Japan Tokai Quake Predicted for late 2016 early 2017
by Britton LaRoche · 01/08/2009 (2:12 pm) · 1262 comments
Update Jan 2013: Quake Database Built and Tested! Results are Here:
Note: Our method for predicting earthquakes has failed for a Southern California earthquake in the Spring 2011 and for the Tokai earthquake in Japan, and for Istanbul in 2012. This method of predicting earthquakes is still just a theory at this point.
In spite of the setbacks over the past year, we have predicted several significant earthquakes (documented in this blog) using a lunar tidal model. An entire community of people have contributed in this blog. Together we watched earthquake patterns as we made predictions. The authors here have contributed by presenting new ideas and linked research. Together we have refined the model over time. We believe the next window for the Japan Tokai quake is now in late 2016 or early 2017.
The Tokai earthquake article quoted below is linked here: geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm
"The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 30 years.... The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2012, it has been 158 years and counting."
Utilizing the theory tha certain lunar and solar eclipse cycles create higher than normal tidal pressure in Japan, we were able to use this model to correctly account for and predict almost all of the past tokai quakes in Japan. See page 43 for the details. www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/43
Current Japan Tokai Predictions based on the Lunar Saros Eclipse Cycle 114 and the resulting tidal pressures.
In the past we were not able to pinpoint the exact location. Using the stress transfer algorithm developed by scientist Jeffrey King and his team we now believe we have a method of predicting both the time and the location. Watch the video here for an explanation.
The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
Actual
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original 2009 Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
Once the donations hit 1 million USD I will quit my full time job and dedicate myself to quake prediction. All I need is a dollar from one million people or a million dollars from one very generous billionaire. Maybe Bill Gates would be interested. ;)
View Stats
Note: Our method for predicting earthquakes has failed for a Southern California earthquake in the Spring 2011 and for the Tokai earthquake in Japan, and for Istanbul in 2012. This method of predicting earthquakes is still just a theory at this point.
In spite of the setbacks over the past year, we have predicted several significant earthquakes (documented in this blog) using a lunar tidal model. An entire community of people have contributed in this blog. Together we watched earthquake patterns as we made predictions. The authors here have contributed by presenting new ideas and linked research. Together we have refined the model over time. We believe the next window for the Japan Tokai quake is now in late 2016 or early 2017.
The Tokai earthquake article quoted below is linked here: geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm
"The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 30 years.... The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2012, it has been 158 years and counting."
Utilizing the theory tha certain lunar and solar eclipse cycles create higher than normal tidal pressure in Japan, we were able to use this model to correctly account for and predict almost all of the past tokai quakes in Japan. See page 43 for the details. www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/43
Current Japan Tokai Predictions based on the Lunar Saros Eclipse Cycle 114 and the resulting tidal pressures.
PREDICTED QUAKE_DATE ECLIPSE_DATE DAYS SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2016-11-19 1498-09-20 1498-12-13 -84 114 8.6 34 138.1 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA 2016-11-19 1498-09-20 1498-12-13 -84 114 7.5 33.5 135.2 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 2017-04-01 1854-12-24 1854-11-20 34 140 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN 2017-04-02 1854-12-24 1854-11-04 50 114 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN
In the past we were not able to pinpoint the exact location. Using the stress transfer algorithm developed by scientist Jeffrey King and his team we now believe we have a method of predicting both the time and the location. Watch the video here for an explanation.
The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
PREDICTED ORIGIN SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-08 1916-04-21 118 7.8 33 141 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
Actual
DATE SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-11 118 9.0 38.30 142.37 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original 2009 Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Magnitude 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
Quote:
Tidal forces may have contributed to triggering the devastating magnitude 9.0 Sumatra earthquake of 2004 and other large earthquakes in the region. Gravitational pull from the Sun and the Moon not only is responsible for ocean tides but also creates Earth tides, slight motions of the solid Earth (bulges and dips in the earth's crust and upper mantle) that can lead to stress buildup (or stress relief) along faults.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Quote:
doi:10.1029/2009GL041581
The frequency distribution of tidal phase angles in the pre-event period exhibited a peak near the angle where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault slip. This implies that the high correlation observed in the pre-seismic stage is not a stochastic chance but is likely a physical consequence of the tidal stress change.
