Japan Tokai Quake Predicted for late 2016 early 2017
by Britton LaRoche · 01/08/2009 (2:12 pm) · 1262 comments
Update Jan 2013: Quake Database Built and Tested! Results are Here:
Note: Our method for predicting earthquakes has failed for a Southern California earthquake in the Spring 2011 and for the Tokai earthquake in Japan, and for Istanbul in 2012. This method of predicting earthquakes is still just a theory at this point.
In spite of the setbacks over the past year, we have predicted several significant earthquakes (documented in this blog) using a lunar tidal model. An entire community of people have contributed in this blog. Together we watched earthquake patterns as we made predictions. The authors here have contributed by presenting new ideas and linked research. Together we have refined the model over time. We believe the next window for the Japan Tokai quake is now in late 2016 or early 2017.
The Tokai earthquake article quoted below is linked here: geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm
"The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 30 years.... The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2012, it has been 158 years and counting."
Utilizing the theory tha certain lunar and solar eclipse cycles create higher than normal tidal pressure in Japan, we were able to use this model to correctly account for and predict almost all of the past tokai quakes in Japan. See page 43 for the details. www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/43
Current Japan Tokai Predictions based on the Lunar Saros Eclipse Cycle 114 and the resulting tidal pressures.
In the past we were not able to pinpoint the exact location. Using the stress transfer algorithm developed by scientist Jeffrey King and his team we now believe we have a method of predicting both the time and the location. Watch the video here for an explanation.
The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
Actual
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original 2009 Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
Once the donations hit 1 million USD I will quit my full time job and dedicate myself to quake prediction. All I need is a dollar from one million people or a million dollars from one very generous billionaire. Maybe Bill Gates would be interested. ;)
View Stats
Note: Our method for predicting earthquakes has failed for a Southern California earthquake in the Spring 2011 and for the Tokai earthquake in Japan, and for Istanbul in 2012. This method of predicting earthquakes is still just a theory at this point.
In spite of the setbacks over the past year, we have predicted several significant earthquakes (documented in this blog) using a lunar tidal model. An entire community of people have contributed in this blog. Together we watched earthquake patterns as we made predictions. The authors here have contributed by presenting new ideas and linked research. Together we have refined the model over time. We believe the next window for the Japan Tokai quake is now in late 2016 or early 2017.
The Tokai earthquake article quoted below is linked here: geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm
"The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 30 years.... The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2012, it has been 158 years and counting."
Utilizing the theory tha certain lunar and solar eclipse cycles create higher than normal tidal pressure in Japan, we were able to use this model to correctly account for and predict almost all of the past tokai quakes in Japan. See page 43 for the details. www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/43
Current Japan Tokai Predictions based on the Lunar Saros Eclipse Cycle 114 and the resulting tidal pressures.
PREDICTED QUAKE_DATE ECLIPSE_DATE DAYS SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2016-11-19 1498-09-20 1498-12-13 -84 114 8.6 34 138.1 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA 2016-11-19 1498-09-20 1498-12-13 -84 114 7.5 33.5 135.2 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 2017-04-01 1854-12-24 1854-11-20 34 140 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN 2017-04-02 1854-12-24 1854-11-04 50 114 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN
In the past we were not able to pinpoint the exact location. Using the stress transfer algorithm developed by scientist Jeffrey King and his team we now believe we have a method of predicting both the time and the location. Watch the video here for an explanation.
The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
PREDICTED ORIGIN SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-08 1916-04-21 118 7.8 33 141 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
Actual
DATE SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-11 118 9.0 38.30 142.37 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original 2009 Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Magnitude 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
Quote:
Tidal forces may have contributed to triggering the devastating magnitude 9.0 Sumatra earthquake of 2004 and other large earthquakes in the region. Gravitational pull from the Sun and the Moon not only is responsible for ocean tides but also creates Earth tides, slight motions of the solid Earth (bulges and dips in the earth's crust and upper mantle) that can lead to stress buildup (or stress relief) along faults.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Quote:
doi:10.1029/2009GL041581
The frequency distribution of tidal phase angles in the pre-event period exhibited a peak near the angle where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault slip. This implies that the high correlation observed in the pre-seismic stage is not a stochastic chance but is likely a physical consequence of the tidal stress change.
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
Once the donations hit 1 million USD I will quit my full time job and dedicate myself to quake prediction. All I need is a dollar from one million people or a million dollars from one very generous billionaire. Maybe Bill Gates would be interested. ;)
#482
04/11/2011 (11:20 pm)
Congratulations Marilyn ...but...damn. I was hoping nothing would hit BC until possibly August, and comforted by Britton's earlier comment that you couldn't really predict when the 1700 Cascadia quake would come around again! The west coast would be devastated, not just BC, of course. It looks like our nightmare begins before this summer. :( 
#483
04/12/2011 (11:53 am)
This is amazing... You're really close do you have any ideas for increasing the accuracy?
#484
@Marilyn, You are correct. Great Job! I found the quake you are referring to here:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1700_Cascadia_earthquake
I think you are correct, and an Easter quake here in 2011 is a real possibility. Congrats. If this hits it will be hard to ignore by the scientific community. You will have a 100% accuracy on your quake predictions. I need to find more data to add to my database, this quake was not listed in the NGDC or USGS databases.
What interests me most is the size and type of quake. It fits with the massive quakes we have been seeing in the past seven years or so. I think we are seeing a major shift in the tectonic plates, globally.
I'm going to do some more research on this one. I think Marlyn might have hit "earthquake prediction gold." We need to dig into the quakes along that fault line. If we can establish a basic quake cycle that would be good.
Its been 311 years since that quake so a great deal of pressure has built up. The trick is to see how many large quakes have happened since then. The real method is to find yearly sediment layers in the rocks of the fault line of that region and count the cracks to determine the cycle.
After some reading I found it on the wiki edia site.
