Japan Tokai Quake Predicted for late 2016 early 2017
by Britton LaRoche · 01/08/2009 (2:12 pm) · 1262 comments
Update Jan 2013: Quake Database Built and Tested! Results are Here:
Note: Our method for predicting earthquakes has failed for a Southern California earthquake in the Spring 2011 and for the Tokai earthquake in Japan, and for Istanbul in 2012. This method of predicting earthquakes is still just a theory at this point.
In spite of the setbacks over the past year, we have predicted several significant earthquakes (documented in this blog) using a lunar tidal model. An entire community of people have contributed in this blog. Together we watched earthquake patterns as we made predictions. The authors here have contributed by presenting new ideas and linked research. Together we have refined the model over time. We believe the next window for the Japan Tokai quake is now in late 2016 or early 2017.
The Tokai earthquake article quoted below is linked here: geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm
"The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 30 years.... The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2012, it has been 158 years and counting."
Utilizing the theory tha certain lunar and solar eclipse cycles create higher than normal tidal pressure in Japan, we were able to use this model to correctly account for and predict almost all of the past tokai quakes in Japan. See page 43 for the details. www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/43
Current Japan Tokai Predictions based on the Lunar Saros Eclipse Cycle 114 and the resulting tidal pressures.
In the past we were not able to pinpoint the exact location. Using the stress transfer algorithm developed by scientist Jeffrey King and his team we now believe we have a method of predicting both the time and the location. Watch the video here for an explanation.
The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
Actual
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original 2009 Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
Once the donations hit 1 million USD I will quit my full time job and dedicate myself to quake prediction. All I need is a dollar from one million people or a million dollars from one very generous billionaire. Maybe Bill Gates would be interested. ;)
View Stats
Note: Our method for predicting earthquakes has failed for a Southern California earthquake in the Spring 2011 and for the Tokai earthquake in Japan, and for Istanbul in 2012. This method of predicting earthquakes is still just a theory at this point.
In spite of the setbacks over the past year, we have predicted several significant earthquakes (documented in this blog) using a lunar tidal model. An entire community of people have contributed in this blog. Together we watched earthquake patterns as we made predictions. The authors here have contributed by presenting new ideas and linked research. Together we have refined the model over time. We believe the next window for the Japan Tokai quake is now in late 2016 or early 2017.
The Tokai earthquake article quoted below is linked here: geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm
"The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 30 years.... The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2012, it has been 158 years and counting."
Utilizing the theory tha certain lunar and solar eclipse cycles create higher than normal tidal pressure in Japan, we were able to use this model to correctly account for and predict almost all of the past tokai quakes in Japan. See page 43 for the details. www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/43
Current Japan Tokai Predictions based on the Lunar Saros Eclipse Cycle 114 and the resulting tidal pressures.
PREDICTED QUAKE_DATE ECLIPSE_DATE DAYS SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2016-11-19 1498-09-20 1498-12-13 -84 114 8.6 34 138.1 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA 2016-11-19 1498-09-20 1498-12-13 -84 114 7.5 33.5 135.2 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 2017-04-01 1854-12-24 1854-11-20 34 140 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN 2017-04-02 1854-12-24 1854-11-04 50 114 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN
In the past we were not able to pinpoint the exact location. Using the stress transfer algorithm developed by scientist Jeffrey King and his team we now believe we have a method of predicting both the time and the location. Watch the video here for an explanation.
The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
PREDICTED ORIGIN SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-08 1916-04-21 118 7.8 33 141 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
Actual
DATE SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-11 118 9.0 38.30 142.37 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original 2009 Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Magnitude 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
Quote:
Tidal forces may have contributed to triggering the devastating magnitude 9.0 Sumatra earthquake of 2004 and other large earthquakes in the region. Gravitational pull from the Sun and the Moon not only is responsible for ocean tides but also creates Earth tides, slight motions of the solid Earth (bulges and dips in the earth's crust and upper mantle) that can lead to stress buildup (or stress relief) along faults.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Quote:
doi:10.1029/2009GL041581
The frequency distribution of tidal phase angles in the pre-event period exhibited a peak near the angle where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault slip. This implies that the high correlation observed in the pre-seismic stage is not a stochastic chance but is likely a physical consequence of the tidal stress change.