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
Once the donations hit 1 million USD I will quit my full time job and dedicate myself to quake prediction. All I need is a dollar from one million people or a million dollars from one very generous billionaire. Maybe Bill Gates would be interested. ;)
#842
.... see below ...
07/07/2012 (8:19 am)
@Dennis, Here is the list of Eclipse Saros I used to generate predictions. Most Tokai quakes occur with a delay after the eclipse. The moon continues to have higher than spring tides tides at full moon and new moon syzygy directly following the eclipse. .... see below ...
#843
www.ngdc.noaa.gov/nndc/struts/form?t=101650&s=1&d=1 Japan's Significant Quake list here:
NGDC Japan Query Link
07/07/2012 (8:30 am)
@seneq, the USGS has an incomplete list of quakes prior to 1973. The best source I have found for quakes prior to 1973 is the NGDC. I downloaded the entire NOAA NGDC database as a flat file and then loaded it into my database.www.ngdc.noaa.gov/ Quake search here:www.ngdc.noaa.gov/nndc/struts/form?t=101650&s=1&d=1 Japan's Significant Quake list here:
NGDC Japan Query Link
#844
07/07/2012 (3:34 pm)
Okay... so here it is. I used this method to predict previous tokai quakes... with a good degree of success. Here are the results, judge for yourself. I was able to predict all previous tokai quakes (except 1605 and 1707) using my method! It was off 30 to 90 days... So this means... We may see a quake in November instead of July of this year. See Below for the list of all Tokai quakes and the related eclipse, the saros and the days before or after.
#845
07/07/2012 (6:00 pm)
oh no... I left out a few dates. When I included the following data the correlation is even higher.('684','0684','887','0887','1096','1099','1498','1605','1707','1854','1944','1945')PREDICTED QUAKE_DATE ECLIPSE_DATE DAYS SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0684-06-18 1099-02-22 1099-05-22 -89 84 8.4 33 135.5 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 0887-07-09 1099-02-22 1098-12-11 73 91 8.4 33 135.5 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 1099-04-11 0887-08-26 0887-10-20 -55 96 8.6 33 135.3 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 1099-08-05 0684-11-29 0684-09-15 75 84 8.4 32.5 134 JAPAN 1498-05-06 1096-12-17 1097-01-30 -44 109 8.4 34 137.5 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA 1498-11-21 1944-12-07 1944-12-29 -22 114 8.1 34 137.1 JAPAN: OFF SOUTHEAST COAST KII PENINSULA 1498-12-28 1945-01-12 1944-12-29 15 114 7.1 34.7 137.2 JAPAN: HONSHU: S 1854-03-29 1096-12-17 1097-01-30 -44 109 8.4 34 137.5 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA 1854-08-12 1498-09-20 1498-12-13 -84 114 8.6 34 138.1 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA 1854-08-12 1498-09-20 1498-12-13 -84 114 7.5 33.5 135.2 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 1854-10-13 1944-12-07 1944-12-29 -22 114 8.1 34 137.1 JAPAN: OFF SOUTHEAST COAST KII PENINSULA 1854-10-13 1944-12-07 1945-01-14 -38 140 8.1 34 137.1 JAPAN: OFF SOUTHEAST COAST KII PENINSULA 1854-11-19 1945-01-12 1944-12-29 15 114 7.1 34.7 137.2 JAPAN: HONSHU: S 1854-11-19 1945-01-12 1945-01-14 -1 140 7.1 34.7 137.2 JAPAN: HONSHU: S 1944-05-23 1096-12-17 1097-01-30 -44 109 8.4 34 137.5 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA 1944-10-06 1498-09-20 1498-12-13 -84 114 8.6 34 138.1 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA 1944-10-06 1498-09-20 1498-12-13 -84 114 7.5 33.5 135.2 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 1945-02-17 1854-12-24 1854-11-04 50 114 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN 1945-02-17 1854-12-24 1854-11-20 34 140 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN 2012-04-27 1944-12-07 1945-01-14 -38 140 8.1 34 137.1 JAPAN: OFF SOUTHEAST COAST KII PENINSULA 2012-06-03 1945-01-12 1945-01-14 -1 140 7.1 34.7 137.2 JAPAN: HONSHU: S 2012-07-08 1854-12-24 1854-11-20 34 140 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN 2013-12-16 1099-02-22 1098-12-25 59 117 8.4 33 135.5 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 2014-05-02 1707-10-28 1707-10-25 3 148 8.4 34.1 137.8 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA 