Japan Tokai Quake Predicted for late 2016 early 2017
by Britton LaRoche · 01/08/2009 (2:12 pm) · 1262 comments
Update Jan 2013: Quake Database Built and Tested! Results are Here:
Note: Our method for predicting earthquakes has failed for a Southern California earthquake in the Spring 2011 and for the Tokai earthquake in Japan, and for Istanbul in 2012. This method of predicting earthquakes is still just a theory at this point.
In spite of the setbacks over the past year, we have predicted several significant earthquakes (documented in this blog) using a lunar tidal model. An entire community of people have contributed in this blog. Together we watched earthquake patterns as we made predictions. The authors here have contributed by presenting new ideas and linked research. Together we have refined the model over time. We believe the next window for the Japan Tokai quake is now in late 2016 or early 2017.
The Tokai earthquake article quoted below is linked here: geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm
"The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 30 years.... The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2012, it has been 158 years and counting."
Utilizing the theory tha certain lunar and solar eclipse cycles create higher than normal tidal pressure in Japan, we were able to use this model to correctly account for and predict almost all of the past tokai quakes in Japan. See page 43 for the details. www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/43
Current Japan Tokai Predictions based on the Lunar Saros Eclipse Cycle 114 and the resulting tidal pressures.
In the past we were not able to pinpoint the exact location. Using the stress transfer algorithm developed by scientist Jeffrey King and his team we now believe we have a method of predicting both the time and the location. Watch the video here for an explanation.
The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
Actual
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original 2009 Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
Once the donations hit 1 million USD I will quit my full time job and dedicate myself to quake prediction. All I need is a dollar from one million people or a million dollars from one very generous billionaire. Maybe Bill Gates would be interested. ;)
View Stats
Note: Our method for predicting earthquakes has failed for a Southern California earthquake in the Spring 2011 and for the Tokai earthquake in Japan, and for Istanbul in 2012. This method of predicting earthquakes is still just a theory at this point.
In spite of the setbacks over the past year, we have predicted several significant earthquakes (documented in this blog) using a lunar tidal model. An entire community of people have contributed in this blog. Together we watched earthquake patterns as we made predictions. The authors here have contributed by presenting new ideas and linked research. Together we have refined the model over time. We believe the next window for the Japan Tokai quake is now in late 2016 or early 2017.
The Tokai earthquake article quoted below is linked here: geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm
"The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 30 years.... The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2012, it has been 158 years and counting."
Utilizing the theory tha certain lunar and solar eclipse cycles create higher than normal tidal pressure in Japan, we were able to use this model to correctly account for and predict almost all of the past tokai quakes in Japan. See page 43 for the details. www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/43
Current Japan Tokai Predictions based on the Lunar Saros Eclipse Cycle 114 and the resulting tidal pressures.
PREDICTED QUAKE_DATE ECLIPSE_DATE DAYS SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2016-11-19 1498-09-20 1498-12-13 -84 114 8.6 34 138.1 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA 2016-11-19 1498-09-20 1498-12-13 -84 114 7.5 33.5 135.2 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 2017-04-01 1854-12-24 1854-11-20 34 140 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN 2017-04-02 1854-12-24 1854-11-04 50 114 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN
In the past we were not able to pinpoint the exact location. Using the stress transfer algorithm developed by scientist Jeffrey King and his team we now believe we have a method of predicting both the time and the location. Watch the video here for an explanation.
The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
PREDICTED ORIGIN SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-08 1916-04-21 118 7.8 33 141 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
Actual
DATE SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-11 118 9.0 38.30 142.37 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original 2009 Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Magnitude 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
Quote:
Tidal forces may have contributed to triggering the devastating magnitude 9.0 Sumatra earthquake of 2004 and other large earthquakes in the region. Gravitational pull from the Sun and the Moon not only is responsible for ocean tides but also creates Earth tides, slight motions of the solid Earth (bulges and dips in the earth's crust and upper mantle) that can lead to stress buildup (or stress relief) along faults.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Quote:
doi:10.1029/2009GL041581
The frequency distribution of tidal phase angles in the pre-event period exhibited a peak near the angle where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault slip. This implies that the high correlation observed in the pre-seismic stage is not a stochastic chance but is likely a physical consequence of the tidal stress change.