Hmmm, after reading this it looks like we may have 100-200 more years to go. I'd normally dismiss the possibility, but then lets look at the quakes in Hati, Chile, and Japan. This has to have put pressure in the North American plate, since the triple eclipse in the summer of 2009 all the others have shifted. Couple the shifting of the neighboring plates with the fact that we have another triple eclipse this summer. Marilyn has also found a key relationship with saros 118.
I'd still say its a possibility.
I'd say the probably has jumped from 37% to a little over 50% in light of all the other factors.
04/12/2011 (2:10 pm)
@Glenn, yeah I need more data in my database. The USGS and NGDC are missing quite a few important quakes. I also need to see what the hundred year or more quake cycle really is for each region.@Marilyn, You are correct. Great Job! I found the quake you are referring to here:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1700_Cascadia_earthquake
I think you are correct, and an Easter quake here in 2011 is a real possibility. Congrats. If this hits it will be hard to ignore by the scientific community. You will have a 100% accuracy on your quake predictions. I need to find more data to add to my database, this quake was not listed in the NGDC or USGS databases.
What interests me most is the size and type of quake. It fits with the massive quakes we have been seeing in the past seven years or so. I think we are seeing a major shift in the tectonic plates, globally.
I'm going to do some more research on this one. I think Marlyn might have hit "earthquake prediction gold." We need to dig into the quakes along that fault line. If we can establish a basic quake cycle that would be good.
Its been 311 years since that quake so a great deal of pressure has built up. The trick is to see how many large quakes have happened since then. The real method is to find yearly sediment layers in the rocks of the fault line of that region and count the cracks to determine the cycle.
After some reading I found it on the wiki edia site.
est. year interval years --------------------------------- 1700 AD - 1310 AD 390 810 AD 500 400 AD 410 170 BC 570 600 BC 430
Hmmm, after reading this it looks like we may have 100-200 more years to go. I'd normally dismiss the possibility, but then lets look at the quakes in Hati, Chile, and Japan. This has to have put pressure in the North American plate, since the triple eclipse in the summer of 2009 all the others have shifted. Couple the shifting of the neighboring plates with the fact that we have another triple eclipse this summer. Marilyn has also found a key relationship with saros 118.
I'd still say its a possibility.
Quote:
Recent findings conclude that the Cascadia Subduction zone is more complex and volatile than previously believed. Geologists predict a 37 percent chance of a M8.2+ event in the next 50 years, and a 10 to 15 percent chance that the entire Cascadia Subduction will rupture with a M9+ event within the same time frame.[6] Geologists have also determined the Pacific Northwest is not prepared for such a colossal quake. The tsunami produced could reach heights of 80 to 100 feet (24 to 30 m).[7]
I'd say the probably has jumped from 37% to a little over 50% in light of all the other factors.
#485
"Catalog of Damaging Earthquakes in the World," which contains more than 10,000 destructive earthquakes in the world from 3000 B.C. Compiled by Dr. Tokuji Utsu, Professor Emeritus of Tokyo University.
link: iisee.kenken.go.jp/utsu/index_eng.html
04/12/2011 (5:46 pm)
again... in case you missed this part of my earlier post..."Catalog of Damaging Earthquakes in the World," which contains more than 10,000 destructive earthquakes in the world from 3000 B.C. Compiled by Dr. Tokuji Utsu, Professor Emeritus of Tokyo University.
link: iisee.kenken.go.jp/utsu/index_eng.html
#486
Thanks for the kudos! Time will tell, eh? That subduction fault right off the coast of B.C. Washington and Oregon gives many of us nightmares.
However, I agree with you, I don’t think we’re due for the BIG ONE (mag 9+) in the PNW for another 200 years or so. I’ve read that the cycle is every 500 years, and your table of previous quakes shows similar data.
Incidently, I looked at all the LUNAR and SOLAR eclipse saros cycles right around the year 2240 (which happens to coincide with the end of the 6000-year Hebrew calendar) and it’s quite frightening. I have no doubt that an earthquake of apocalyptic proportions will occur here in the PNW at that time, and also everywhere around the Pacific Rim of Fire. Take a look!
If we do experience an Easter quake later this month, I would expect it to be of a lesser magnitude. Of course, I hope I’m wrong in my prediction.
One caveat: I’ve been watching the USGS maps of seismic activity in this area. If we are due to have a quake, shouldn’t we see some quakes of a lesser magnitude occurring right now?
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Maps/US10/42.52.-130.-120.php
Also, Jim Berkland has discovered a connection between beached whales and earthquake activity (something to do with shifting magnetic fields). I haven’t heard about any beached pods of whales in Wash, Ore, and B.C. this month. (Has anyone?)
Well, better to be prepared than scared! Thanks to your research, we have our earthquake preparedness kit on hand, with extra food and water. Thanks again, Britton.
~Marilyn
04/13/2011 (1:52 am)
Hi Britton,Thanks for the kudos! Time will tell, eh? That subduction fault right off the coast of B.C. Washington and Oregon gives many of us nightmares.
However, I agree with you, I don’t think we’re due for the BIG ONE (mag 9+) in the PNW for another 200 years or so. I’ve read that the cycle is every 500 years, and your table of previous quakes shows similar data.
Incidently, I looked at all the LUNAR and SOLAR eclipse saros cycles right around the year 2240 (which happens to coincide with the end of the 6000-year Hebrew calendar) and it’s quite frightening. I have no doubt that an earthquake of apocalyptic proportions will occur here in the PNW at that time, and also everywhere around the Pacific Rim of Fire. Take a look!
If we do experience an Easter quake later this month, I would expect it to be of a lesser magnitude. Of course, I hope I’m wrong in my prediction.
One caveat: I’ve been watching the USGS maps of seismic activity in this area. If we are due to have a quake, shouldn’t we see some quakes of a lesser magnitude occurring right now?