2014-05-02 1707-10-28 1707-10-25 3 148 8.4 33.2 134.8 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 2015-01-20 1605-02-03 1605-04-18 -74 132 7.9 33 134.9 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 2016-11-19 1498-09-20 1498-12-13 -84 114 8.6 34 138.1 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA 2016-11-19 1498-09-20 1498-12-13 -84 114 7.5 33.5 135.2 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 2017-01-19 1944-12-07 1945-01-14 -38 140 8.1 34 137.1 JAPAN: OFF SOUTHEAST COAST KII PENINSULA 2017-01-20 1944-12-07 1944-12-29 -22 114 8.1 34 137.1 JAPAN: OFF SOUTHEAST COAST KII PENINSULA 2017-02-25 1945-01-12 1945-01-14 -1 140 7.1 34.7 137.2 JAPAN: HONSHU: S 2017-02-26 1945-01-12 1944-12-29 15 114 7.1 34.7 137.2 JAPAN: HONSHU: S 2017-04-01 1854-12-24 1854-11-20 34 140 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN 2017-04-02 1854-12-24 1854-11-04 50 114 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN
#846
As usual you can see it did over predict... The important thing here is the Tokai quake is related to particular saros cycles. The eclipse sets things in motion that takes a few months to release the potential kinetic energy.
I'm pretty sure that we will see the Tokai quake between now and November. If not you have my other predictions. I'm fairly certain that we do have a correlation to the lunar Saros series listed above.
If we don't get the Tokai quake in 2012 my next best guess is 2017 based on the lunar Saros. Something tells me it will be this year, and sooner than later.
The best way to test a theory is to see if it works with known data. I'd say it works pretty well only 1605 and 1707 don't really fit with my model. Everything else seems to be correlated well to the lunar saros tidal theory triggering the past Tokai quakes.
07/07/2012 (6:22 pm)
Here are the results. My quake database was able to correlate all tokai quakes and make accurate predictions (within 120 days) on ALL PREVIOUS Tokai quakes except for the years 1605 and 1707. EVENT TYPE QUAKE_DATE MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PREDICTED 0684-06-18 8.4 33 135.5 JAPAN: NANKAIDO ACTUAL 0684-09-15 8.4 32.5 134 JAPAN
EVENT TYPE QUAKE_DATE MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PREDICTED 1099-04-11 8.6 33 135.3 JAPAN: NANKAIDO PREDICTED 1099-08-05 8.4 32.5 134 JAPAN ACTUAL 1099-02-22 8.4 33 135.5 JAPAN: NANKAIDO
EVENT TYPE QUAKE_DATE MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PREDICTED 1498-05-06 8.4 34 137.5 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA PREDICTED 1498-11-21 8.1 34 137.1 JAPAN: OFF SOUTHEAST COAST KII PENINSULA PREDICTED 1498-12-28 7.1 34.7 137.2 JAPAN: HONSHU: S ACTUAL 1498-09-20 8.6 34 138.1 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA ACTUAL 1498-09-20 7.5 33.5 135.2 JAPAN: NANKAIDO
EVENT TYPE QUAKE_DATE MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PREDICTED 1854-03-29 8.4 34 137.5 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA PREDICTED 1854-08-12 8.6 34 138.1 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA PREDICTED 1854-08-12 7.5 33.5 135.2 JAPAN: NANKAIDO PREDICTED 1854-10-13 8.1 34 137.1 JAPAN: OFF SOUTHEAST COAST KII PENINSULA PREDICTED 1854-11-19 7.1 34.7 137.2 JAPAN: HONSHU: S ACTUAL 1854-12-24 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN
EVENT TYPE QUAKE_DATE MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PREDICTED 1944-05-23 8.4 34 137.5 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA PREDICTED 1944-10-06 8.6 34 138.1 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA PREDICTED 1944-10-06 7.5 33.5 135.2 JAPAN: NANKAIDO ACTUAL 1944-12-29 7.1 34.7 137.2 JAPAN: HONSHU: S
EVENT TYPE QUAKE_DATE MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PREDICTED 1945-02-17 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN PREDICTED 1945-02-17 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN ACTUAL 1945-01-14 7.1 34.7 137.2 JAPAN: HONSHU: S
As usual you can see it did over predict... The important thing here is the Tokai quake is related to particular saros cycles. The eclipse sets things in motion that takes a few months to release the potential kinetic energy.