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
Once the donations hit 1 million USD I will quit my full time job and dedicate myself to quake prediction. All I need is a dollar from one million people or a million dollars from one very generous billionaire. Maybe Bill Gates would be interested. ;)
#462
Yes, it seems that way. Basically it means the same saros series for 1854 will repeat and flip (lunar / solar) between 2012 and 2017. I'd say the Tokai quake is due and that these are the best dates for a possible prediction.
I'd say if there really is a Tokai quake cycle then its most likely to occur in the next 5 years.
Japan Tokai Quake Predictions
There is a possibility that we are seeing correlations that do not exist. Our brains are pre-programmed to look for correlations and patterns in nature. I think the reason is that the universe operates on a set of predictable laws, once you understand it the future is rather predictable.
Any species that can grasp the laws and prepare is bound to have an edge on survival. That is why our brains operate this way. To say that earthquakes are random unpredictable events goes against human nature.
That being said we are not going to have 9 Tokai quakes. The cycle is one every 150 years (If there is a Tokai cycle, and this super cycle is also not an artifact of the human mind).
So here is my problem, we will not have 9 Tokai quakes. We will have one. The pressure will be relieved, and we will wait until the pressure builds up over 150 years. At best one of these predictions is correct. Which one?
This is my current problem. Predicting 9 quakes for one event.
03/31/2011 (9:31 am)
@Marilyn, Yeah you've got it.Quote:
It looks like 140 and 145 (LUNAR) in 2012 are coming up again in 2017 as SOLAR eclipse saros. Oh boy, another potential Tokai?
Yes, it seems that way. Basically it means the same saros series for 1854 will repeat and flip (lunar / solar) between 2012 and 2017. I'd say the Tokai quake is due and that these are the best dates for a possible prediction.
I'd say if there really is a Tokai quake cycle then its most likely to occur in the next 5 years.
Japan Tokai Quake Predictions
PREDICTED SAROS ORIGIN MAG LAT LONG REGION --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2012-07-08 140 1854-12-24 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN 2013-12-16 117 1099-02-22 8.4 33 135.5 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 2014-05-02 148 1707-10-28 8.4 33.2 134.8 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 2014-05-02 148 1707-10-28 8.4 34.1 137.8 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA 2015-01-20 132 1605-02-03 7.9 33 134.9 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 2015-06-03 120 1361-08-03 8.4 33 135 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 2016-11-19 114 1498-09-20 8.6 34 138.1 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA 2017-04-01 140 1854-12-24 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN 2017-04-02 114 1854-12-24 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN
There is a possibility that we are seeing correlations that do not exist. Our brains are pre-programmed to look for correlations and patterns in nature. I think the reason is that the universe operates on a set of predictable laws, once you understand it the future is rather predictable.
Any species that can grasp the laws and prepare is bound to have an edge on survival. That is why our brains operate this way. To say that earthquakes are random unpredictable events goes against human nature.
That being said we are not going to have 9 Tokai quakes. The cycle is one every 150 years (If there is a Tokai cycle, and this super cycle is also not an artifact of the human mind).
So here is my problem, we will not have 9 Tokai quakes. We will have one. The pressure will be relieved, and we will wait until the pressure builds up over 150 years. At best one of these predictions is correct. Which one?
This is my current problem. Predicting 9 quakes for one event.
#463
I studied the info you provided for the Tokai earthquake and made the following observations:
First- based on your chart the cycle isn't every 150 years. It was(number of years between quakes)
61yrs
142
209
3
262
137
107
102
157 and
166 since the last one.
Next I noticed there's a pattern to the months the Tokai has occured in. Starting from most recent to the left-(These are months (dec/oct/feb)
12/10/2/,9/8/2/,12/8/ 6
The last 8 Tokai earthquakes all occurred in the fall/winter months.(Aug-Feb) This suggests that temperature is a factor. Japan swings from bitter cold winters- to those effected by El Nino- which are very mild. Colder ground would be less flexible, less able to bend as it pushes against the other plate. This theory needs to be supported by a pattern of temp change that coincides with when the earthquakes occurred. I wasn't sure where to get this info from.