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Maps/US10/42.52.-130.-120.php
Also, Jim Berkland has discovered a connection between beached whales and earthquake activity (something to do with shifting magnetic fields). I haven’t heard about any beached pods of whales in Wash, Ore, and B.C. this month. (Has anyone?)
Well, better to be prepared than scared! Thanks to your research, we have our earthquake preparedness kit on hand, with extra food and water. Thanks again, Britton.
~Marilyn
#487
____________________________________________________
C 1303 9 17 0020L 36.3 111.7 - 8 China:Shanxi [Hongdong,Zhaocheng earthquake](I=11)
C 1411 9 29 - 30.1 90.5 - 8 China:Ｘｉzang(Tibet) (I=10-11)(early morning)??fault? landslide? foreshock at night on 28/9
C 1556 1 23 0 0L 34.5 109.7 - 8.3 China:Shanxi [Hua xian earthquake] (I=11)
C 1654 7 21 - 34.3 105.5 - 8 China:Gansu[Tianshui earthquake](I=11)night
C 1668 7 25 2000L 34.8 118.5 - 8.5 China:Shandong[＿cheng・＿xian earthquake](I>=11)
C 1679 9 2 1100L 40 117 - 8 China:Hebei[Sanhe・Pinggu　earthquake](I=11) fault
? G 1695 5 13 - 36 111.5 - 8 China(possibly error of 18/5) C 1739 1 3 1900L 38.8 106.5 - 8 China:Ningxia[Pingluo・Yinchuan earthquake](I=10+) fault
C 1812 3 8 2100L 43.7 83.5 - 8 China:Xinjiang(Uyghur)[Yining earthquake](I=11) fault
C 1833 8 26 1700L 28.3 85.5 - 8 China:Xizang(Tibet)/Nepal(I>=10)
C 1833 9 6 1000L 25 103 - 8 China:Yunnan[Haoming earthquake](I>=10)
C 1879 7 1 0400L 33.2 104.7 - 8 China:Gansu[Wudu earthquake ](I=11)
+ C 1902 8 22 1100L 39.9 76.2 - 8.3 China:Xinjiang(Uyghur)[Atushi earthquake ](I>10)7.7S
C 1920 6 5 1221L 23.5 122.7 - 8 China:Taiwan[Hualian earthquake ] 8.0S
C 1920 12 16 2005L 36.7 104.9 - 8.5 China:Ningxia[Haiyuan earthquake ](I=12)fault 8.6S
GR 1927 5 22 2232U 37.6 102.6 - 8 China:Nan-Shan Province D=40912/200 thousand
C 1927 5 23 0632L 37.7 102.2 - 8 China:Gansu[Gulang earthquake ](I=11)7.9S
G 1931 8 10 1843U 47.1 89.8 - 8 China:N. Xinjiang(possibly the same as 2118U/518U)
C 1931 8 11 0518L 47.1 89.8 - 8 China:Xinjiang(Uyghur)[Fuyun earthquake ](I=11) fau C 1950 8 15 2209L 28.4 96.7 - 8.6 China:Xizang(Tibet)[Chayu earthquake](I=11) 8.6SW
C 1951 11 18 1735L 31.1 91.4 - 8 China:Xizang(Tibet)[Dangxiong earthquake ] fault 8.0S
CT 1972 1 25 1006L 22.6 122.3 n 8 T China:East side of Taiwan offshore 7.4S
- G 1978 7 24 2354U 22.14 121.44 18 8 China:Taiwan(Taiwan)(possibly error of M) 5.4S
S 2001 11 14 0926U 35.95 90.54 10 8 China:Xizang(Tibet)ï½¥Qinghai[Kokoxili EQ]fault 7.8W
S 2008 5 12 0628U 31 103.32 19 8.1 \China:Sichuan landslides( 7.9W
04/13/2011 (4:39 am)
this is just Chinas 8+ size quakes over history from that web site I listed above.____________________________________________________
C 1303 9 17 0020L 36.3 111.7 - 8 China:Shanxi [Hongdong,Zhaocheng earthquake](I=11)
C 1411 9 29 - 30.1 90.5 - 8 China:Ｘｉzang(Tibet) (I=10-11)(early morning)??fault? landslide? foreshock at night on 28/9
C 1556 1 23 0 0L 34.5 109.7 - 8.3 China:Shanxi [Hua xian earthquake] (I=11)
C 1654 7 21 - 34.3 105.5 - 8 China:Gansu[Tianshui earthquake](I=11)night
C 1668 7 25 2000L 34.8 118.5 - 8.5 China:Shandong[＿cheng・＿xian earthquake](I>=11)
C 1679 9 2 1100L 40 117 - 8 China:Hebei[Sanhe・Pinggu　earthquake](I=11) fault
? G 1695 5 13 - 36 111.5 - 8 China(possibly error of 18/5) C 1739 1 3 1900L 38.8 106.5 - 8 China:Ningxia[Pingluo・Yinchuan earthquake](I=10+) fault
C 1812 3 8 2100L 43.7 83.5 - 8 China:Xinjiang(Uyghur)[Yining earthquake](I=11) fault
C 1833 8 26 1700L 28.3 85.5 - 8 China:Xizang(Tibet)/Nepal(I>=10)
C 1833 9 6 1000L 25 103 - 8 China:Yunnan[Haoming earthquake](I>=10)
C 1879 7 1 0400L 33.2 104.7 - 8 China:Gansu[Wudu earthquake ](I=11)
+ C 1902 8 22 1100L 39.9 76.2 - 8.3 China:Xinjiang(Uyghur)[Atushi earthquake ](I>10)7.7S
C 1920 6 5 1221L 23.5 122.7 - 8 China:Taiwan[Hualian earthquake ] 8.0S
C 1920 12 16 2005L 36.7 104.9 - 8.5 China:Ningxia[Haiyuan earthquake ](I=12)fault 8.6S
GR 1927 5 22 2232U 37.6 102.6 - 8 China:Nan-Shan Province D=40912/200 thousand
C 1927 5 23 0632L 37.7 102.2 - 8 China:Gansu[Gulang earthquake ](I=11)7.9S
G 1931 8 10 1843U 47.1 89.8 - 8 China:N. Xinjiang(possibly the same as 2118U/518U)
C 1931 8 11 0518L 47.1 89.8 - 8 China:Xinjiang(Uyghur)[Fuyun earthquake ](I=11) fau C 1950 8 15 2209L 28.4 96.7 - 8.6 China:Xizang(Tibet)[Chayu earthquake](I=11) 8.6SW
C 1951 11 18 1735L 31.1 91.4 - 8 China:Xizang(Tibet)[Dangxiong earthquake ] fault 8.0S
CT 1972 1 25 1006L 22.6 122.3 n 8 T China:East side of Taiwan offshore 7.4S
- G 1978 7 24 2354U 22.14 121.44 18 8 China:Taiwan(Taiwan)(possibly error of M) 5.4S
S 2001 11 14 0926U 35.95 90.54 10 8 China:Xizang(Tibet)ï½¥Qinghai[Kokoxili EQ]fault 7.8W
S 2008 5 12 0628U 31 103.32 19 8.1 \China:Sichuan landslides( 7.9W
#488
Thanks for the link. I did a search and found it does contain the 1700 quake. I'll be loading in that data over the next few weeks.
