Japan Tokai Quake Predicted for late 2016 early 2017
by Britton LaRoche · 01/08/2009 (2:12 pm) · 1262 comments
Update Jan 2013: Quake Database Built and Tested! Results are Here:
Note: Our method for predicting earthquakes has failed for a Southern California earthquake in the Spring 2011 and for the Tokai earthquake in Japan, and for Istanbul in 2012. This method of predicting earthquakes is still just a theory at this point.
In spite of the setbacks over the past year, we have predicted several significant earthquakes (documented in this blog) using a lunar tidal model. An entire community of people have contributed in this blog. Together we watched earthquake patterns as we made predictions. The authors here have contributed by presenting new ideas and linked research. Together we have refined the model over time. We believe the next window for the Japan Tokai quake is now in late 2016 or early 2017.
The Tokai earthquake article quoted below is linked here: geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm
"The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 30 years.... The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2012, it has been 158 years and counting."
Utilizing the theory tha certain lunar and solar eclipse cycles create higher than normal tidal pressure in Japan, we were able to use this model to correctly account for and predict almost all of the past tokai quakes in Japan. See page 43 for the details. www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/43
Current Japan Tokai Predictions based on the Lunar Saros Eclipse Cycle 114 and the resulting tidal pressures.
In the past we were not able to pinpoint the exact location. Using the stress transfer algorithm developed by scientist Jeffrey King and his team we now believe we have a method of predicting both the time and the location. Watch the video here for an explanation.
The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
Actual
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original 2009 Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
Once the donations hit 1 million USD I will quit my full time job and dedicate myself to quake prediction. All I need is a dollar from one million people or a million dollars from one very generous billionaire. Maybe Bill Gates would be interested. ;)
View Stats
Note: Our method for predicting earthquakes has failed for a Southern California earthquake in the Spring 2011 and for the Tokai earthquake in Japan, and for Istanbul in 2012. This method of predicting earthquakes is still just a theory at this point.
In spite of the setbacks over the past year, we have predicted several significant earthquakes (documented in this blog) using a lunar tidal model. An entire community of people have contributed in this blog. Together we watched earthquake patterns as we made predictions. The authors here have contributed by presenting new ideas and linked research. Together we have refined the model over time. We believe the next window for the Japan Tokai quake is now in late 2016 or early 2017.
The Tokai earthquake article quoted below is linked here: geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm
"The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 30 years.... The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2012, it has been 158 years and counting."
Utilizing the theory tha certain lunar and solar eclipse cycles create higher than normal tidal pressure in Japan, we were able to use this model to correctly account for and predict almost all of the past tokai quakes in Japan. See page 43 for the details. www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/43
Current Japan Tokai Predictions based on the Lunar Saros Eclipse Cycle 114 and the resulting tidal pressures.
PREDICTED QUAKE_DATE ECLIPSE_DATE DAYS SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2016-11-19 1498-09-20 1498-12-13 -84 114 8.6 34 138.1 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA 2016-11-19 1498-09-20 1498-12-13 -84 114 7.5 33.5 135.2 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 2017-04-01 1854-12-24 1854-11-20 34 140 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN 2017-04-02 1854-12-24 1854-11-04 50 114 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN
In the past we were not able to pinpoint the exact location. Using the stress transfer algorithm developed by scientist Jeffrey King and his team we now believe we have a method of predicting both the time and the location. Watch the video here for an explanation.
The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
PREDICTED ORIGIN SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-08 1916-04-21 118 7.8 33 141 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
Actual
DATE SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-11 118 9.0 38.30 142.37 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original 2009 Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Magnitude 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
Quote:
Tidal forces may have contributed to triggering the devastating magnitude 9.0 Sumatra earthquake of 2004 and other large earthquakes in the region. Gravitational pull from the Sun and the Moon not only is responsible for ocean tides but also creates Earth tides, slight motions of the solid Earth (bulges and dips in the earth's crust and upper mantle) that can lead to stress buildup (or stress relief) along faults.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Quote:
doi:10.1029/2009GL041581
The frequency distribution of tidal phase angles in the pre-event period exhibited a peak near the angle where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault slip. This implies that the high correlation observed in the pre-seismic stage is not a stochastic chance but is likely a physical consequence of the tidal stress change.
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
Once the donations hit 1 million USD I will quit my full time job and dedicate myself to quake prediction. All I need is a dollar from one million people or a million dollars from one very generous billionaire. Maybe Bill Gates would be interested. ;)
#862
Can you provide links for other such investigations?
07/09/2012 (12:27 am)
@seneq: "based on what I am finding, you are not the only one predicting something to happen in Japan"Can you provide links for other such investigations?