There's also a Longitude Location pattern- (old-to-new)
135,135, 137, 135,135, 138, 134,134, 135
The next logical location would be a 137/138 location. That's Enshunada.
The only Enshunada prediction that occurs at the correct time of year is this one:
#9- 2016-11-19 114 1498-09-20 8.6 34 138.1 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA
That would make this is the most logical of your predictions-
Janna
03/31/2011 (2:39 pm)
Britton- I studied the info you provided for the Tokai earthquake and made the following observations:
First- based on your chart the cycle isn't every 150 years. It was(number of years between quakes)
61yrs
142
209
3
262
137
107
102
157 and
166 since the last one.
Next I noticed there's a pattern to the months the Tokai has occured in. Starting from most recent to the left-(These are months (dec/oct/feb)
12/10/2/,9/8/2/,12/8/ 6
The last 8 Tokai earthquakes all occurred in the fall/winter months.(Aug-Feb) This suggests that temperature is a factor. Japan swings from bitter cold winters- to those effected by El Nino- which are very mild. Colder ground would be less flexible, less able to bend as it pushes against the other plate. This theory needs to be supported by a pattern of temp change that coincides with when the earthquakes occurred. I wasn't sure where to get this info from.
There's also a Longitude Location pattern- (old-to-new)
135,135, 137, 135,135, 138, 134,134, 135
The next logical location would be a 137/138 location. That's Enshunada.
The only Enshunada prediction that occurs at the correct time of year is this one:
#9- 2016-11-19 114 1498-09-20 8.6 34 138.1 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA
That would make this is the most logical of your predictions-
Janna
#464
Interesting observations. I wonder if we could apply a basic time vs force algorithm. 209 pop - 3 pop - 262 pop. Notice the average. 474 years and 3 quakes 474/3 = 158. Its still about 150. 262 + 137+107 = 506.
506 / 3 = 168. I think I'd like to plot it. One line for the real quake time and one line for a rolling average of every 3 quakes.
1854 + 168 = 2022
1854 + 158 = 2012
03/31/2011 (6:11 pm)
@Jana,Interesting observations. I wonder if we could apply a basic time vs force algorithm. 209 pop - 3 pop - 262 pop. Notice the average. 474 years and 3 quakes 474/3 = 158. Its still about 150. 262 + 137+107 = 506.
506 / 3 = 168. I think I'd like to plot it. One line for the real quake time and one line for a rolling average of every 3 quakes.
1854 + 168 = 2022
1854 + 158 = 2012
#465
The winter months must just be coincidence. Once you dig about five feet down into the ground, whether its Siberia or Death Valley, its pretty much the same temperature everywhere.
03/31/2011 (7:59 pm)
Janna,The winter months must just be coincidence. Once you dig about five feet down into the ground, whether its Siberia or Death Valley, its pretty much the same temperature everywhere.
#466
03/31/2011 (8:03 pm)
There was a 4.4 earthquake in Baja and a 3.1 earthquake in Big Bear Lake today in California
#467
I think in this type of information plotting- averaging doesn't apply.
When you plot number of years between/passage of time
The pattern is a rolling increase/decrease of the number of years between
events. Something like this-
Wow- I just found the mother load of data. I'm assuming you already know about the following data base?
"Catalog of Damaging Earthquakes in the World," which contains more than 10,000 destructive earthquakes in the world from 3000 B.C. Compiled by Dr. Tokuji Utsu, Professor Emeritus of Tokyo University.
iisee.kenken.go.jp/utsu/index_eng.html
04/01/2011 (1:54 pm)
Britton-I think in this type of information plotting- averaging doesn't apply.
When you plot number of years between/passage of time
The pattern is a rolling increase/decrease of the number of years between
events. Something like this-
Wow- I just found the mother load of data. I'm assuming you already know about the following data base?
"Catalog of Damaging Earthquakes in the World," which contains more than 10,000 destructive earthquakes in the world from 3000 B.C. Compiled by Dr. Tokuji Utsu, Professor Emeritus of Tokyo University.
iisee.kenken.go.jp/utsu/index_eng.html
#468
Did you see this article?
~Marilyn
Strong earthquake hits off Indonesia's main island
A strong earthquake hit off Indonesia's main island of Java early Monday, prompting authorities to briefly issue a tsunami warning that sent thousands of residents fleeing to higher ground.