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
Once the donations hit 1 million USD I will quit my full time job and dedicate myself to quake prediction. All I need is a dollar from one million people or a million dollars from one very generous billionaire. Maybe Bill Gates would be interested. ;)
#443
03/29/2011 (2:40 am)
Britton, your prediction on April 8th is when the planets line up and is marked for San Juan Capistrano. I am very familiar with San Clemente as I have lived there for a few years and the only thing separating San Juan Capistrano from San Onofre Power Plant is San Clemente itself. San Clemente is a small town, maybe only 8 miles from one end to the other. 
#444
03/29/2011 (4:37 am)
Hi Britton, I have some information from email saying that there will be an straight coincide with Saturn and Earth on 4th April 2011, 10:35am (I don't know what world time is it :D) , and there will be an earthquake in Europe Region, that will cause huge Tsunami. What is your prediction for that time? If any. Thanks.
#445
For those reading, be sure to read her post on page 22. I think she is on to something. www.garagegames.com/community/blog/view/15946/22 at the bottom.
I can clearly see the same zeal in you that I had once I saw the data. You understand, and I think with your understanding you can now predict earthquakes better than the most highly trained geologist. Yeah, we have about 40 saros that are active at any given time. Yet its just a handful that produce the devastating quakes. I'm impressed and will take a closer look at the saros series you posted.
Also, since you get it, you now have a responsibility. Your ability to predict earthquakes and explain why can save lives. Its up to us (ordinary people) and word of mouth to change the horrible idea in science that predicting earthquakes is impossible. You should bring this up as often as possible, and communicate the idea as far and wide as you can.
I believe the triple eclipse this summer will produce some really devastating quakes over the next year or so. I agree that we may have encountered a dreadful cycle. If Alfred Wegener was right about the forces behind continental drift (gravitational pull of the sun and moon), then you have to suspect that at certain times the shifting of the tectonic plates occur in tandem, and they move together. I think now (next few years) is one of those times. The logic is simple there is a super set of saros series of the moon pulling in such away that it is accelerating the natural process of continental drift. There is probably a cycle to this too.
@nhq, I don't see how the other planets really have an effect. I could be wrong but some online research shows that the gravitational pull of moon is about 1,000 time more powerful than our nearest planet Venus.
The Moon exerts a gravitational pull of approximately 0.0000331 m/s, while our neighbour planet Venus at its nearest to Earth, exerts a gravitational pull of approximately 0.000000224 m/s
That means the Moon gravitational pull on Earth is 148 times larger than Venus' gravitational pull on Earth - that is why the Moon (and the Sun) make the most affects on Earth.
Other planets also affect Earth, such as contribute to tides, but because there gravitational pull on Earth is so week it is barely noticeable.
@U Win, I love your name. I will re post the predictions with saros details. I believe the triple eclipse this summer will produce some really devastating quakes over the next year or so.
03/29/2011 (9:24 am)
@Marylin, your post makes me very happy. You've got it, and you've done research and you see the pattern. Now if we can communicate this to our fellow humans we've done our job. Its not our opposable human thumbs that make us great. Its our brains and the desire to see meaning and patterns in nature that have made us the dominant species on this planet. For those reading, be sure to read her post on page 22. I think she is on to something. www.garagegames.com/community/blog/view/15946/22 at the bottom.
I can clearly see the same zeal in you that I had once I saw the data. You understand, and I think with your understanding you can now predict earthquakes better than the most highly trained geologist. Yeah, we have about 40 saros that are active at any given time. Yet its just a handful that produce the devastating quakes. I'm impressed and will take a closer look at the saros series you posted.
Also, since you get it, you now have a responsibility. Your ability to predict earthquakes and explain why can save lives. Its up to us (ordinary people) and word of mouth to change the horrible idea in science that predicting earthquakes is impossible. You should bring this up as often as possible, and communicate the idea as far and wide as you can.
I believe the triple eclipse this summer will produce some really devastating quakes over the next year or so. I agree that we may have encountered a dreadful cycle. If Alfred Wegener was right about the forces behind continental drift (gravitational pull of the sun and moon), then you have to suspect that at certain times the shifting of the tectonic plates occur in tandem, and they move together. I think now (next few years) is one of those times. The logic is simple there is a super set of saros series of the moon pulling in such away that it is accelerating the natural process of continental drift. There is probably a cycle to this too.
@nhq, I don't see how the other planets really have an effect. I could be wrong but some online research shows that the gravitational pull of moon is about 1,000 time more powerful than our nearest planet Venus.
