same side as the sun when they were aligned. Syzygy is the term when the earth moon and sun are in a straight line as seen below.
The syzygy causes the highest tides known as spring tides, seen in the diagram below:
Hmmm... based on this information it looks like July 19th may be a good candidate for the next Tokai quake. Who knows? I'm just following a database query and a hunch.
#889
your source seems to differ a bit from that:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nankai_megathrust_earthquakes
Does anyone knows which is correct?
after wiki:
887-8-22 16:00
Perigee Aug 23
New moon Aug 22
1096-12-11 08:00
Apogee Dec 14
New moon Dec 17
1361-7-26
Perigee Jul 23
New moon Aug 1
Full moon Jul 18
1498-9-11 08:00
Perigee Sep 16
New moon Sep 15
1605-2-3 20:00
Perigees Feb 8
Full moon Feb 3
1707-10-28 14:00
Apogee Oct 29
New moon Oct 25
1944-12-7 13:35
Apogee Dec 8
New moon Dec 15
1946-12-24 04:19
Apogee Dec 22
New Moon Dec 23
Here there are less similarities unfortunately
07/10/2012 (6:50 pm)
Briton, thank you for checking this. Seems that New moon and apogee/perigee have always been very close for the previous quakes. I have added a list below with the previous quake after wiki.your source seems to differ a bit from that:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nankai_megathrust_earthquakes
Does anyone knows which is correct?
after wiki:
887-8-22 16:00
Perigee Aug 23
New moon Aug 22
1096-12-11 08:00
Apogee Dec 14
New moon Dec 17
1361-7-26
Perigee Jul 23
New moon Aug 1
Full moon Jul 18
1498-9-11 08:00
Perigee Sep 16
New moon Sep 15
1605-2-3 20:00
Perigees Feb 8
Full moon Feb 3
1707-10-28 14:00
Apogee Oct 29
New moon Oct 25
1944-12-7 13:35
Apogee Dec 8
New moon Dec 15
1946-12-24 04:19
Apogee Dec 22
New Moon Dec 23
Here there are less similarities unfortunately
#890
I'd like to say from the data it goes from 2 days before new or full moon syzygy to 5 days after. That keeps us at 50% of the time. If 100% of the quakes fall in 50% of the possible time then we are on to something.
This one does not fit.
1944-12-7 13:35
Apogee Dec 8
New moon Dec 15
Full moon was November 30th. This guy is right in the middle, that is the weakest tide possible. Its a neap tide quake. Pretty sure the 1498 quake is on September 20th.
My source is the NOAA NGDC. NGDC Japan Query Link
07/10/2012 (8:03 pm)
@Dennis, there is one problem. Its only about 14 days from new moon to full moon. So we have to define limits. If we go to 7 dyas before or after a new or full moon syzygy then we cover 100% of the time. So naturally all quakes are withing 7 days of new or full moon.I'd like to say from the data it goes from 2 days before new or full moon syzygy to 5 days after. That keeps us at 50% of the time. If 100% of the quakes fall in 50% of the possible time then we are on to something.
This one does not fit.
1944-12-7 13:35
Apogee Dec 8
New moon Dec 15
Full moon was November 30th. This guy is right in the middle, that is the weakest tide possible. Its a neap tide quake. Pretty sure the 1498 quake is on September 20th.
My source is the NOAA NGDC. NGDC Japan Query Link
#891
07/10/2012 (9:23 pm)
Hm.. is there any chance to figure out the angle in which the moon crosses the plate boundaries at the time of the quakes ? Maybe this could also be of a help. I would guess that its around orthogonal to the plate boundary.
#892
07/10/2012 (9:41 pm)
If the hypothesis is to be understood, it's not the orthogonality of the position of the Moon relative to plate boundaries, but the movement of water across the plate boundaries.
#893
I'm wondering about the question mag 8+ earthquakes (and stress transfer) in fault lines which cross-cross the continents, far from the pressure of ocean tides (e.g. New Madrid fault in U.S.).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone
I believe there is a ground water tide of some sort (?), and perhaps molten magma on the move as well, in response to the moon's gravitational pull. Might these factors be affecting the Tokai seismic zone in Japan--and influencing the outcome of your prediction?
07/10/2012 (10:27 pm)
@Britton:I'm wondering about the question mag 8+ earthquakes (and stress transfer) in fault lines which cross-cross the continents, far from the pressure of ocean tides (e.g. New Madrid fault in U.S.).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone
I believe there is a ground water tide of some sort (?), and perhaps molten magma on the move as well, in response to the moon's gravitational pull. Might these factors be affecting the Tokai seismic zone in Japan--and influencing the outcome of your prediction?
#894
There used to be a website here that explained just these things, but it has since been closed.