By ALI KOTARUMALOS
Associated Press
Related
JAKARTA, Indonesia —
A strong earthquake hit off Indonesia's main island of Java early Monday, prompting authorities to briefly issue a tsunami warning that sent thousands of residents fleeing to higher ground.
There were no immediate reports of injuries or damage.
Following the tsunami warning, many in the town of Cilacap, closest to the quake's epicenter, poured into the grand mosque. When word finally came that the threat of a big wave had passed, they erupted in cheers, embraced one another or fell to their knees in thanks.
"We were very scared after seeing what happened in Japan - and also Aceh, of course," said Sukitno, a resident. "But God listened to our prayers. He spared us!"
The U.S. Geological Survey said the magnitude-6.7 quake that hit just after 3 a.m. was centered 200 miles (318 kilometers) off southern Java and 15 miles (24 kilometers) beneath the ocean floor.
Both Indonesia and Japan are prone to seismic upheaval due to its location on the so-called "Ring of Fire," an arc of volcanos and fault lines encircling the Pacific Basin.
A 2004 tsunami off Indonesia's westernmost province of Aceh killed 230,000 people in a dozen nations. Officials fear up to 25,000 may have died after last month's earthquake and tsunami in Japan."
Source: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2014677131_apasindonesiaearthquake.html
04/04/2011 (8:38 pm)
Britton, Did you see this article?
~Marilyn
Strong earthquake hits off Indonesia's main island
A strong earthquake hit off Indonesia's main island of Java early Monday, prompting authorities to briefly issue a tsunami warning that sent thousands of residents fleeing to higher ground.
By ALI KOTARUMALOS
Associated Press
Related
JAKARTA, Indonesia —
A strong earthquake hit off Indonesia's main island of Java early Monday, prompting authorities to briefly issue a tsunami warning that sent thousands of residents fleeing to higher ground.
There were no immediate reports of injuries or damage.
Following the tsunami warning, many in the town of Cilacap, closest to the quake's epicenter, poured into the grand mosque. When word finally came that the threat of a big wave had passed, they erupted in cheers, embraced one another or fell to their knees in thanks.
"We were very scared after seeing what happened in Japan - and also Aceh, of course," said Sukitno, a resident. "But God listened to our prayers. He spared us!"
The U.S. Geological Survey said the magnitude-6.7 quake that hit just after 3 a.m. was centered 200 miles (318 kilometers) off southern Java and 15 miles (24 kilometers) beneath the ocean floor.
Both Indonesia and Japan are prone to seismic upheaval due to its location on the so-called "Ring of Fire," an arc of volcanos and fault lines encircling the Pacific Basin.
A 2004 tsunami off Indonesia's westernmost province of Aceh killed 230,000 people in a dozen nations. Officials fear up to 25,000 may have died after last month's earthquake and tsunami in Japan."
Source: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2014677131_apasindonesiaearthquake.html
#469
I've been pretty worried lately, living in Vancouver BC, Canada, where the "experts" say we're long overdue a major quake, but supposedly can't give us any idea whether it'll happen tomorrow or 50 years from now, etc. Considering Japan and others that have recently had earthquakes, and figuring that these things are connected, I'm inclined to think we'll get hit sooner rather than later.
If you could please help narrow it down and check your database for Canada, I'd be very grateful. And maybe when I show them this website, I can finally get loved ones to take the danger more seriously. (Earthquake awareness/preparedness has increased in BC, since Japan, but I still feel like a doomsday alarmist without facts and stats to back things up.) Thanks very much for your time.
ETA: I'm mostly concerned about cycles repeating and causing another like this one: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1700_Cascadia_earthquake
But I understand if there isn't enough data about such an event so long ago, and I would of course appreciate advance warning of any smaller quakes affecting BC as well. Please forgive my inability to make these predictions myself, although I tried to wrap my brain around the posts/charts/graphs in this thread.