The Moon exerts a gravitational pull of approximately 0.0000331 m/s, while our neighbour planet Venus at its nearest to Earth, exerts a gravitational pull of approximately 0.000000224 m/s
That means the Moon gravitational pull on Earth is 148 times larger than Venus' gravitational pull on Earth - that is why the Moon (and the Sun) make the most affects on Earth.
Other planets also affect Earth, such as contribute to tides, but because there gravitational pull on Earth is so week it is barely noticeable.
@U Win, I love your name. I will re post the predictions with saros details. I believe the triple eclipse this summer will produce some really devastating quakes over the next year or so.
#446
Here is an example: knowledge.allianz.com/?449/interview-earthquake-italy-ceranna
The man most responsible for this paralysis of the mind is Robert J. Geller. I just predicted the sendai quake. Or pretty close, I'm on to something. I'm here to stick a fork in Robert J. Geller's eye (metaphorically speaking).
Japan Questions Its Costly Program to Predict Earthquakes
partners.nytimes.com/library/national/science/011398quake-predict.html
If the Japanese hired me I think I'd have something very useful in short order. In short yeah its frustrating and may seem impossible, but predicting earthquakes is necessary. It can be done. I have faith in our human design. We (human beings) search for patterns in nature for a reason. We have adapted, our minds have been selected and rewarded by nature because of this innate human desire and ability. It is this desire to find correlations, to quantify and classify and to make predictions based on our data (and take action) that insures our survival. This above all else has made us the dominant species on this planet.
Robert Geller says its impossible for us to do this. I say he is wrong, totally wrong. And shame on him and others like him for poisoning our best minds against progress in this area. We can do it, we will do it. Why hinder the progress?
03/29/2011 (9:40 am)
Frustrating. Its a good word. This is all the fault of one scientist who published a paper clearly articulating his frustration trying to predict earth quakes. His name is Robert J. Geller. The idea that predicting earthquakes is impossible has permeated the entire scientific community. It has paralyzed our best minds.Here is an example: knowledge.allianz.com/?449/interview-earthquake-italy-ceranna
Quote:
I think everyone in the seismological community would agree that earthquake prediction is impossible. At the moment, we are not able to predict earthquakes; it is just too complicated. Earthquake prediction is defined by three variables: you have to say when an earthquake will occur, where it will hit, and what strength it will have. And this information has to be precise. We are talking about plus minus ten or twenty kilometers, the date should be plus minus one day and the strength should cover a range of plus minus 0.3 magnitudes.
This is still impossible. We have not fully understood what is going on in the earth and what exactly might cause earthquakes. Of course, we have an idea, but this is more or less a mathematical and physical model. It is impossible for us to see into the earth; it is a solid medium and not glass.
The man most responsible for this paralysis of the mind is Robert J. Geller. I just predicted the sendai quake. Or pretty close, I'm on to something. I'm here to stick a fork in Robert J. Geller's eye (metaphorically speaking).
Japan Questions Its Costly Program to Predict Earthquakes
partners.nytimes.com/library/national/science/011398quake-predict.html
Quote:
Robert J. Geller, an associate professor in earth and planetary physics at the University of Tokyo who is the loudest critic of Japan's program, argues that earthquake prediction might be more than difficult -- it might be inherently impossible. Professor Geller, an American, asserts that earthquakes are chaotic phenomena, and that how large one becomes is determined by a myriad of unmeasurable details.
If the Japanese hired me I think I'd have something very useful in short order. In short yeah its frustrating and may seem impossible, but predicting earthquakes is necessary. It can be done. I have faith in our human design. We (human beings) search for patterns in nature for a reason. We have adapted, our minds have been selected and rewarded by nature because of this innate human desire and ability. It is this desire to find correlations, to quantify and classify and to make predictions based on our data (and take action) that insures our survival. This above all else has made us the dominant species on this planet.
Robert Geller says its impossible for us to do this. I say he is wrong, totally wrong. And shame on him and others like him for poisoning our best minds against progress in this area. We can do it, we will do it. Why hinder the progress?
#447
I would suggest using some basic newtonian physics to put in the gravitational pull on the earth's crust, not just the position. If we think gravity is the main effect, then adding in the pull from multiple planetary sources should increase the r-squared of your models.
03/29/2011 (10:54 am)
Keep up the good work. I think the theory has merit and could be combined with other indicators and science to be even more accurate. The fact is that the moon exerts a lot of force on the earth's crust and it would strain logic to think that there is no impact on tectonic plate activity. I would suggest using some basic newtonian physics to put in the gravitational pull on the earth's crust, not just the position. If we think gravity is the main effect, then adding in the pull from multiple planetary sources should increase the r-squared of your models.