I'm pretty sure that we will see the Tokai quake between now and November. If not you have my other predictions. I'm fairly certain that we do have a correlation to the lunar Saros series listed above.
If we don't get the Tokai quake in 2012 my next best guess is 2017 based on the lunar Saros. Something tells me it will be this year, and sooner than later.
The best way to test a theory is to see if it works with known data. I'd say it works pretty well only 1605 and 1707 don't really fit with my model. Everything else seems to be correlated well to the lunar saros tidal theory triggering the past Tokai quakes.
#847
There is an opinion that the 1707 may not related with Tokai EQ. It was another super-massive earthquake. If so, Your model is correct and this is the why 1707 don't really fit with your model.
http://translate.google.co.jp/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A//sankei.jp.msn.com/smp/west/west_life/news/120115/wlf12011519310012-s.htm
07/07/2012 (7:09 pm)
Britton,There is an opinion that the 1707 may not related with Tokai EQ. It was another super-massive earthquake. If so, Your model is correct and this is the why 1707 don't really fit with your model.
http://translate.google.co.jp/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A//sankei.jp.msn.com/smp/west/west_life/news/120115/wlf12011519310012-s.htm
#848
I think even the prediction is not accurate on the day but within a few months, its an important step in EQ research and worth a research paper.
So you correlate earth-moon distance + angle of the lunar orbit + angle of the earths orbit around the sun + the EQs periodicity?
Then, is it possible to compute also the percentage of correlation for each prediction? Like if 2012 correlates better than 2017 e.g.?
I wonder if its further possible to include a stress computation by summing up smaller earthquakes and using gps data in this region. Like if there is no larger quake for a long time, it means stress is accumulating, and I guess the plate slows down until a big one releases this stress. But this requires a large database..
07/07/2012 (8:36 pm)
Britton, thank you very much for the detailed explanation and especially the back-testing!I think even the prediction is not accurate on the day but within a few months, its an important step in EQ research and worth a research paper.
So you correlate earth-moon distance + angle of the lunar orbit + angle of the earths orbit around the sun + the EQs periodicity?
Then, is it possible to compute also the percentage of correlation for each prediction? Like if 2012 correlates better than 2017 e.g.?
I wonder if its further possible to include a stress computation by summing up smaller earthquakes and using gps data in this region. Like if there is no larger quake for a long time, it means stress is accumulating, and I guess the plate slows down until a big one releases this stress. But this requires a large database..
#849
Infact, if we take a close look we can see that the three earthquakes in past 7 days (m4.8, 4.7 and 4.4) happened exactly over the Philippine sea plate converging with main land Japan.
If this is really the pre-shock, next 48 hours will be decisive for entire Japan. Fingers crossed!
07/07/2012 (9:50 pm)
Guys I think the much talked pre-shock happened today. It was of magnitude 4.4 7km E of Shingu, Japan (USGS data). However, this was not recorded by JMA which shows a weak 2.2 near Kyoto around this time.Infact, if we take a close look we can see that the three earthquakes in past 7 days (m4.8, 4.7 and 4.4) happened exactly over the Philippine sea plate converging with main land Japan.
If this is really the pre-shock, next 48 hours will be decisive for entire Japan. Fingers crossed!
#850
I think this will buy me an extra 120 days that may be needed to make the prediction a little more accurate.
My quake database was able to correlate all tokai quakes and make accurate predictions (within 120 days) on ALL PREVIOUS Tokai quakes except for the years 1605 and 1707.
Not yet, all of that will be part of the 3d engine. Most of the lunar orbit angle is taken care of by the saros calculation. It does differ over time so its not perfect, but close enough for me to make a correlation in the database.