04/05/2011 (11:08 am)
Hi Britton, I found your blog searching google for earthquake predictions and am feeling a little more calm and hopeful after reading about your methods and success rate. I never wanted to believe that it was truly impossible to predict earthquakes - at least, to give the public an idea where and when, even with a few weeks leeway, would be helpful. Studying history and looking for patterns makes sense to me. And I like your attitude, trying to help people but not wanting to cause panic, or seek glory.I've been pretty worried lately, living in Vancouver BC, Canada, where the "experts" say we're long overdue a major quake, but supposedly can't give us any idea whether it'll happen tomorrow or 50 years from now, etc. Considering Japan and others that have recently had earthquakes, and figuring that these things are connected, I'm inclined to think we'll get hit sooner rather than later.
If you could please help narrow it down and check your database for Canada, I'd be very grateful. And maybe when I show them this website, I can finally get loved ones to take the danger more seriously. (Earthquake awareness/preparedness has increased in BC, since Japan, but I still feel like a doomsday alarmist without facts and stats to back things up.) Thanks very much for your time.
ETA: I'm mostly concerned about cycles repeating and causing another like this one: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1700_Cascadia_earthquake
But I understand if there isn't enough data about such an event so long ago, and I would of course appreciate advance warning of any smaller quakes affecting BC as well. Please forgive my inability to make these predictions myself, although I tried to wrap my brain around the posts/charts/graphs in this thread.
#470
04/05/2011 (2:05 pm)
This blog is great please continue your work it may end up saving countless lives
#471
@nhq, I've been watching Baja and Southern California like a hawk. Nothing significant so far.
@Marylyn, good article. My database has predicted quakes near there, as seen in the earlier post. I'm glad it was not a major quake.
@Serena, I've seen numerous hits in the database for Alaska, but none so far for British Columbia. I'll run a query for you and see what comes up for the next few years.
@Glenn, thanks for your support. This is really just a hobby. The only payment I get is the comments in this blog. It keeps me focused and interested. The feedback is very helpful. It was Orion who gave me the idea of putting all this in a database and running queries against it to see if I could predict past quakes. I see this as an amateur knowledge sharing and collaboration on the project. Something the scientific community has abandoned as impossible.
04/06/2011 (9:39 am)
@Jana, I like your graph. I'm starting to think there may be a "super cycle" that overlaps these quakes. We should be able to see this in rock formations, or sediment layers or something that will give us a history of the quake cycle for a particular region. If we combine this super cycle with the saros cycle we can pick out several likely dates for the next big quake. One of them will be correct. It helps us narrow down the list of possibilities.@nhq, I've been watching Baja and Southern California like a hawk. Nothing significant so far.
@Marylyn, good article. My database has predicted quakes near there, as seen in the earlier post. I'm glad it was not a major quake.
@Serena, I've seen numerous hits in the database for Alaska, but none so far for British Columbia. I'll run a query for you and see what comes up for the next few years.
@Glenn, thanks for your support. This is really just a hobby. The only payment I get is the comments in this blog. It keeps me focused and interested. The feedback is very helpful. It was Orion who gave me the idea of putting all this in a database and running queries against it to see if I could predict past quakes. I see this as an amateur knowledge sharing and collaboration on the project. Something the scientific community has abandoned as impossible.
#472
Looks fairly peaceful in BC until 2013. I have not studied quakes in BC, so I'm not sure how accurate any of this is. In 2013 we have the same lunar Saros of the June 1946 magnitude 7.3 quake. That is of course, if you consider a magnitude 6.0 quake "peaceful."
Remember a magnitude 7 quake is 10 times more powerful than a magnitude 6. Most of the data I could pull came from the USGS. Unfortunately, we don't have a historical record for BC like we do for Japan that goes back centuries.
I'd expect maybe one or two in this list to result in an actual accurate prediction. Here is a link to the June 23rd 1946 earthquake.
articles.adsabs.harvard.edu//full/1946JRASC..40..285H/0000285.000.html
04/06/2011 (10:11 am)
@Serena,Looks fairly peaceful in BC until 2013. I have not studied quakes in BC, so I'm not sure how accurate any of this is. In 2013 we have the same lunar Saros of the June 1946 magnitude 7.3 quake. That is of course, if you consider a magnitude 6.0 quake "peaceful."
Remember a magnitude 7 quake is 10 times more powerful than a magnitude 6. Most of the data I could pull came from the USGS. Unfortunately, we don't have a historical record for BC like we do for Japan that goes back centuries.