#448
I've already started phase 2. I'm having some difficulty translating the lunar orbit tables to a 3d model. Originally I had the earth orbit the sun and the moon orbit the earth. I got it working but every update required me to recalculate the earths position and then calculate the lunar position. When I sped up time the moon would launch itself out of the solar system. Newton be darned! The physics of acceleration is not friendly to an increase in velocity. So long moon!
So now I'm simplifying things the earth slowly moves closer to and further from the sun (orbit is implied) as time passes. I don't have to have code logic for a camera track the orbit of the earth. I have the 3d model of the earth sun and moon, the moon is now the only one really in orbit. Calculating the lunar orbit and its eccentricity is not easy. I'm trying to use equations, but it seems likely that I need a lunar table anyway, to verify accuracy of the lunar position at a given point in time.
Anyways the 3d side is slow going but fun. Also I've found that scale is important but it makes it hard to visualize, so I'm not going to scale I'm going for concept. I have not figured out how to map the quakes on the earth. I have to calculate the lat long and then position something in the exact spot to indicate a quake. My artistic skills stink. I've never seen an uglier earth. Who would have thought I could mess up a sphere? The lighting is garish. Australia is whited out.
Casting the shadows for the eclipse for effect is also not easy. Bleh! Lots of work to be done.
03/29/2011 (12:54 pm)
@David Dines, Right you are! Phase 2 of this project is putting together a 3d model in a game engine with the proper lunar orbit to help visualize the relationship of the Saros to the historic quakes. Phase 3 is adding in a physics engine to do some of those calculations.I've already started phase 2. I'm having some difficulty translating the lunar orbit tables to a 3d model. Originally I had the earth orbit the sun and the moon orbit the earth. I got it working but every update required me to recalculate the earths position and then calculate the lunar position. When I sped up time the moon would launch itself out of the solar system. Newton be darned! The physics of acceleration is not friendly to an increase in velocity. So long moon!
So now I'm simplifying things the earth slowly moves closer to and further from the sun (orbit is implied) as time passes. I don't have to have code logic for a camera track the orbit of the earth. I have the 3d model of the earth sun and moon, the moon is now the only one really in orbit. Calculating the lunar orbit and its eccentricity is not easy. I'm trying to use equations, but it seems likely that I need a lunar table anyway, to verify accuracy of the lunar position at a given point in time.
Anyways the 3d side is slow going but fun. Also I've found that scale is important but it makes it hard to visualize, so I'm not going to scale I'm going for concept. I have not figured out how to map the quakes on the earth. I have to calculate the lat long and then position something in the exact spot to indicate a quake. My artistic skills stink. I've never seen an uglier earth. Who would have thought I could mess up a sphere? The lighting is garish. Australia is whited out.
Casting the shadows for the eclipse for effect is also not easy. Bleh! Lots of work to be done.
#449
03/29/2011 (1:40 pm)