#863
07/09/2012 (1:34 am)
@Musashi, I am sorry to say that because I do not know who you personally that I am not willing to reveal any of my predictions network due to privacy issues at this moment. I have provided some really useful information for this blog and other users have also contributed immensily. I believe you are in Japan and are quite worried. However, there are many articles in this blog that have revealed much information already, and those documents are very useful. If I come across something else that I can share, beleive me, I will.
#864
M6.5 to 8 quake near the west coast of Honshu, near or around 37.6N 138.4E.
This area differs from Britton's area quite a bit, however the predictor who is offering this prediction uses this as a base area only, but the predcition could be more north, south, east or west of this region. This prediction could occur before or around July 18. Note, there was a quake in northern Japan yesturday, I have not spoken to the predictor yet to see if that may have been it, but it seems much too far. They have consulted with others about this possible large quake in Japan also. So if it does not happen there are going to be many people who are wrong, and that is possible, earthquake prediction is still very much in it's infancy, so... But it seems like many people are receiving signals from Japan recently. Including myself.
07/09/2012 (1:44 am)
Here is one of the predictions I can share with you.M6.5 to 8 quake near the west coast of Honshu, near or around 37.6N 138.4E.
This area differs from Britton's area quite a bit, however the predictor who is offering this prediction uses this as a base area only, but the predcition could be more north, south, east or west of this region. This prediction could occur before or around July 18. Note, there was a quake in northern Japan yesturday, I have not spoken to the predictor yet to see if that may have been it, but it seems much too far. They have consulted with others about this possible large quake in Japan also. So if it does not happen there are going to be many people who are wrong, and that is possible, earthquake prediction is still very much in it's infancy, so... But it seems like many people are receiving signals from Japan recently. Including myself.
#865
Earthquake magnitude will be 6.5 or greater when this event occurs, my best estimate of a time frame is between now and July 16. However with how strong the signals are this window may need to stay opened longer. Area of suspect is within Northern Asia including Japan, Taiwan, Eastern China and the Northern Philippines. I cannot be any more specific than this. I highly suspect it could be Japan, however, I am not sure as this is not in the range of my normal areas of prediction.
07/09/2012 (1:55 am)
This is my best estimate at the moment based on the signals received to date. Earthquake magnitude will be 6.5 or greater when this event occurs, my best estimate of a time frame is between now and July 16. However with how strong the signals are this window may need to stay opened longer. Area of suspect is within Northern Asia including Japan, Taiwan, Eastern China and the Northern Philippines. I cannot be any more specific than this. I highly suspect it could be Japan, however, I am not sure as this is not in the range of my normal areas of prediction.
#866
I have been following this blog for a long time (before 03/11) and must confess that the prediction model of Mr. Britton seems to exceed by far than anything i have came across. If he can pinpoint the time with a bit more accuracy...and there we have it...first of its kind model for place and time predictor!
@Britton: Hats off to you for being so generous to share the credits and technical aspects of your work with so many and not just restricting it with some journal aiming a higher impact factor (which sadly someone reading this will eventually try to do so). With people like you around, science still has a chance to come back home.
Keep up the good work. Godspeed!
07/09/2012 (10:34 am)
@seneq: well since i belong to academia...almost all of my friends belonging to disaster management and working in field of seismology (Japan, Korea, China) says similar stuff like you. There are always theories and in a place like Japan, ring of fire give you ample chances to substantiate the claim. Unfortunately my interest was not to barge any of your privacy issues. I have been following this blog for a long time (before 03/11) and must confess that the prediction model of Mr. Britton seems to exceed by far than anything i have came across. If he can pinpoint the time with a bit more accuracy...and there we have it...first of its kind model for place and time predictor!
@Britton: Hats off to you for being so generous to share the credits and technical aspects of your work with so many and not just restricting it with some journal aiming a higher impact factor (which sadly someone reading this will eventually try to do so). With people like you around, science still has a chance to come back home.
Keep up the good work. Godspeed!
#867
It is unfortuante that on this blog I cannot send you a private message so we can get to know each other better and so that I can understand your connections better and then perhaps we could start exchanging more information. Especially if you are closely working with people in the field.
Indeed what you are doing Britton is great, and I do hope though that you are in the mits of writing a journal article. Although everything is here in this blog unless you have copied everything to your own server and have dated records of it, you risk losing crediability of the author. I don't know if you care much about that or not, but you could be on to something that might be one way of accurately predicting quakes. Though again the pursuit of such things are quite elusive, we all have made mistakes with our predictions. But are weather centers any better? HA@!!