PREDICTED_DATE ORIGIN SAROS MAG LAT LONGITUDE REGION ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-08-14 1993-08-03 130 6.0 51.19 -130.8 BRITISH COLUMBIA 2011-12-18 1998-08-30 135 6.1 50.91 -130.6 BRITISH COLUMBIA 2012-09-27 2008-01-05 133 4.0 51.03 -130.9 BRITISH COLUMBIA 2012-09-27 2008-01-05 133 6.4 51.16 -130.5 BRITISH COLUMBIA 2012-09-27 2008-01-05 133 6.6 51.25 -130.7 BRITISH COLUMBIA 2013-10-25 2009-01-30 143 4.5 47.77 -122.5 BRITISH COLUMBIA 2013-11-12 1946-06-23 117 7.3 49.87 -124.9 BRITISH COLUMBIA 2013-12-22 2009-03-30 143 3.6 47.60 -123.4 BRITISH COLUMBIA 2016-05-08 1993-08-03 130 6.0 51.19 -130.8 BRITISH COLUMBIA 2016-09-09 1998-08-30 135 6.1 50.91 -130.6 BRITISH COLUMBIA 2016-09-09 1998-08-30 147 6.1 50.91 -130.6 BRITISH COLUMBIA
I'd expect maybe one or two in this list to result in an actual accurate prediction. Here is a link to the June 23rd 1946 earthquake.
articles.adsabs.harvard.edu//full/1946JRASC..40..285H/0000285.000.html
#473
Anyway, thanks again and please continue your "hobby"! Looks like we'll have to depend on intelligent amateurs like you. I suspect too many of those professional "experts" are scared to risk their reputation on theories, go against the accepted belief that it's impossible and get booted from the scientific community. But then, how will they ever discover anything and put it to practical use, with that attitude? You're right, they should be ashamed for giving up.
04/06/2011 (12:26 pm)
Thank you very much! At least there's hope we have a few months to prepare - maybe a few years. If you only expect a few of those to happen, I wonder if the greater magnitude quakes from the past (like the one in 1946) have a greater chance of reoccuring than the others? Of course we don't only *get* larger quakes, so my idea probably stinks. But I wonder if there's any sort of pattern to be found when looking back on your lists and knowing which predicted ones actually happened...Anyway, thanks again and please continue your "hobby"! Looks like we'll have to depend on intelligent amateurs like you. I suspect too many of those professional "experts" are scared to risk their reputation on theories, go against the accepted belief that it's impossible and get booted from the scientific community. But then, how will they ever discover anything and put it to practical use, with that attitude? You're right, they should be ashamed for giving up.
#474
04/06/2011 (8:54 pm)
I been playing catch on your blog but what caught my eye was that you were trying to incorporate Keplar's laws into a game. I'm currently stuck trying to incorporate both Keplar's laws and Newton's law of universal gravitation into a game. I may need to fake this effect but I'd like to try to get the actual physics of planetary attraction right. If you wouldn't mind sharing your orbital code I'd greatly appreciate it.
#475
We just had another big quake in Japan, Magnitude 7.4 with coordinates 38.2 142.0.
I have been following your blog a lot recently. Does this quake correspond with your prediction for 2011-04-06, of post 03/16/2011 (6:20 am)?
Thanks again for sharing all of this. It really helps!
04/07/2011 (9:05 am)
Dear LaRoche,We just had another big quake in Japan, Magnitude 7.4 with coordinates 38.2 142.0.
I have been following your blog a lot recently. Does this quake correspond with your prediction for 2011-04-06, of post 03/16/2011 (6:20 am)?
Thanks again for sharing all of this. It really helps!
#476
By the way there was also a 6.5 in Mexico today too.
04/07/2011 (9:46 am)
Whats intersting is its considered an aftershock in the same location as the 9.0 last month... im not very sure if aftershocks are predictable but maybe Im wrong.By the way there was also a 6.5 in Mexico today too.
#477
Right you are. I had to go back to page 21 to see it.
This one is pretty close. Again a fairly accurate prediction. Its a shame I can give a list, and know that one or two on the list will be correct within a few degrees of latitude and a few days. I just can't tell which one. Perhaps the older quakes are the most likely to repeat, the pressure has built up enough to have a serious quake.