@Marilyn,
I think we will have a quake there near easter. Probably above a 6.0. Once I get the data loaded from Jana's website I'll run the query. That website should help fill in some blanks in my data, which will be important for this summers prediction. I really think the sustained gravitational forces from this summer's tripple eclipse will mark the beginning of several very large destructive quakes.
04/13/2011 (6:03 pm)
@Jana,Thanks for the link. I did a search and found it does contain the 1700 quake. I'll be loading in that data over the next few weeks.
@Marilyn,
I think we will have a quake there near easter. Probably above a 6.0. Once I get the data loaded from Jana's website I'll run the query. That website should help fill in some blanks in my data, which will be important for this summers prediction. I really think the sustained gravitational forces from this summer's tripple eclipse will mark the beginning of several very large destructive quakes.
#489
"6.1-6.9 Can be destructive in areas up to about 100 kilometers across where people live."
quote from here: http://skywalker.cochise.edu/wellerr/students/measure-quake/paper.htm
100 km obviously doesn't cover the whole Cascadia zone, so I'm confused. I guess I'm asking if it might be possible to narrow down where the quake will originate, so we can figure out 100 km from there, and assume the rest of the coast would feel less severe tremors/damage.
Britton, you've been great at pinpointing latitude and longitude, so I hope you can load your new data and give us a better idea soon, hopefully before April 24th...
Marilyn, I've also wondered whether there would be signs like smaller quakes (there have been a few small quakes offshore B.C. but I don't know if it's significant) and whale beachings. I couldn't find recent stories of beachings around here, but maybe my google skills are lacking. :)
04/13/2011 (8:03 pm)
So, just to clarify, you guys believe there'll be a quake near Easter, affecting the entire Cascadia Subduction zone, but it probably won't be The Really Big One yet (meaning 8.0 - 9.0 right?) Forgive what might be a stupid question - I'm new to learning about earthquakes, not an expert. But I wonder if it's therefore 6.0 - 7.0 instead, can it really affect such a large area of the west coast? (B.C., California, Washington, etc.) I thought only an 8-9 magnitude would affect the whole Cascadia zone? Or can even a 6-7 quake anywhere on the zone affect the whole zone equally? Meaning if it originates in California, for instance, one would assume Washington or B.C. would feel less than a 6-7, or am I wrong?"6.1-6.9 Can be destructive in areas up to about 100 kilometers across where people live."
quote from here: http://skywalker.cochise.edu/wellerr/students/measure-quake/paper.htm
100 km obviously doesn't cover the whole Cascadia zone, so I'm confused. I guess I'm asking if it might be possible to narrow down where the quake will originate, so we can figure out 100 km from there, and assume the rest of the coast would feel less severe tremors/damage.
Britton, you've been great at pinpointing latitude and longitude, so I hope you can load your new data and give us a better idea soon, hopefully before April 24th...
Marilyn, I've also wondered whether there would be signs like smaller quakes (there have been a few small quakes offshore B.C. but I don't know if it's significant) and whale beachings. I couldn't find recent stories of beachings around here, but maybe my google skills are lacking. :)
#490
I believe there are 82 active saros series individually occurring over an 18 year period, right?
Counting back 18 years to 1993, I found the same four eclipse saros (118, 130, 123, 135) as we have in 2011. (Of course, this year we have an additional SOLAR eclipse on July 01, saros 156, giving us a triple eclipse this summer.)
Turns out there were TWO earthquakes in Oregon in 1993. Mag 5.6 on Mar. 25 and mag 7.0 on Sept. 20. I did the math, and Oregon should have had a quake on April 4, 2011, but they didn't. So my prediction success rate is now minus one. I won't venture to predict when a second Oregon quake might occur this year... at least not publicly!
I understand you're still developing your theory, Britton, and not all predicted quakes actually occur. Bottom line, that's a very good thing.
Thanks again.
~Marilyn
P.S. I will note that on April 3, 2011 Indonesia was hit by a 6.7 mag quake. On April 4, 2011 India had a 5.7 mag quake. Maybe that part of the world got rocked instead.
This link shows all the mag. 7.0 quakes in the world in 1993. Note that there were NONE on the west coast of North America.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/year/1993/1993_stats.php
04/13/2011 (10:05 pm)
Britton, I believe there are 82 active saros series individually occurring over an 18 year period, right?
Counting back 18 years to 1993, I found the same four eclipse saros (118, 130, 123, 135) as we have in 2011. (Of course, this year we have an additional SOLAR eclipse on July 01, saros 156, giving us a triple eclipse this summer.)