Repeating Feb 10th Predictions With Saros data (added in 125 from last December year), and some new predictions for may:PREDICTED ORIGIN SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-05 1916-04-18 118 7.5 53.3 -170 ALASKA: ALEUTIAN ISLANDS: FOX ISLANDS 2011-03-06 1997-11-15 125 7.0 -15.1 167.38 U:2:U: VANUATU ISLANDS: ESPIRITU SANTO; LUGANILLE 2011-03-08 1916-04-21 118 7.8 33 141 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU 2011-03-09 1939-01-25 118 8.3 -36.2 -72.2 CHILE: CHILLAN 2011-03-10 1939-01-25 125 8.3 -36.2 -72.2 CHILE: CHILLAN 2011-03-10 1939-01-25 151 8.3 -36.2 -72.2 CHILE: CHILLAN 2011-03-11 1916-04-24 118 7.2 18.5 -68 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: SANTO DOMINIGO 2011-03-12 1609-10-20 118 8.6 -11.9 -77.4 PERU 2011-03-13 1916-04-26 118 7.3 9.33 -82.55 PANAMA: BOCAS DEL TORO 2011-03-14 1939-01-30 118 7.8 -6.5 155.5 PAPUA NEW GUINEA: BOUGAINVILLE ISLAND 2011-03-14 1943-10-23 125 7.2 21.5 93.5 MYANMAR (BURMA) 2011-03-15 1939-01-30 125 7.8 -6.5 155.5 PAPUA NEW GUINEA: BOUGAINVILLE ISLAND 2011-03-15 1939-01-30 151 7.8 -6.5 155.5 PAPUA NEW GUINEA: BOUGAINVILLE ISLAND 2011-03-16 1970-05-31 118 7.9 -9.2 -78.8 PERU 2011-03-16 1997-11-25 125 7.0 1.24 122.54 U:INDONESIA: MINAHASSA PENINSULA: BOLAANG-GORONTALO 2011-03-16 1997-11-25 125 7.0 1.241 122.53 INDONESIA: SULAWESI: MINAHASSA PENINSULA;GORONTALO 2011-03-17 1925-10-13 125 7.5 11 -42 NORTH ATLANTIC RIDGE 2011-03-17 1993-03-06 118 7.1 -10.9 164.18 AUSTRALIA: CORAL SEA 2011-03-17 1993-03-06 130 7.1 -10.9 164.18 AUSTRALIA: CORAL SEA 2011-03-17 1993-03-06 151 7.1 -10.9 164.18 AUSTRALIA: CORAL SEA 2011-03-18 1979-11-16 125 7.0 -16.7 -179.9 FIJI ISLANDS 2011-03-18 1993-03-06 125 7.1 -10.9 164.18 AUSTRALIA: CORAL SEA 2011-03-24 1988-06-18 118 7.0 26.86 -111.0 MEXICO, GULF OF CALIFORNIA 2011-03-24 1997-12-05 130 7.8 54.84 162.03 RUSSIA: KAMCHATKA: UST-KAMCHATSK; PETROPAVLOVSK 2011-03-27 1943-11-06 130 7.6 -6 134.3 INDONESIA: NEW GUINEA: IRIAN JAYA: ARU ISLANDS 2011-03-27 1970-06-11 118 7.6 -59.1 157.8 AUSTRALIA: MACQUARIE ISLAND 2011-03-27 1979-11-27 130 7.1 33.96 59.726 IRAN 2011-03-27 1979-11-27 130 7.5 33.96 59.73 U:IRAN 2011-03-30 1921-02-04 118 7.5 15 -91 MEXICO-GUATEMALA 2011-03-30 1921-02-04 130 7.5 15 -91 MEXICO-GUATEMALA 2011-03-31 1921-02-04 151 7.5 15 -91 MEXICO-GUATEMALA 2011-04-10 1957-03-08 118 7.0 39.4 22.8 GREECE: STEPHANOVIKION-VELESTNON (MAGNESIA) 2011-04-10 1979-12-12 130 7.7 1.598 -79.35 COLOMBIA: OFF SHORE; PACIFIC OCEAN 2011-04-10 1997-12-22 130 7.2 -5.49 147.87 PAPUA NEW GUINEA: SOLOMON SEA 2011-04-10 2006-07-17 118 7.7 -9.25 107.41 JAVA; INDONESIA 2011-04-11 1957-03-08 130 7.0 39.4 22.8 GREECE: STEPHANOVIKION-VELESTNON (MAGNESIA) 2011-04-11 1957-03-09 118 8.6 51.29 -175.6 ALASKA 2011-04-12 1957-03-09 130 8.6 51.29 -175.6 ALASKA 2011-04-15 1925-11-13 130 7.3 13 125 PHILIPPINES: SAMAR: LAOANG; BATAG I 2011-04-17 1925-11-16 130 7.0 18.5 -107 S. MEXICO 2011-04-17 1943-11-26 130 7.6 41 33.7 TURKEY: LADIK 2011-04-19 1943-11-28 130 7.6 54.9 156.8 RUSSIA: KAMCHATKA 2011-04-21 1812-12-21 118 7.1 34.2 -119.9 CALIFORNIA: PURISIMA 2011-04-21 1812-12-21 130 7.1 34.2 -119.9 CALIFORNIA: PURISIMA 2011-04-23 1998-01-04 130 7.5 -22.3 170.91 NEW CALEDONIA: LOYALTY ISLANDS 2011-04-24 1957-03-22 118 7.5 55 -165.2 ALASKA: ALEUTIAN ISLANDS: FOX ISLANDS 2011-04-25 1957-03-22 130 7.5 55 -165.2 ALASKA: ALEUTIAN ISLANDS: FOX ISLANDS 2011-05-01 1980-01-01 130 7.2 38.81 -27.78 AZORES: GRACIOSA; TERCEIRA 2011-05-09 1916-06-21 118 7.5 -28.5 -63 ARGENTINA 2011-05-11 1988-08-06 118 7.2 25.14 95.127 MYANMAR (BURMA); INDIA: GAUHATI; SIBSAGAR
#450
The math is here en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orbit_equation and here en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepler%27s_laws_of_planetary_motion
The details are here en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orbit_of_the_Moon
Mark my words and mark them well. The internet is the death of the library.