The true simulator will show all the angles and distances in 3D along with the quake data. I want to have a short hand way of showing angles to previous quakes in a way we can actually visualize.
@Musashi, Right you are! So it begins. It may not actually be tomorrow, but if we do see more of these Mag 4.6 to 6.0 over then next few days I think we are seeing the preslip event.
07/07/2012 (9:58 pm)
@Dennis, Thank you for asking the question and going through the effort of posting what you found here. It forced me to go back and get the exact answers. The effort if communicating it made me test the theory on previous quakes. Here is a short synopsis I will post on the header page if the quake does not hit tomorrow.I think this will buy me an extra 120 days that may be needed to make the prediction a little more accurate.
My quake database was able to correlate all tokai quakes and make accurate predictions (within 120 days) on ALL PREVIOUS Tokai quakes except for the years 1605 and 1707.
EVENT TYPE QUAKE_DATE MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PREDICTED 0684-06-18 8.4 33 135.5 JAPAN: NANKAIDO ACTUAL 0684-09-15 8.4 32.5 134 JAPAN PREDICTED 1099-04-11 8.6 33 135.3 JAPAN: NANKAIDO ACTUAL 1099-02-22 8.4 33 135.5 JAPAN: NANKAIDO PREDICTED 1498-11-21 8.1 34 137.1 JAPAN: OFF SOUTHEAST COAST KII PENINSULA PREDICTED 1498-12-28 7.1 34.7 137.2 JAPAN: HONSHU: S ACTUAL 1498-09-20 8.6 34 138.1 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA ACTUAL 1498-09-20 7.5 33.5 135.2 JAPAN: NANKAIDO PREDICTED 1854-10-13 8.1 34 137.1 JAPAN: OFF SOUTHEAST COAST KII PENINSULA PREDICTED 1854-11-19 7.1 34.7 137.2 JAPAN: HONSHU: S ACTUAL 1854-12-24 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN PREDICTED 1944-10-06 7.5 33.5 135.2 JAPAN: NANKAIDO ACTUAL 1944-12-29 7.1 34.7 137.2 JAPAN: HONSHU: S PREDICTED 1945-02-17 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN ACTUAL 1945-01-14 7.1 34.7 137.2 JAPAN: HONSHU: S
Quote:
So you correlate earth-moon distance + angle of the lunar orbit + angle of the earths orbit around the sun + the EQs periodicity?
Not yet, all of that will be part of the 3d engine. Most of the lunar orbit angle is taken care of by the saros calculation. It does differ over time so its not perfect, but close enough for me to make a correlation in the database.
The true simulator will show all the angles and distances in 3D along with the quake data. I want to have a short hand way of showing angles to previous quakes in a way we can actually visualize.
@Musashi, Right you are! So it begins. It may not actually be tomorrow, but if we do see more of these Mag 4.6 to 6.0 over then next few days I think we are seeing the preslip event.
#851
07/07/2012 (10:02 pm)
Yea on the http://earthquake.usgs.gov we can clearly see that one, and it's definitely where it should be if we will get the Tokai quake.....
#852
Thanks Britton and Henrik for putting the image as I didn't know how to do the same.
07/07/2012 (10:09 pm)
I am amazed and shocked as why JMA missed such a vital pre-shock so close along the coast? Anyways... if this prediction is to be believed and going by the earlier trends a preshock is followed by the main earthquake by 48 hours or so.Thanks Britton and Henrik for putting the image as I didn't know how to do the same.
#853
I've added in the overall quake cycle, and the stress transfer theory to make a more complete prediction.
More an SAROS here
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saros_%28astronomy%29
In the image below we see the changes in SAROS every hundred years or so. The important thing to realize is that it remains relatively unchanged in 18 years, slightly changed in hundreds. It traverses the globe over thousands of years. Below we see the entire life span of Saros 136.
Solar eclipses occurring near the Moon's descending node are given even saros series numbers. The first eclipse of each series starts at the southern limb of the Earth and the eclipse's path is shifted northward with each successive saros.
This is why we don't have the exact same saros associated with each Tokai quake, and why I think it goes from 109 to 114, 140, 148 etc...