Turns out there were TWO earthquakes in Oregon in 1993. Mag 5.6 on Mar. 25 and mag 7.0 on Sept. 20. I did the math, and Oregon should have had a quake on April 4, 2011, but they didn't. So my prediction success rate is now minus one. I won't venture to predict when a second Oregon quake might occur this year... at least not publicly!
I understand you're still developing your theory, Britton, and not all predicted quakes actually occur. Bottom line, that's a very good thing.
Thanks again.
~Marilyn
P.S. I will note that on April 3, 2011 Indonesia was hit by a 6.7 mag quake. On April 4, 2011 India had a 5.7 mag quake. Maybe that part of the world got rocked instead.
This link shows all the mag. 7.0 quakes in the world in 1993. Note that there were NONE on the west coast of North America.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/year/1993/1993_stats.php
#491
04/13/2011 (10:11 pm)
P.P.S. Just realized the mag 7.0 quake in ORE on Sept. 20, 1993 doesn't show up on that USGS world quake map. Hmmmm.
#492
1906 4/18 0512L 37.7 -122.5 m 8.3 USA:[San Francisco EQ](Calif)D=3 7.8S
04/14/2011 (7:48 am)
1700 1/26 m 9 USA:Oregon/Washington(Cascadia　subduction1906 4/18 0512L 37.7 -122.5 m 8.3 USA:[San Francisco EQ](Calif)D=3 7.8S
#493
I figured out on that website that if you put: -1300 to 0 as the date range and the size at 6 and nothing else- it spits out all quakes from 6.0 on up world wide. Same with the year 0 to 1000, then 1000-1500. that way you don't get the "too many to list" result.
I'm intrigued by the patterns of the months in which quakes occur. from the years -2150 to 0 there were 178 quakes size 6.0 to 8. There was only one m8. Here's the breakdown by month- note November has 22.
04/14/2011 (10:49 am)
BrittonI figured out on that website that if you put: -1300 to 0 as the date range and the size at 6 and nothing else- it spits out all quakes from 6.0 on up world wide. Same with the year 0 to 1000, then 1000-1500. that way you don't get the "too many to list" result.
I'm intrigued by the patterns of the months in which quakes occur. from the years -2150 to 0 there were 178 quakes size 6.0 to 8. There was only one m8. Here's the breakdown by month- note November has 22.
#494
Yeah you are correct. I think it has to do with the angular momentum of the earth as it enters the ascending node in November toward perihelion (the closest earth gets to the sun in orbit).
Also the simple play of Newtonian physics (newton's law of inertia) the earth wants to travel in a straight line. The sun's gravitation pull is yanking it in. Keplers law says that the orbit of a planet will cross equal area in equal time. The earth speeds up in orbit as it approaches the sun at one end of the focus of an elliptical orbit.
I think this causes greater gravitational stress on the planet in November. I think this is why we have more quakes in this month.
Basically we have a spinning ball entering a tight curve and picking up speed in November. Imagine a ball in a car entering a tight curve to the left. The ball will roll toward the right side of the car away from the turn. The ball wishes to continue in a straight line.
I'm suggesting the entire liquid planet earth is doing the same thing in November, add a spin (earth rotation) and a syzygy (straight line pull of the sun and moon) on the earth and well, you have a lot of competing gravitational, inertial and angular momentum forces at work. Or in simpler terms a lot of pull away from the turn. This probably distorts the earths surface a bit more than normal, making the tectonic plates more likely to slip violently.
@Marylin, yeah if we had a 7.0 in Oregon in 1993, then maybe a smaller quake is in order. Not enough time to build up a lot of pressure. It seems the older the quake the more likely it is to repeat.
@Serena, oddly enough I can not find any latitude / longitude information for the Jan 26th 1700 quake. The only reason we know it happened is based on Japanese records of a Tsunami. Poor data collection is a problem. In general the quake is believed to have imacted the Juan Del Fuca Plate. I'm not too worried as we have not had any recent records of corresponding magnetic disturbances in that area.
Also as Marylin pointed out we normally have a build up of smaller earthquakes before the big ones hit. Quakes do cluster together. Its really not a single event, its a series of small movements in the earth's crust as it slowly slides along.
So far we have not seen any magnetic disturbances (no Marine beachings) and no smaller quakes in that area. Aside from this one:
Magnitude 4.4 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION
Sunday, March 20, 2011 at 04:20:34 UTC
If we have a few more I'd start to worry.
04/14/2011 (11:25 am)
@Janna,Yeah you are correct. I think it has to do with the angular momentum of the earth as it enters the ascending node in November toward perihelion (the closest earth gets to the sun in orbit).
Also the simple play of Newtonian physics (newton's law of inertia) the earth wants to travel in a straight line. The sun's gravitation pull is yanking it in. Keplers law says that the orbit of a planet will cross equal area in equal time. The earth speeds up in orbit as it approaches the sun at one end of the focus of an elliptical orbit.
I think this causes greater gravitational stress on the planet in November. I think this is why we have more quakes in this month.
Basically we have a spinning ball entering a tight curve and picking up speed in November. Imagine a ball in a car entering a tight curve to the left. The ball will roll toward the right side of the car away from the turn. The ball wishes to continue in a straight line.
I'm suggesting the entire liquid planet earth is doing the same thing in November, add a spin (earth rotation) and a syzygy (straight line pull of the sun and moon) on the earth and well, you have a lot of competing gravitational, inertial and angular momentum forces at work. Or in simpler terms a lot of pull away from the turn. This probably distorts the earths surface a bit more than normal, making the tectonic plates more likely to slip violently.
@Marylin, yeah if we had a 7.0 in Oregon in 1993, then maybe a smaller quake is in order. Not enough time to build up a lot of pressure. It seems the older the quake the more likely it is to repeat.