03/29/2011 (10:11 pm)
I'm now working out Kepler's laws and putting them in a video game for the orbit of the moon about the earth. I first learned of these laws from Carl Sagan. I was pleased to see that this is now on you tube.The math is here en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orbit_equation and here en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepler%27s_laws_of_planetary_motion
The details are here en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orbit_of_the_Moon
Mark my words and mark them well. The internet is the death of the library.
#451
Thanks so much for your vote of confidence! I’m approaching this as if I were a mathematician (which I am not). And I know very little about geology or astronomy... so maybe that's a key.
Perhaps I can predict the years, and the general locations of quakes based on past eclipse saros history. But I definitely can’t predict specific months, dates or global coordinates like you can.
For anyone who is interested, from NASA, following are the eclipse saros for the years of 8 Great Quakes. (Note: All are located in the Pacific Ring of Fire)
1. Chile (1960) Mag 9.5. Solar: 139, 144 Lunar: 122, 127
2. Russia (1952) Mag 9.0. Solar: 139, 144 Lunar: 113, 118
3. Indonesia (Dec. 26, 2004) Mag 9.1. Solar: 119, 124 Lunar: 131, 136
[Saturn alignment per commenter #442 Nhg was Dec. 26.]
4. Peru/Chile (1968) Mag 9.0. Solar: 119, 124 Lunar: 131, 136
5. Sendai, Japan (2011) Mag 9.0. Solar 151, 118, 156, 123 Lunar: 130, 135
6. Cascadia, PNW (1700) Mag. 9.0. Solar 106, 111, 148 Lunar: 118, 123
7. Alaska (1964) Mag 9.2. Solar 150, 117, 155, 122 Lunar: 129, 134
8. Chile (Feb. 27, 2010) Mag 8.8. Solar 141, 146 Lunar: 120, 125
[Jupiter alignment per commenter Nhg #441 was Feb 28.]
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
For anyone interested in Major Quakes in the Pacific Northwest:
In my previous comment, I wondered about the possibility for a quake here in the PNW. In 2011, we have four identical eclipse saros that were present for the mag 5.7/6.0 quake in the PNW in 1993.
1993: Solar 118, 123 Lunar: 130, 135
2011: Solar 151, 118, 156, 123 Lunar: 130, 135
I assume that four solar and two lunar (total of six) eclipses in one year could really pack a whallop. Britton, could that affect the magnitude of a quake here in the PNW?
Other past quake saros eclipse series of note in the PNW:
PNW (2001) mag 6.8. Solar 127, 132 Lunar 134, 139, 144
PNW (1965) mag 6.5. Solar 127, 132 Lunar 139, 144
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
As I mentioned before, it’s possible that California might see a quake in 2012 similar to the “World Series” quake in Northridge (1994). The eclipse saros for both years are identical:
1994: Solar 128, 133 Lunar 140, 145
2012: Solar 128, 133 Lunar 140, 145
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Should we prepare for an earthquake in Alaska? Or should we look elsewhere in the Pacific Ring of Fire?
2013: Lunar eclipse saros series 150, 117 match those present in the mag 9.2 Great Quake in Alaska of 1964.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
For anyone interested in potential Major Earthquakes in Israel:
2011: Lunar eclipse saros 130, 135 match those found in the mag 6.5 quake in Israel in 1769.
2011-2012: Solar eclipse saros 123, 128 match mag 6.5 earthquake in Israel in 1759.
2012: Solar eclipse saros 140, 145 match those found in mag 6.4 & 7.0 quakes in Israel in 1927 and 1837.
Other eclipse saros of note in Israel: Lunar eclipse saros 119, 124 were present for both the 1927 and 1837 earthquakes.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Again, I would appreciate your feedback, Britton. I’m wondering if the alignment and gravitational pull from the larger planets like Jupiter and Saturn might determine the specific dates/months of the earthquakes that are 6.5 mag and above. (Your commenters Nhg and UWin might be onto something.)