07/09/2012 (11:53 am)
@Musashi, I know many people in the academia field who distrust all predictors. And I can understand why. There are many whom just like to claim things without facts or a tract record that cause panic and fear. The people who are around me do no such things. I know you are not trying to do harm, but there are some things I cannot share as they are indeed working on papers and are afraid some may try to steal them just like you have mentioned here might happen, and truthfully I hope it does not happen. I have been following this blog since before December of 2009, just a little after he started this blog, because I am greatly interested in what Britton is doing. If he can verify the data with a scientific twist, it would greatly validate a lot of the other ways people predict earthquakes, such as ear tones, earthquake clouds, emi, and the list goes on. I have much interest in this field as I too live in an active earthquake zone and have been approximately 80-90% accurate with my predictions for this region. It is unfortuante that on this blog I cannot send you a private message so we can get to know each other better and so that I can understand your connections better and then perhaps we could start exchanging more information. Especially if you are closely working with people in the field.
Indeed what you are doing Britton is great, and I do hope though that you are in the mits of writing a journal article. Although everything is here in this blog unless you have copied everything to your own server and have dated records of it, you risk losing crediability of the author. I don't know if you care much about that or not, but you could be on to something that might be one way of accurately predicting quakes. Though again the pursuit of such things are quite elusive, we all have made mistakes with our predictions. But are weather centers any better? HA@!!
#868
In my opinion, a 6.5 quake is nothing special or that unusual.
The Tokai earthquakes over the past 1500 years have all been between Mag 7.9 & 8.5(around 8 quakes, average around 8.3)
Nankai quakes (where Britton has predicted) between 7.9 & 8.6 (around 9 quakes, average around 8.3)
Tonankai quakes seem to rupture at the same time as Tokai or Nankai, so are generally grouped together, although the 1944 Tonankai quake ruptured by itself at Mag 8.1 It's therefore likely that the 1944 quake has placed stress on both the Tokai & Nankai quake regions.
Also, your location is near Sado Island & Niigata City. Isn't a Mag 8 quake in that location quite unusual?
07/09/2012 (4:12 pm)
@ seneq "M6.5 to 8 quake near the west coast of Honshu, near or around 37.6N 138.4E. "In my opinion, a 6.5 quake is nothing special or that unusual.
The Tokai earthquakes over the past 1500 years have all been between Mag 7.9 & 8.5(around 8 quakes, average around 8.3)
Nankai quakes (where Britton has predicted) between 7.9 & 8.6 (around 9 quakes, average around 8.3)
Tonankai quakes seem to rupture at the same time as Tokai or Nankai, so are generally grouped together, although the 1944 Tonankai quake ruptured by itself at Mag 8.1 It's therefore likely that the 1944 quake has placed stress on both the Tokai & Nankai quake regions.
Also, your location is near Sado Island & Niigata City. Isn't a Mag 8 quake in that location quite unusual?
#869
Britton Kudos to you for spending so much time with this.
07/09/2012 (7:43 pm)
@Sandy, I was simply passing on information. I need to make sure you read the entire message. That prediction is NOT from me. And I also said that the coordinantes are NOT always correct. Indeed he is not predicting a quake in the exact place where we are talking about, I was simply giving information, which I will now refrain from doing. 6.5 is still significant if it hits in a populated area. If you have more experience in earthquake prediction than I will leave it in your hands. I will not offer information anymore. This is Brittons blog, I will not argue with other users here... Britton Kudos to you for spending so much time with this.
#870
The method I am using is only an enhanced method of what Jim Berkland proposed. He deserves full credit. I'm using a database to help find correlations and I plan on making this a computer product available for anyone to use. Basically I'm circumventing the whole academic and scientific process. It seems kind of broken at the moment.
Still, I am interested in publishing a paper. I think the more I can get these ideas introduced into academic and scientific circles the better. I'd be happy to post links to the paper here if you are interested in reading it and giving me some pointers.
@Sandy, you seem very knowledgeable on the Tokai quake. What is your background in this area?
@Seneq, always good to get your feedback. You have provided quite a bit of good information over the years.
I have really mixed emotions on the Tokai quake. I'd like to test this theory out and have it be useful. Honestly its not worth 400,000 lives. I hope I am wrong about the 2012 date and that I get 5 more years to prove out the algorithm. I'm praying the quake hits in 2017 and we have a good enough prediction routine that the Japanese government and people have time to plan and evacuate ahead of time.
07/09/2012 (8:04 pm)
@Musashi, my primary motivation for doing this is to stimulate discussion where it is needed. Most academic and scientific institutions think earthquake prediction is impossible. The method I am using is only an enhanced method of what Jim Berkland proposed. He deserves full credit. I'm using a database to help find correlations and I plan on making this a computer product available for anyone to use. Basically I'm circumventing the whole academic and scientific process. It seems kind of broken at the moment.
Still, I am interested in publishing a paper. I think the more I can get these ideas introduced into academic and scientific circles the better. I'd be happy to post links to the paper here if you are interested in reading it and giving me some pointers.
@Sandy, you seem very knowledgeable on the Tokai quake. What is your background in this area?