07/07/2012 (10:32 pm)
Just so everyone knows how my method works. I look for an eclipse with in 90 days of a major earthquake. I look up the SAROS associated with that eclipse. I take the same number of days and add it to an eclipse in the future withe the same SAROS to make the prediction.I've added in the overall quake cycle, and the stress transfer theory to make a more complete prediction.
More an SAROS here
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saros_%28astronomy%29
In the image below we see the changes in SAROS every hundred years or so. The important thing to realize is that it remains relatively unchanged in 18 years, slightly changed in hundreds. It traverses the globe over thousands of years. Below we see the entire life span of Saros 136.
Solar eclipses occurring near the Moon's descending node are given even saros series numbers. The first eclipse of each series starts at the southern limb of the Earth and the eclipse's path is shifted northward with each successive saros.
This is why we don't have the exact same saros associated with each Tokai quake, and why I think it goes from 109 to 114, 140, 148 etc...
#854
07/08/2012 (8:57 am)
@Britton : Thanks for your prediction and concern for the people living in japan,,Cant understand your Tech words and answers!!So, Please tell me will this mega quake coming in july or not according to your theory and latest calculations?? As people reading this Blog daily including meliving in tokai region got panic and afraid... God Bless u, me and japan!!
#855
In my opinion Japan is in danger now through October for the Tokai quake.
Scientists agree thee is more than a 70% chance of the Tokai quake hitting in the next few years. I believe its related to Saros 140 which will return in 2017. So its either now or 2017 in my opinion.
Regardless of my predictions, if all the scientists agree that its imminent we need to prepare for it.
07/08/2012 (11:55 am)
Peter I think there is a good chance we will see the Tokai quake in Japan in the next 60 to 90 days. After looking at the previous track record, my predictions are off by an average of two months for the Tokai earthquake.In my opinion Japan is in danger now through October for the Tokai quake.
Scientists agree thee is more than a 70% chance of the Tokai quake hitting in the next few years. I believe its related to Saros 140 which will return in 2017. So its either now or 2017 in my opinion.
Regardless of my predictions, if all the scientists agree that its imminent we need to prepare for it.
#856
After looking through data and the images it looks like Saros 114 is the real culprit. If SAROS 140 was just correlated by chance, that would mean Japan has 5 more years to prepare. Saros 140 was present in 1854 and 1945 so that is a big coincidence. 114 and 140 both make an appearance in 2017. I'd put money on 2017 for sure if it does not hit in the next 60 days.
SAROS 114
SAROS 140
07/08/2012 (12:17 pm)
Trying to capture all the saros animations for the ones associated with the Tokai quake to find any similarities. The problem is these are all solar eclipse animations. For example, Saros 114 ends in 1931 but has lunar eclipses through 2071. After looking through data and the images it looks like Saros 114 is the real culprit. If SAROS 140 was just correlated by chance, that would mean Japan has 5 more years to prepare. Saros 140 was present in 1854 and 1945 so that is a big coincidence. 114 and 140 both make an appearance in 2017. I'd put money on 2017 for sure if it does not hit in the next 60 days.
SAROS 114
SAROS 140
#857
The 2011 preshock was a 7.2 (around 2 magnitudes below the main shock) and it was followed by around 30 Mag 4.5 - 5.5 shocks before the big one.
If we had any preshock, I'd expect either a Mag 6-6.5, or a cluster of 10-15 shocks ranging from 4.5-5.7 over a few days.
07/08/2012 (3:54 pm)
In my opinion, a Mag 4.4 is too small to be a preshock for a large shock of, say, Mag 8, unless there is a localized cluster of shocks up to maybe just under Mag 6.The 2011 preshock was a 7.2 (around 2 magnitudes below the main shock) and it was followed by around 30 Mag 4.5 - 5.5 shocks before the big one.
If we had any preshock, I'd expect either a Mag 6-6.5, or a cluster of 10-15 shocks ranging from 4.5-5.7 over a few days.
#858
Thanks again for all your hard work. I've been trying to follow along with all your recent posts and it seems that your model is able to predict most of the previous tokai quakes... but is it also producing any false-positives (does it predict any quakes that DIDN'T happen)?