Thanks for your feedback.
Marilyn
03/29/2011 (10:30 pm)
Hi Britton,Thanks so much for your vote of confidence! I’m approaching this as if I were a mathematician (which I am not). And I know very little about geology or astronomy... so maybe that's a key.
Perhaps I can predict the years, and the general locations of quakes based on past eclipse saros history. But I definitely can’t predict specific months, dates or global coordinates like you can.
For anyone who is interested, from NASA, following are the eclipse saros for the years of 8 Great Quakes. (Note: All are located in the Pacific Ring of Fire)
1. Chile (1960) Mag 9.5. Solar: 139, 144 Lunar: 122, 127
2. Russia (1952) Mag 9.0. Solar: 139, 144 Lunar: 113, 118
3. Indonesia (Dec. 26, 2004) Mag 9.1. Solar: 119, 124 Lunar: 131, 136
[Saturn alignment per commenter #442 Nhg was Dec. 26.]
4. Peru/Chile (1968) Mag 9.0. Solar: 119, 124 Lunar: 131, 136
5. Sendai, Japan (2011) Mag 9.0. Solar 151, 118, 156, 123 Lunar: 130, 135
6. Cascadia, PNW (1700) Mag. 9.0. Solar 106, 111, 148 Lunar: 118, 123
7. Alaska (1964) Mag 9.2. Solar 150, 117, 155, 122 Lunar: 129, 134
8. Chile (Feb. 27, 2010) Mag 8.8. Solar 141, 146 Lunar: 120, 125
[Jupiter alignment per commenter Nhg #441 was Feb 28.]
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
For anyone interested in Major Quakes in the Pacific Northwest:
In my previous comment, I wondered about the possibility for a quake here in the PNW. In 2011, we have four identical eclipse saros that were present for the mag 5.7/6.0 quake in the PNW in 1993.
1993: Solar 118, 123 Lunar: 130, 135
2011: Solar 151, 118, 156, 123 Lunar: 130, 135
I assume that four solar and two lunar (total of six) eclipses in one year could really pack a whallop. Britton, could that affect the magnitude of a quake here in the PNW?
Other past quake saros eclipse series of note in the PNW:
PNW (2001) mag 6.8. Solar 127, 132 Lunar 134, 139, 144
PNW (1965) mag 6.5. Solar 127, 132 Lunar 139, 144
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
As I mentioned before, it’s possible that California might see a quake in 2012 similar to the “World Series” quake in Northridge (1994). The eclipse saros for both years are identical:
1994: Solar 128, 133 Lunar 140, 145
2012: Solar 128, 133 Lunar 140, 145
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Should we prepare for an earthquake in Alaska? Or should we look elsewhere in the Pacific Ring of Fire?
2013: Lunar eclipse saros series 150, 117 match those present in the mag 9.2 Great Quake in Alaska of 1964.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
For anyone interested in potential Major Earthquakes in Israel:
2011: Lunar eclipse saros 130, 135 match those found in the mag 6.5 quake in Israel in 1769.
2011-2012: Solar eclipse saros 123, 128 match mag 6.5 earthquake in Israel in 1759.
2012: Solar eclipse saros 140, 145 match those found in mag 6.4 & 7.0 quakes in Israel in 1927 and 1837.
Other eclipse saros of note in Israel: Lunar eclipse saros 119, 124 were present for both the 1927 and 1837 earthquakes.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Again, I would appreciate your feedback, Britton. I’m wondering if the alignment and gravitational pull from the larger planets like Jupiter and Saturn might determine the specific dates/months of the earthquakes that are 6.5 mag and above. (Your commenters Nhg and UWin might be onto something.)
Thanks for your feedback.
Marilyn
#452
This is not for panic to those who lives in that area but to make necessary preparedness if they haven't done yet.
People, who are not scientists or the technicians of any natural disaster related subjects on this planet got more and more interested to study predictions; especially earthquakes. Because - everyone knows that there is no warning or sufficient time to make themselves safe before the real big thing comes to destroy all.
So, you are doing very very great job for all of us.
03/29/2011 (11:10 pm)
Hi Britton, Thanks for your FEB.10 updated predictions. As it is in the list - item #52 .. Quote:2011-05-11 1988-08-06 118 7.2 25.14 95.127 MYANMAR (BURMA); INDIA: GAUHATI; SIBSAGARfor us.