Looks like the 1812 quake and the influence of the Saros 118 geometry are at work again. Only this time its worse because of the recent quakes. An earthquake is nothing more than the movement of the earths crust. As it slides along we have several earthquakes. The idea of an aftershock is nonsense, we have quakes clustered together because the plates are moving. Quakes are clustered together because of the movement of the plates.
Actual:
Magnitude 7.1
Date-Time
* Thursday, April 07, 2011 at 14:32:41 UTC
Location 38.253N, 141.640E
Depth 49 km (30.4 miles)
Region NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances 66 km (41 miles) E of Sendai, Honshu, Japan
@nhq, Mexico is due I think. Now that we have quakes, as I stated above we know the pates are moving. We will have a cluster of quakes. I'll have to do some digging into Mexico's quake history to see what may happen next.
04/07/2011 (11:38 am)
@trutlegirl,Right you are. I had to go back to page 21 to see it.
PREDICTED SAROS ORIGIN MAG LAT LONG REGION ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-04-05 118 1993-03-25 6.0 41.80 143.47 JAPAN: HOKKAIDO 2011-04-06 118 1812-12-07 6.6 35.4 139.6 JAPAN 2011-04-11 118 1988-07-06 6.3 41.74 144.20 JAPAN: HOKKAIDO 2011-05-05 118 1988-07-30 6.3 44.77 149.89 RUSSIA: KURIL ISLANDS 2011-05-12 118 1975-04-20 6.1 33.19 131.3 JAPAN: OITA; AROSAN 2011-05-12 130 1975-04-20 6.1 33.19 131.30 JAPAN: AROSAN 2011-05-12 130 1980-01-12 6.0 41.68 143.59 JAPAN: HOKKAIDO
This one is pretty close. Again a fairly accurate prediction. Its a shame I can give a list, and know that one or two on the list will be correct within a few degrees of latitude and a few days. I just can't tell which one. Perhaps the older quakes are the most likely to repeat, the pressure has built up enough to have a serious quake.
PREDICTED SAROS ORIGIN MAG LAT LONG REGION ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-04-06 118 1812-12-07 6.6 35.4 139.6 JAPAN
Looks like the 1812 quake and the influence of the Saros 118 geometry are at work again. Only this time its worse because of the recent quakes. An earthquake is nothing more than the movement of the earths crust. As it slides along we have several earthquakes. The idea of an aftershock is nonsense, we have quakes clustered together because the plates are moving. Quakes are clustered together because of the movement of the plates.
Actual:
Magnitude 7.1
Date-Time
* Thursday, April 07, 2011 at 14:32:41 UTC
Location 38.253N, 141.640E
Depth 49 km (30.4 miles)
Region NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances 66 km (41 miles) E of Sendai, Honshu, Japan
@nhq, Mexico is due I think. Now that we have quakes, as I stated above we know the pates are moving. We will have a cluster of quakes. I'll have to do some digging into Mexico's quake history to see what may happen next.
#478
Maybe looking at recent earthquakes in nearby countries could help verify which dates on your lists are more likely... these major quakes seem to be happening so close together lately! But it seems like a very complicated "formula". I bet you're right about older quakes being most likely to repeat. Thanks again for all your work. Even knowing there's a good chance of a quake within the month, or next, is helpful. Don't be discouraged!
ETA: Today's in Mexico seems close-ish to this one you predicted - a week late and 6.5 instead of 7.5, but I think it counts!
predicted:
2011-03-30 1921-02-04 7.5 15 -91 MEXICO-GUATEMALA
actual: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenews/2011/usc0002kru/
04/07/2011 (1:56 pm)
Clusters/plates moving and affecting eachother makes so much sense. Maybe there's a domino effect happening right now, and Mexico's quake(s) could increase the chance of California getting hit (predicted a few pages back, for April, I think), which could then lead to BC Canada, a few months later (August is first on your list, although as you said, not enough records for BC, so could be any time, really.)Maybe looking at recent earthquakes in nearby countries could help verify which dates on your lists are more likely... these major quakes seem to be happening so close together lately! But it seems like a very complicated "formula". I bet you're right about older quakes being most likely to repeat. Thanks again for all your work. Even knowing there's a good chance of a quake within the month, or next, is helpful. Don't be discouraged!