Just curious,
Jeffrey
07/08/2012 (4:15 pm)
Mr. LaRoche,Thanks again for all your hard work. I've been trying to follow along with all your recent posts and it seems that your model is able to predict most of the previous tokai quakes... but is it also producing any false-positives (does it predict any quakes that DIDN'T happen)?
Just curious,
Jeffrey
#859
I am fascinated with your work and have been following it for months.
Thank you for all the work you have put into trying to find patterns and solve the puzzle of earthquake prediction. What a fantastic tool for humanity should your theory be true.
These past months I have been very nervous for the people of japan (who do not need anymore catastrophes in their lives) and for the world (should a cascade of failed NPPs occur because of earthquake activity). I watch for earthquakes everyday and hold my breath.
Today I have noticed several large 4.5+ earthquakes around the Kuril Islands. Could that indicate slipping of the Pacific plate?
I think Jeffrey has a great question. I was trying to think of a way that your theory can be falsifiable. I think that is part of the scientific method. (college was a way long time ago! :))
Anyway, I just wanted to say thank you again for all your hard work and I will keep watching.
Janelle
07/08/2012 (7:23 pm)
Hi, Britton,I am fascinated with your work and have been following it for months.
Thank you for all the work you have put into trying to find patterns and solve the puzzle of earthquake prediction. What a fantastic tool for humanity should your theory be true.
These past months I have been very nervous for the people of japan (who do not need anymore catastrophes in their lives) and for the world (should a cascade of failed NPPs occur because of earthquake activity). I watch for earthquakes everyday and hold my breath.
Today I have noticed several large 4.5+ earthquakes around the Kuril Islands. Could that indicate slipping of the Pacific plate?
I think Jeffrey has a great question. I was trying to think of a way that your theory can be falsifiable. I think that is part of the scientific method. (college was a way long time ago! :))
Anyway, I just wanted to say thank you again for all your hard work and I will keep watching.
Janelle
#860
@Jeffery, yes my database over predicts. I have to account for the quake cycle, other wise it predicts a quake every 18 years when the same Saros returns. The same saros will produce a solar / lunar eclipse flip in about 13 years. So my database will repeat the prediction about every 12 to 18 years. That is enough time to produce another magnitude 5.0 or 6.0 in most quake prone regions.
I have plenty of failed predictions. I've also nailed quite a few correctly. I think I'm on to something, but I need to temper the predictions with an algorithm to calculate the stress build up for each region. With out a true understanding of how much stress is ready to move it will continue to predict quakes that don't happen. In this case we can all agree we have enough stress for the Tokai quake. So I'm confident that its either now or in 2017.
@Janelle, we are about to see this prediction become false. I'm buying another 90 or so days based the data used to predict the past tokai quakes. If it does not strike then this prediction is false. Usually I only give my method 14 days and 5 degrees. I do think we are seeing minor quakes along the pacific plates. This happens all the time, so unless we see a lot in the preslip region I don't think its what we are looking for.
So another answer to your question would be did the database predict another time for the tokai quake? Using Saros 114 and 140 it predicted the following date for an 8.3 tokai quake based off of the 1854 data. The prediction was for March 22nd 1999. It did not make another prediction until 2012.
07/08/2012 (8:17 pm)
@Sandy, I agree with you. We have not seen the pre-slip yet. We have about 90 days before I'd call this one a failed prediction. I still think Japan is in serious danger, but I have not seen enough of the events that would make me think its going to in the next couple of days.@Jeffery, yes my database over predicts. I have to account for the quake cycle, other wise it predicts a quake every 18 years when the same Saros returns. The same saros will produce a solar / lunar eclipse flip in about 13 years. So my database will repeat the prediction about every 12 to 18 years. That is enough time to produce another magnitude 5.0 or 6.0 in most quake prone regions.
I have plenty of failed predictions. I've also nailed quite a few correctly. I think I'm on to something, but I need to temper the predictions with an algorithm to calculate the stress build up for each region. With out a true understanding of how much stress is ready to move it will continue to predict quakes that don't happen. In this case we can all agree we have enough stress for the Tokai quake. So I'm confident that its either now or in 2017.