@Serena, oddly enough I can not find any latitude / longitude information for the Jan 26th 1700 quake. The only reason we know it happened is based on Japanese records of a Tsunami. Poor data collection is a problem. In general the quake is believed to have imacted the Juan Del Fuca Plate. I'm not too worried as we have not had any recent records of corresponding magnetic disturbances in that area.
Also as Marylin pointed out we normally have a build up of smaller earthquakes before the big ones hit. Quakes do cluster together. Its really not a single event, its a series of small movements in the earth's crust as it slowly slides along.
So far we have not seen any magnetic disturbances (no Marine beachings) and no smaller quakes in that area. Aside from this one:
Magnitude 4.4 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION
Sunday, March 20, 2011 at 04:20:34 UTC
If we have a few more I'd start to worry.
#495
I think if a mag 6.0 or greater were to occur in the PNW, it would be most *likely* to happen on or around Easter, April 24, 2011. But it won’t *necessarily* occur, despite the matching 118 saros. As you said, there probably hasn’t been enough time for the pressure to build up since the last quake(s).
That said, I’m convinced that your general theories are correct. Earthquakes are NOT unpredictable, random events. Instead, they appear to be connected to the 82 active eclipse saros series which individually reoccur over 18 year periods (per NASA).
I’ve looked at the periodicity of some larger quakes with matching eclipse saros, and they do reoccur after a period of years which is divisible by 18.
Perhaps another way to predict a quake in a specific area is to find two earthquakes (preferably more) with identical saros, calculate the reoccurring period between them, and then project forward to the next likely year. (And then calculate the specific date.) Maybe you’re already doing this. Your thoughts?
Examples:
PNW EQ (Olympia/Seattle) Apr 29, 1965. Mag 6.5 (Saros: 127, 139, 132, 144)
PNW EQ (Olympia/Seattle) Feb 28, 2001. Mag 6.8 (Saros 127, 139, 132, 144)
2001 – 1965 = 36 years (2 x 18)
Possible EQ Prediction: 2001 + 36 = 2037
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Israel EQ Jan. 1, 1837. Mag 7.0 (Saros 140, 107, 119, 145, 124)
Israel EQ July 16, 1927. Mag 6.4 (Saros 140, 119, 145, 124)
1927 – 1837 = 90 years (5 x 18)
Possible EQ Prediction: 1927 + 90 = 2017
~Marilyn
04/14/2011 (10:50 pm)
Britton, again I have to agree…. I think if a mag 6.0 or greater were to occur in the PNW, it would be most *likely* to happen on or around Easter, April 24, 2011. But it won’t *necessarily* occur, despite the matching 118 saros. As you said, there probably hasn’t been enough time for the pressure to build up since the last quake(s).
That said, I’m convinced that your general theories are correct. Earthquakes are NOT unpredictable, random events. Instead, they appear to be connected to the 82 active eclipse saros series which individually reoccur over 18 year periods (per NASA).
I’ve looked at the periodicity of some larger quakes with matching eclipse saros, and they do reoccur after a period of years which is divisible by 18.
Perhaps another way to predict a quake in a specific area is to find two earthquakes (preferably more) with identical saros, calculate the reoccurring period between them, and then project forward to the next likely year. (And then calculate the specific date.) Maybe you’re already doing this. Your thoughts?
Examples:
PNW EQ (Olympia/Seattle) Apr 29, 1965. Mag 6.5 (Saros: 127, 139, 132, 144)
PNW EQ (Olympia/Seattle) Feb 28, 2001. Mag 6.8 (Saros 127, 139, 132, 144)
2001 – 1965 = 36 years (2 x 18)
Possible EQ Prediction: 2001 + 36 = 2037
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Israel EQ Jan. 1, 1837. Mag 7.0 (Saros 140, 107, 119, 145, 124)
Israel EQ July 16, 1927. Mag 6.4 (Saros 140, 119, 145, 124)
1927 – 1837 = 90 years (5 x 18)
Possible EQ Prediction: 1927 + 90 = 2017
~Marilyn
#496
Yes. The basic idea is to overlay the saros with the regions quake cycle. We also have to take into account the solar / lunar eclipse flip, so its not always an 18 year cycle. But your basic premise is exactly what I'm thinking. I'd also like to look at the "super quake cycle." The quakes that build pressure for serveral hundred years.
Even with these quake cycles mapped to the saros, the quake may skip a cycle so it might never be 100% certain. None the less I think we have identified two of the most predictable patterns (and two important independent variables) in determining when and where we will have an earthquake.
04/15/2011 (9:47 am)
@Marilyn, Yes. The basic idea is to overlay the saros with the regions quake cycle. We also have to take into account the solar / lunar eclipse flip, so its not always an 18 year cycle. But your basic premise is exactly what I'm thinking. I'd also like to look at the "super quake cycle." The quakes that build pressure for serveral hundred years.
Even with these quake cycles mapped to the saros, the quake may skip a cycle so it might never be 100% certain. None the less I think we have identified two of the most predictable patterns (and two important independent variables) in determining when and where we will have an earthquake.
#497
Magnitude 3.6
Date-Time Sunday, April 10, 2011 at 16:21:57 (UTC) - Coordinated Universal Time
Sunday, April 10, 2011 at 09:21:57 AM local time at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 40.37N 125.42W
Depth 5 kilometers
Region OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
Distances 110 km (68 miles) WSW of Fortuna, California
04/18/2011 (5:12 pm)
Another jitter along the Juan del fuca plate. Missed it last week. Perhaps Marilyn's prediction is getting more steam. So to speak. This one is at the bottom, the last one on March 20th was at the very top.Magnitude 3.6
Date-Time Sunday, April 10, 2011 at 16:21:57 (UTC) - Coordinated Universal Time
Sunday, April 10, 2011 at 09:21:57 AM local time at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 40.37N 125.42W
Depth 5 kilometers
Region OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
Distances 110 km (68 miles) WSW of Fortuna, California
#498
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Maps/degree10/235_40.php
The "Northridge" mag 6.9 earthquake hit California on Jan. 17, 1994. (Anyone remember?) Looking at the NASA site, the nearest eclipse was LUNAR--saros 135--on Nov. 29.