ETA: Today's in Mexico seems close-ish to this one you predicted - a week late and 6.5 instead of 7.5, but I think it counts!
predicted:
2011-03-30 1921-02-04 7.5 15 -91 MEXICO-GUATEMALA
actual: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenews/2011/usc0002kru/
#479
FYI, my husband mentioned that he heard retired geologist, Jim Berkland on the radio. He's predicting a California quake some time between April 17-24, 2011.
(He's basing his prediction on the Paschal Full Moon on April 18, high tide, and atmospheric pressure.)
http://www.seasky.org/astronomy/astronomy-calendar-2011.html
I'm wondering if the west coast might be rocked this month based on the SOLAR eclipse saros of 118. I found a match for the big PNW Great Cascadia quake that occured in 1700 on Jan. 26 (Mag 8.7 to 9.2).
Britton, to calculate a possible date, is the following methodology correct? In 1700, a LUNAR eclipse (saros 118) occured on March 5. So counting back to the quake date of Jan. 26 is 39 days. Counting backward from the SOLAR eclipse (saros 118) on June 01 brings us to April 24, 2011. (Right?)
It's interesting that I've arrived at a similar date as Jim Berkland. Perhaps those of us on the west coast should prepare for an Easter Earthquake?
Your thoughts?
~Marilyn
04/08/2011 (3:25 am)
Hi Britton,FYI, my husband mentioned that he heard retired geologist, Jim Berkland on the radio. He's predicting a California quake some time between April 17-24, 2011.
(He's basing his prediction on the Paschal Full Moon on April 18, high tide, and atmospheric pressure.)
http://www.seasky.org/astronomy/astronomy-calendar-2011.html
I'm wondering if the west coast might be rocked this month based on the SOLAR eclipse saros of 118. I found a match for the big PNW Great Cascadia quake that occured in 1700 on Jan. 26 (Mag 8.7 to 9.2).
Britton, to calculate a possible date, is the following methodology correct? In 1700, a LUNAR eclipse (saros 118) occured on March 5. So counting back to the quake date of Jan. 26 is 39 days. Counting backward from the SOLAR eclipse (saros 118) on June 01 brings us to April 24, 2011. (Right?)
It's interesting that I've arrived at a similar date as Jim Berkland. Perhaps those of us on the west coast should prepare for an Easter Earthquake?
Your thoughts?
~Marilyn
John
Short answer: For 2011 and 2012, no, I don't see anything interesting from 1498, 1605, and 1707 in your list of Possibly Related Saros.
Long answer: I see your list of Possibly Related Saros intermingles the SOLAR and LUNAR eclipses. So is date setting from the nearest eclipse, whether it's lunar or solar? I completely missed this point previously.
To compare earthquake years with the current year, I've been keeping the SOLAR and LUNAR eclipse saros separated in two columns side-by-side. I find the number sequences are pretty easy to spot that way. (I think the numbers repeat every 18 saros, right?)
One saros that's on my list but I don't see on yours is 116. I see it in two places--in 1498-01-08 (LUNAR) and 1606-03-24 (LUNAR). Since I don't know the exact dates of the quakes, they may not be relevant.
I see 111 on your list for 1605-9-27 (LUNAR). I also have 111 noted for 1497-07-04 (LUNAR). Again, may not be relevant per the quake date.
If they are relevant, LUNAR saros 111 and 116 appear in sequence in both 1498 and 1605 and might be predictive in the future.
I believe I previously mentioned I see a repeat of 109 and 114. I see them in both 1498 (SOLAR) and 1854 (LUNAR). Perhaps predictive for the future?
It looks like 140 and 145 (LUNAR) in 2012 are coming up again in 2017 as SOLAR eclipse saros. Oh boy, another potential Tokai?
It would be very interesting to look at all the relevant saros for the other quakes on your list, Possible Past Quakes in Japan. Sorry, no time for that tonight!
So how am I doing?
Thanks for taking the time to educate me (and your readers). Tomorrow, we're headed out of town for the weekend.
Cheers for now,
Marilyn