Britton, what I remember is that there are two things that can greatly affect earthquakes. The first one is the typhoon/earthquake effect. This was not on the website, but it is of significant interest. One of my Japanese friends once told me if a typhoon crosses the island from east to west it will relieve stress, however if typhoon skirts Japan, which has been happening in recent years, this poses a huge problem for Japan and thus stress will build up and then a major quake occurs. I will say the same thing is partially true for Taiwan. If Taiwan has many typhoons it releases the stress that builds up, so many times when we have a typhoon here we get small earthquakes with it, it is very noticeable and I am sure well documented. There was a news article about this here several years ago.
The second thing, which this website mentioned continually, was that magma, once it spins, due to typhoons or other underground movement or earths influences, plate movement, etc, it will indeed influence earthquakes. I do not recall anything about ground water issues, but it did specifically mention magma. This would absolutely make sense. Unfortunately I am not sure how this guy actually figured all of these out, but he was very accurate in his predictions.
Britton, it is VERY possible that these typhoons which occurred last month in Japan may have influenced the quake from happening. Some stress may have been released when the typhoon approached, I am not sure how many if any quakes occurred during that time, but it could have caused the magma to spin or move out from the area to another location temporarily. However, because these typhoons did not cross Japan even more stress now will be built up in those locations which are already stressed. This is a very interesting phenomenon which occurs in both Japan and Taiwan. I am not sure about other countries.
I was expecting another larger earthquake in Taiwan in early June after we had a 6.5 here, and then everything went silent as the typhoon approached. And until now we have not had any other significant activity. It is worrisome also as all the stress was not released. We had a swarm in eastern Taiwan last month of some 100 quakes in a week, it is still of great interest that this area has now grown silent, it is a worrying prospect. However, that typhoon in June here dumped loads of rain which also causes issues here, we had two quakes in places that we usually do not get them due to that storm, and now we are concerned that there could be a bigger quake in the area where bigger quakes often do not occur. The rain/earthquake effect is also very evident here.
I highly suspect that the recent typhoons in Japan may have altered the dates of your prediction, however the signals and stress remain high, and it is scary because it could just go at anytime due to other ground movements before or after typhoons. In addition, I was once told that if a big earthquake is expected to occur it will actually push the typhoon away from the coast. This has been happening in both Japan and Taiwan for the last few years. It has something to do with the heat or geothermal gases which are produced and most likely magma spin, which probaby cause those gases and maybe higher temperatues to push the typhoons away. You would need to look over the last few years and check the data and I think you will find that in several instances this is quite true. i believe, however, there have been a few typhoons that did cross Japan from East to West but I think there have not been many and they were not strong enough.
Britton I suspect that the quake could still happen, but it seems there are many other things that will influence a quake, the conditions seem have to be just right or will not occur. It's like sort of a matrix ideology.
07/10/2012 (10:58 pm)
Marilyn, thank you for reminding me of something very important that I wanted to mention to Britton.There used to be a website here that explained just these things, but it has since been closed.
Britton, what I remember is that there are two things that can greatly affect earthquakes. The first one is the typhoon/earthquake effect. This was not on the website, but it is of significant interest. One of my Japanese friends once told me if a typhoon crosses the island from east to west it will relieve stress, however if typhoon skirts Japan, which has been happening in recent years, this poses a huge problem for Japan and thus stress will build up and then a major quake occurs. I will say the same thing is partially true for Taiwan. If Taiwan has many typhoons it releases the stress that builds up, so many times when we have a typhoon here we get small earthquakes with it, it is very noticeable and I am sure well documented. There was a news article about this here several years ago.
The second thing, which this website mentioned continually, was that magma, once it spins, due to typhoons or other underground movement or earths influences, plate movement, etc, it will indeed influence earthquakes. I do not recall anything about ground water issues, but it did specifically mention magma. This would absolutely make sense. Unfortunately I am not sure how this guy actually figured all of these out, but he was very accurate in his predictions.
Britton, it is VERY possible that these typhoons which occurred last month in Japan may have influenced the quake from happening. Some stress may have been released when the typhoon approached, I am not sure how many if any quakes occurred during that time, but it could have caused the magma to spin or move out from the area to another location temporarily. However, because these typhoons did not cross Japan even more stress now will be built up in those locations which are already stressed. This is a very interesting phenomenon which occurs in both Japan and Taiwan. I am not sure about other countries.
I was expecting another larger earthquake in Taiwan in early June after we had a 6.5 here, and then everything went silent as the typhoon approached. And until now we have not had any other significant activity. It is worrisome also as all the stress was not released. We had a swarm in eastern Taiwan last month of some 100 quakes in a week, it is still of great interest that this area has now grown silent, it is a worrying prospect. However, that typhoon in June here dumped loads of rain which also causes issues here, we had two quakes in places that we usually do not get them due to that storm, and now we are concerned that there could be a bigger quake in the area where bigger quakes often do not occur. The rain/earthquake effect is also very evident here.