This year, we have another LUNAR eclipse--saros 135--on Dec. 10, 2011. There probably hasn't been enough time for pressure to build up in the plates, but if CA was to have a similar EQ, it would probably hit on or near Jan. 29, 2012. (Right, Britton?)
Of the major quakes in California--1857 (mag. 7.9) 1906 (mag 7.9 - 8.2) 1989 (mag 7.1) 1994 (mag 6.9)--I don't find any other matching eclipse saros for 2011-2012, do you?
Therefore, it doesn't seem likely that California will suffer a big quake in the near future, unless I've missed one.
BTW, the famous San Francisco EQ (mag +7.9) that occurred on April 18, 1906 appears to be connected to the LUNAR eclipse that year on Feb. 09--saros 122.
I note that the same LUNAR saros series (122, 127) will be repeating again in 2014. Seems like there's some chance of a major San Francisco quake then, since 108 years will have passed.
Your thoughts?
~Marilyn
04/18/2011 (11:40 pm)
Interesting, Britton. I missed that one too. Yes, now I see it off the coast, parallel to Eureka and Redding CA.http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Maps/degree10/235_40.php
The "Northridge" mag 6.9 earthquake hit California on Jan. 17, 1994. (Anyone remember?) Looking at the NASA site, the nearest eclipse was LUNAR--saros 135--on Nov. 29.
This year, we have another LUNAR eclipse--saros 135--on Dec. 10, 2011. There probably hasn't been enough time for pressure to build up in the plates, but if CA was to have a similar EQ, it would probably hit on or near Jan. 29, 2012. (Right, Britton?)
Of the major quakes in California--1857 (mag. 7.9) 1906 (mag 7.9 - 8.2) 1989 (mag 7.1) 1994 (mag 6.9)--I don't find any other matching eclipse saros for 2011-2012, do you?
Therefore, it doesn't seem likely that California will suffer a big quake in the near future, unless I've missed one.
BTW, the famous San Francisco EQ (mag +7.9) that occurred on April 18, 1906 appears to be connected to the LUNAR eclipse that year on Feb. 09--saros 122.
I note that the same LUNAR saros series (122, 127) will be repeating again in 2014. Seems like there's some chance of a major San Francisco quake then, since 108 years will have passed.
Your thoughts?
~Marilyn
#499
Yep, my guess is its only been about 18 years so its not likely, but if it did hit Jan 29th 2012 is the likely date.
I'd agree except for two possibilities. The first is your 1700 quake. The Juan Del Fuca plate extends to Northern CA. The second is the 1812 quake off the coast of Santa Barbara. We don't know the exact location of the 1700 quake ... so, I'll mark it with the location of the past two quakes this we listed in that region. Here are two possible California quakes.
The other possibility... somewhere between these two I'd expect if it does hit.
This is where the 1812 tsunami originated from. If it happens again we may have a tsunami big enough to go over the 25 foot retaining wall of the San Onofre Nuclear Power Plant, near San Clemente.
We don't have any magnetic disturbances that I can see and just a few small quakes in this area. So california may be safe from the April predictions. We will find out in just a few days.
Whoops! Spoke too soon! We did have a recent beaching in the area. This is a sign of a magnetic disturbance. Its a bit south of Santa Barbara. If we see more I'd be a bit more alarmed. Usually with a big quake like the Sendai quake you get a great number of beached whales and dolphins.
articles.ocregister.com/2011-04-17/news/29445037_1_beached-dolphin-newport-beach...
April 17, 2011|BY CINDY CARCAMO
www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2008JA013932.shtml
www.nature.com/nature/journal/v203/n4944/abs/203508b0.html
I'm holding off on the summer predictions as I refine my method. But mark my words I still think we are do for a Major North American quake in the next 18 months.
04/19/2011 (1:41 pm)
@Marilyn,Quote:This year, we have another LUNAR eclipse--saros 135--on Dec. 10, 2011. There probably hasn't been enough time for pressure to build up in the plates, but if CA was to have a similar EQ, it would probably hit on or near Jan. 29, 2012. (Right, Britton?)
Yep, my guess is its only been about 18 years so its not likely, but if it did hit Jan 29th 2012 is the likely date.
Quote:
Therefore, it doesn't seem likely that California will suffer a big quake in the near future, unless I've missed one.
I'd agree except for two possibilities. The first is your 1700 quake. The Juan Del Fuca plate extends to Northern CA. The second is the 1812 quake off the coast of Santa Barbara. We don't know the exact location of the 1700 quake ... so, I'll mark it with the location of the past two quakes this we listed in that region. Here are two possible California quakes.
PREDICTED ORIGIN SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-04-21 1812-12-21 118 7.1 34.2 -119.9 CALIFORNIA: PURISIMA 2011-04-24 1700-01-26 118 8.0 40.3 -125.4 OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
The other possibility... somewhere between these two I'd expect if it does hit.
PREDICTED ORIGIN SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-04-21 1812-12-21 118 7.1 34.2 -119.9 CALIFORNIA: PURISIMA 2011-04-24 1700-01-26 118 8.0 49.6 -128.6 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA
This is where the 1812 tsunami originated from. If it happens again we may have a tsunami big enough to go over the 25 foot retaining wall of the San Onofre Nuclear Power Plant, near San Clemente.
We don't have any magnetic disturbances that I can see and just a few small quakes in this area. So california may be safe from the April predictions. We will find out in just a few days.
Whoops! Spoke too soon! We did have a recent beaching in the area. This is a sign of a magnetic disturbance. Its a bit south of Santa Barbara. If we see more I'd be a bit more alarmed. Usually with a big quake like the Sendai quake you get a great number of beached whales and dolphins.
articles.ocregister.com/2011-04-17/news/29445037_1_beached-dolphin-newport-beach...