@Janelle, we are about to see this prediction become false. I'm buying another 90 or so days based the data used to predict the past tokai quakes. If it does not strike then this prediction is false. Usually I only give my method 14 days and 5 degrees. I do think we are seeing minor quakes along the pacific plates. This happens all the time, so unless we see a lot in the preslip region I don't think its what we are looking for.
So another answer to your question would be did the database predict another time for the tokai quake? Using Saros 114 and 140 it predicted the following date for an 8.3 tokai quake based off of the 1854 data. The prediction was for March 22nd 1999. It did not make another prediction until 2012.
dennis
EQ December 23, 1854
solar
eclipse 1854 Nov 20 09:56:58 7 -1795 140 H3 p- -0.5179 1.0144 49S 13E 59 57 01m07s
lunar
eclipse 1854-Nov-05 P 1.100 0.054 03:53 +28 05:45 +06 - - 06:13 +00 - - 06:40 -05 08:32 -23
EQ October 28, 1707
lunar
eclipse 1707-Oct-11 T 2.825 1.840 16:40 -08 17:37 +03 18:35 +15 19:25 +25 20:15 +34 21:13 +45 22:10 +54
solar
08807 1707 Oct 25 14:17:22 9 -3614 148 P t- -1.4161 0.2528 62S 151W 0
EQ February 3, 1605
solar
eclipse 1605 Apr 18 07:26:44 113 -4882 132 A p- -0.8918 0.9327 50S 90E 27 553 06m43s
lunar
eclipse 1605-Apr-04 P 1.947 0.986 02:53 +30 03:52 +19 - - 05:25 +02 - - 06:59 -17 07:58 -28
EQ September 11, 1498
solar
08308 1498 Jun 19 18:21:38 197 -6203 109 A -p -0.7466 0.9956 25S 92W 42 23 00m29s
08309 1498 Dec 13 05:15:08 197 -6197 114 T -n 0.4242 1.0174 2N 104E 65 66 01m50s
lunar
1498-Jul-03 P 1.892 0.887 22:09 +27 23:16 +31 - - 00:52 +30 - - 02:27 +22 03:34 +13
1498-Dec-29 N 0.891 -0.171 00:10 +78 - - - - 02:20 +57 - - - - 04:29 +31
EQ July 26, 1361
lunar
1361-May-20 N 0.964 -0.084 21:57 +28 - - - - 00:13 +33 - - - - 02:29 +22
solar
1343 Oct 19 06:39:25 405 -8116 113 A -n -0.2873 0.9247 29S 73E 73 296 09m12s
EQ December 11, 1096
solar
07355 1096 Aug 20 18:35:35 1093 -11173 130 Pb t- -1.5110 0.0743 61S 165W 0
07356 1097 Jan 16 11:07:06 1092 -11168 97 A -p -0.5420 0.9483 50S 37E 57 225 04m41s
lunar
1096-Aug-07 T 2.481 1.479 02:00 +30 03:00 +22 04:03 +12 04:49 +04 05:35 -05 06:38 -17 07:38 -29
1097-Jan-30 P 1.369 0.358 18:35 +15 19:55 +30 - - 20:59 +43 - - 22:04 +55 23:24 +66
EQ August 22, 887
solar
06869 0887 Apr 27 02:46:27 2275 -13762 91 A -p -0.4641 0.9664 10S 158E 62 135 03m50s
06870 0887 Oct 20 13:06:40 2271 -13756 96 T -n 0.4151 1.0461 10N 0W 65 167 03m59s
lunar
887-Nov-05 N 0.927 -0.161 00:06 +70 - - - - 02:22 +49 - - - - 04:38 +22
EQ November 26, 684
solar
06404 0684 Sep 15 00:16:17 3930 -16268 84 T -p 0.8140 1.0468 47N 134W 35 263 03m11s
lunar
684-Sep-29 P 1.903 0.812 16:35 -11 17:54 +04 - - 19:32 +24 - - 21:10 +43 22:29 +54
It seems to me that most are not directly linked with an eclipse - often there are a few months in between.
I used the following references:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T%C5%8Dkai_earthquakes
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/JLEX/JLEX-AS.html
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/JSEX/JSEX-AS.html
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE1401-1500.html