@Seneq, always good to get your feedback. You have provided quite a bit of good information over the years.
I have really mixed emotions on the Tokai quake. I'd like to test this theory out and have it be useful. Honestly its not worth 400,000 lives. I hope I am wrong about the 2012 date and that I get 5 more years to prove out the algorithm. I'm praying the quake hits in 2017 and we have a good enough prediction routine that the Japanese government and people have time to plan and evacuate ahead of time.
#871
It shows that estimations provided by the japanese government so far are still not very accurate, and there is much space for improvement.
07/09/2012 (8:27 pm)
Regarding EQ prediction in Japan, I just found another interesting article: www.japanprobe.com/2012/01/25/earthquakes-cannot-be-predicted-official-japanese-...It shows that estimations provided by the japanese government so far are still not very accurate, and there is much space for improvement.
#873
www.nature.com/nature/journal/v472/n7344/abs/nature10105.html
Honestly, I'd invite him to stay in the Tokai region for the next couple of months.
Here is my quote. Giving up is never the solution to a scientific problem. -- Britton LaRoche 2012
07/09/2012 (8:50 pm)
@Dennis, Geller is the Devil. As far as I am concerned the man who says something cannot be done is doing nothing more than discouraging or halting progress. Its people like him that are the reason we cannot predict earthquakes today with all our advanced technology. When they teach students what Geller says they wipe out a whole generation of people willing to try.Quote:
In April of 2011, Nature published Shake-up time for Japanese seismology by Professor Robert J. Geller of Tokyo University (Japanese version available here). Geller argues that earthquakes cannot be reliably predicted.
www.nature.com/nature/journal/v472/n7344/abs/nature10105.html
Quote:
Robert J. Geller calls on Japan to stop using flawed methods for long-term forecasts and to scrap its system for trying to predict the 'Tokai earthquake'.
Honestly, I'd invite him to stay in the Tokai region for the next couple of months.
Here is my quote. Giving up is never the solution to a scientific problem. -- Britton LaRoche 2012
#875
Your current method seems very promising and I am looking forward to the refined results when you include a correlation of the angles of the orbit and the distances of sun-earth and moon-earth.
I was just surprised to see how wrong the officiel seismic hazard map was.
btw, just a 3rd M4.5 near Niigata - wondering whats going on there. Aftershocks are usually more weak. Seeing this region, I remember that there was a facility to inject CO2 into the earth, which cause a quite strong quake a few years ago there.
07/09/2012 (9:04 pm)
Britton, I agree that trying to give up is definitely the wrong way!Your current method seems very promising and I am looking forward to the refined results when you include a correlation of the angles of the orbit and the distances of sun-earth and moon-earth.
I was just surprised to see how wrong the officiel seismic hazard map was.
btw, just a 3rd M4.5 near Niigata - wondering whats going on there. Aftershocks are usually more weak. Seeing this region, I remember that there was a facility to inject CO2 into the earth, which cause a quite strong quake a few years ago there.
#876
07/09/2012 (9:10 pm)
@Dennis can you post an image of the quakes? I'm not seeing them.
#877
update - now its there:
www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/20120710125247391-101249.html
07/09/2012 (9:14 pm)
they have been just a few minutes ago, so I guess they are not yet listedupdate - now its there:
www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/20120710125247391-101249.html
#878
07/09/2012 (9:15 pm)
Does Geller live in Japan?
#879
ns.eps.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp/en/member/index.php?_urid=1386&_lang=en
07/09/2012 (9:18 pm)
I guess he does. He is working at the Univ. of Tokyo:ns.eps.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp/en/member/index.php?_urid=1386&_lang=en
#880
Thank you for your comments.
Here is the first one: But in my opinion it is too small, a 6.5 or greater is still on the way somewhere in Northern Asia. earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000b1hl#summary
You can check this map for the others, some of them are still orange.
earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/
Edit, seems Dennis already posted the picture from Japan, that is more useful.
07/09/2012 (9:18 pm)
Britton,Thank you for your comments.
Here is the first one: But in my opinion it is too small, a 6.5 or greater is still on the way somewhere in Northern Asia. earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000b1hl#summary
You can check this map for the others, some of them are still orange.
earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/
Edit, seems Dennis already posted the picture from Japan, that is more useful.
seneq
Keep in mind one thing, we don't need to see any foreshock or pre-slip in order to get a big quake. The stress build up could snap at any time. If Japan is different than this would be a great way to monitor when big quakes are going to happen, but we have seen in other areas of the world where there was literally no warning. There weren't any foreshocks or pre-slips. We'll just have to wait to see what happens. But based on what I am finding, you are not the only one predicting something to happen in Japan, there is a still a very high danger rate for all of the Tokyo Bay and areas just south of Tokyo including Osaka.