April 17, 2011|BY CINDY CARCAMO
Quote:
A dolphin beached itself before it died at Newport Beach on Sunday afternoon, said Mike Teague, animal control officer for the city of Newport Beach.
At about 2:30 p.m. officials received a call about a live dolphin near 15th Street, he said.
A crowd tried to push it back into the water but the dolphin died before lifeguards arrived. They said there wasn't any apparent trauma to the estimated 250-pound dolphin, Teague said.
www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2008JA013932.shtml
www.nature.com/nature/journal/v203/n4944/abs/203508b0.html
I'm holding off on the summer predictions as I refine my method. But mark my words I still think we are do for a Major North American quake in the next 18 months.
#500
Not sure if we have a real magnetic disturbance or a side effect from pollution, or both.
Did Biotoxin Kill Dolphins Found in Newport Beach?
coronadelmar.patch.com/articles/did-biotoxin-kill-dolphins
By Luke Roney April 19th 1:26pm
Five Stingray Wounds Reported At Big Corona Beach
www.coronadelmartoday.com/19501/home/five-stingray-wounds-reported-at-big-corona...
posted: April 18th, 2011 11:45 am | 2Comments
belmontshore.patch.com/articles/ailing-sea-lions-washing-ashore-in-south-bay
More than 40 sick sea lions have been recovered in the past 12 days.
By Philip Friedman | Email the author | April 12, 2011
So... I'm trying to see what the field strength is in real time and if it is shifting. I found this and think its a good start:
www.magnetic-declination.com/
O'Neals California Real Time Magnetic Data.
04/19/2011 (5:45 pm)
Here we go! I am seeing more than one beaching, and evidence of a possible magnetic disturbance near Santa Barbara, and Newport Beach. The question is is this part of the poisoning from Domoic acid? Domoic acid is a naturally occurring biotoxin found in algae blooms off the California coast.Not sure if we have a real magnetic disturbance or a side effect from pollution, or both.
Did Biotoxin Kill Dolphins Found in Newport Beach?
coronadelmar.patch.com/articles/did-biotoxin-kill-dolphins
By Luke Roney April 19th 1:26pm
Quote:
Samples taken during necropsies performed on the the animals have been sent to a lab for confirmation. Results are due Thursday.
Experts believe a biotoxin found in coastal algae blooms killed two common dolphins that came ashore in Newport Beach over the weekend.
Samples taken during necropsies performed on the animals at the Pacific Marine Mammal Center in Laguna Beach have been sent to a lab in Los Angeles for confirmation, said Michele Hunter, director of operations and animal care for the center. The results are expected by Thursday, she said.
Five Stingray Wounds Reported At Big Corona Beach
www.coronadelmartoday.com/19501/home/five-stingray-wounds-reported-at-big-corona...
posted: April 18th, 2011 11:45 am | 2Comments
Quote:Ailing Sea Lions Wash Ashore in South Bay
Outstanding weather on Saturday drew 85,000 people to Newport Beach beaches, keeping lifeguards busy even as the weather turned foggy on Sunday in a weekend with "very divergent weather," said Newport Beach Lifeguard Battalion Chief Jim Turner.
Additional seasonal employees were called to work on Saturday as crowds headed to the beaches, Turner said. Lifeguards made 23 rescues, took 515 preventative actions, and responded to 25 First Aid calls, including treating five stingray wounds at Big Corona State Beach, Turner said. Lifeguards also gave medical aid after a skimboard accident at 32 Street.
...
The sun never appeared along the coast, but lifeguards still recorded a few rescues, a dozen near rescues and "quite a few preventative actions," he said. There also were many First Aid calls and two dolphins who beached themselves on 15 and 61 streets. Both animals died after a few minutes.
belmontshore.patch.com/articles/ailing-sea-lions-washing-ashore-in-south-bay
More than 40 sick sea lions have been recovered in the past 12 days.
By Philip Friedman | Email the author | April 12, 2011
Quote:
Wallerstein said 44 sea lions suffering from domoic acid poisoning have been rescued in the past 12 days. Most of the rescued sea lions have come from the greater South Bay area and many are "gravely ill," he said.
"The alarming thing about this year is the critical state in which we are finding the sea lions," he said. "In years past, when we found sick sea lions, they were in much better shape, as the toxin was just taking effect. This year, the animals have been gravely ill, most in a critical state."
Domoic acid is a naturally occurring biotoxin found in algae blooms off the California coast. It is caused in part from fertilizers, industrial waste and other pollutants that wash out to sea. It remains dormant in fish and shellfish that feed on the plankton until larger mammals and birds feed on the fish that have ingested the substance.
...
Joe Cordaro, a wildlife biologist with the National Marine Fisheries Service in Long Beach, noted that two dead common dolphins had washed ashore in Malibu and one in Manhattan Beach. It is not yet clear whether domoic acid is at fault.
So... I'm trying to see what the field strength is in real time and if it is shifting. I found this and think its a good start:
www.magnetic-declination.com/
O'Neals California Real Time Magnetic Data.
Torque Owner Britton LaRoche
@Maryln,
Yeah you got it. That is what I'd call an accurate prediction using the Berkland-LaRoche method. I need to look up the 1700 quake you are referring to because its not in my database.
@Peter, I expect this summer and the month after the triple eclipse will be a real nightmare. I have not posted the predictions yet.
On page 23 (of this blog) we have the following prediction and real quake near match.
Actual:
Magnitude 6.5
Date-Time
* Thursday, April 07, 2011 at 13:11:24 UTC
* Thursday, April 07, 2011 at 08:11:24 AM at epicenter
Location 17.431N, 93.978W
Depth 167.4 km (104.0 miles)
Region VERACRUZ, MEXICO
Off by about 2 degrees and 8 days and 1 order of magnitude. The magnitude is not what I expected. But again I need to consider the time and pressure build up in the plates. Basically I need to find the "super cycle" for each region.