I highly suspect that the recent typhoons in Japan may have altered the dates of your prediction, however the signals and stress remain high, and it is scary because it could just go at anytime due to other ground movements before or after typhoons. In addition, I was once told that if a big earthquake is expected to occur it will actually push the typhoon away from the coast. This has been happening in both Japan and Taiwan for the last few years. It has something to do with the heat or geothermal gases which are produced and most likely magma spin, which probaby cause those gases and maybe higher temperatues to push the typhoons away. You would need to look over the last few years and check the data and I think you will find that in several instances this is quite true. i believe, however, there have been a few typhoons that did cross Japan from East to West but I think there have not been many and they were not strong enough.
Britton I suspect that the quake could still happen, but it seems there are many other things that will influence a quake, the conditions seem have to be just right or will not occur. It's like sort of a matrix ideology.
#895
Yes, I agree this is a "matrix" kind of problem--and all the more challenging. I'm convinced Mr. La Roche has a big part of the puzzle solved with eclipse saros theory. Stress transfer theory has strong merit too. But there's obviously more to be learned.
How would a typhoon create an EQ event? I'm unclear. Instead, could your typhoons be an effect of escaping geothermal gasses rather than a cause of seismic activity? It makes sense to me that typhoon study might be used as "predictor" of earthquakes, somewhat similar to observing unusual animal behavior.
07/11/2012 (12:12 am)
@Seneq: Yes, I agree this is a "matrix" kind of problem--and all the more challenging. I'm convinced Mr. La Roche has a big part of the puzzle solved with eclipse saros theory. Stress transfer theory has strong merit too. But there's obviously more to be learned.
How would a typhoon create an EQ event? I'm unclear. Instead, could your typhoons be an effect of escaping geothermal gasses rather than a cause of seismic activity? It makes sense to me that typhoon study might be used as "predictor" of earthquakes, somewhat similar to observing unusual animal behavior.
#896
typhoons causing earthquakes: news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8094083.stm
video of the same above: www.youtube.com/watch?v=4CkSwnT0Mjo
www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/06/090610133449.htm
Heavy rainfall can caused huge earthquakes: news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2011/11/111215-rainfall-hurricanes-typhoons-ear...
Although the top articles do not mention it, I think part of the reason is due to all the additional water that is being pushed towards the plate boundaries, thus increasing the weight. Much like high tides do thus creasing more pressure and more stress on those already stressed faults.
07/11/2012 (12:25 am)
These links and news articles should answer most of those questions.typhoons causing earthquakes: news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8094083.stm
video of the same above: www.youtube.com/watch?v=4CkSwnT0Mjo
www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/06/090610133449.htm
Heavy rainfall can caused huge earthquakes: news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2011/11/111215-rainfall-hurricanes-typhoons-ear...
Although the top articles do not mention it, I think part of the reason is due to all the additional water that is being pushed towards the plate boundaries, thus increasing the weight. Much like high tides do thus creasing more pressure and more stress on those already stressed faults.
#897
Last month's typhoon was not big and powerful by the time it reached central Japan(it was classed as a tropical storm, not even Cat 1, but out in the Pacific it got to as high as Cat 4)
07/11/2012 (3:52 am)
Typhoons (like other such storms: Hurricanes & Cyclones) produce a storm surge, sometimes as high as 2-3m. Last month's typhoon was not big and powerful by the time it reached central Japan(it was classed as a tropical storm, not even Cat 1, but out in the Pacific it got to as high as Cat 4)
#898
07/11/2012 (4:11 am)
Well, this in turn also means that if there is a long dry period, the water evaporates, the crust gets lighter and this might be another cause of quakes, isnt it?
#899
More water = more lubricant and more weight and thus stress is released.
less water = more stress because no lubricant, but takes longer to occur because no lubricant.
07/11/2012 (4:30 am)
In my thinking either way is possible.More water = more lubricant and more weight and thus stress is released.
less water = more stress because no lubricant, but takes longer to occur because no lubricant.
#900
@Britton: I'm seeing a fair amount of smaller EQ activity today (7/11/12) on the Japanese Meteorological Agency map--including Mag 4.3. Are these occurring in the "hot zone" area of concern?
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/20120711195944391-111954.html
07/11/2012 (11:37 am)
@Seneq: Thank you for the links. Much to think about.@Britton: I'm seeing a fair amount of smaller EQ activity today (7/11/12) on the Japanese Meteorological Agency map--including Mag 4.3. Are these occurring in the "hot zone" area of concern?
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/20120711195944391-111954.html
dennis