This is not for panic to those who lives in that area but to make necessary preparedness if they haven't done yet.
People, who are not scientists or the technicians of any natural disaster related subjects on this planet got more and more interested to study predictions; especially earthquakes. Because - everyone knows that there is no warning or sufficient time to make themselves safe before the real big thing comes to destroy all.
So, you are doing very very great job for all of us.
#453
@Marylyn Um, yeah. We are getting a lot of hits for Alaska in these predictions. Again, its after this summer that I'm really worried about. Early next year will also be a problem if the triple eclipse of 2009 summer was an indication of the quakes in 2010 and 2011. I honestly don't put much stock in the other planets at this point in time. Their gravitational pull effect is over a thousand times smaller than that of the moon.
Eh, I was not going to say it, but Marylyn would probably figure it out and she would in short order. She already did, in fact. I'll just kind of confirm it. I've already generated the predictions for this year and next. I think the Tokai quake will happen in Japan in April of 2012. Japan will be set back about a decade.
But, Japan will not be alone. (according to my theory) We will be rocked by quakes big time after this summer and early next year.
If my theory is correct, then some people may think its the end of the world. Its not. But we might have some really big quakes. Like we had over the past two years in Hati, Chile and Japan. There will be equally devastating quakes in many more countries.
What is going on? Well its a global tectonic plate shift, the likes of which we have not seen in quite some time. Yeah its all related, one plate shifts and so do the rest. I mean, think about it. They are connected. And by connected I mean directly connected, touching and leaning on each other if you will. So yeah we are in for one heck of a ride over the next two years in my opinion.
The other thing that bothers me is the latitude of the eclipses. I wont say why because I'm not really sure if it will do what I think it will. But the hint is in this blog on the Nasa youtube experiment with a large ball of water in space.
I think the lunar saros theory is correct. The real question is why? What are the physics of the interactions? I think the answer is not too complex. This point forward is pure conjecture on my part.
Imagine the sphere of water is the earth and that the puff of air is the eclipse at that latitude. What happens when you go up and down at exact opposite ends? Twice at the top, twice in the middle and twice at the bottom? The key word of fear for me is antipoidal.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antipodal_point
Harmonic Motion, and wave interference if the effects of the ripples can last much longer than a few days or weeks...
This factors in with Kepler's 3 laws describing orbit. What are the effects of wave vibrations in thick viscous fluid?
And what I think happens if the vibrations last long enough to be felt for several weeks. (Again pure theory...)
Putting two nodes together creates interference waves and nodes. So what happens if you have a long slow pattern with a frequency? And you have 6 where you normally have 4 and you have a triple hit in 6 weeks High... Middle ... Low.
And this... not suggesting is related but... its cool.
I'm suggesting a super frequency, not of sound but of waves that act like sound. Waves caused by gravitation perturbation of liquid magma in the earth. So, I uh have nothing to back this up at the moment. Again its pure theory. The key word in cymatics is "resonance." Harmonic vibration and resonance are felt in earthquakes. I'm suggesting a deeper longer resonance caused by a solid moon orbiting planet filled with by thick super heated viscous fluid.
Counter that with the fact that not all of my prediction are correct, and my method is not precise enough. Still, I'm trying and pitching ideas.
BTW the Dominican republic is heating up. We have had several small quakes there in the past couple of days.
03/29/2011 (11:57 pm)
@U Win. I have a history of over predicting. Don't count on it, but storing extra food and water before that time wont hurt anyone. I'm much more worried after this summer's triple eclipse.Quote:
2011: Solar 151, 118, 156, 123 Lunar: 130, 135
I assume that four solar and two lunar (total of six) eclipses in one year could really pack a whallop. Britton, could that affect the magnitude of a quake here in the PNW?
@Marylyn Um, yeah. We are getting a lot of hits for Alaska in these predictions. Again, its after this summer that I'm really worried about. Early next year will also be a problem if the triple eclipse of 2009 summer was an indication of the quakes in 2010 and 2011. I honestly don't put much stock in the other planets at this point in time. Their gravitational pull effect is over a thousand times smaller than that of the moon.
Eh, I was not going to say it, but Marylyn would probably figure it out and she would in short order. She already did, in fact. I'll just kind of confirm it. I've already generated the predictions for this year and next. I think the Tokai quake will happen in Japan in April of 2012. Japan will be set back about a decade.
But, Japan will not be alone. (according to my theory) We will be rocked by quakes big time after this summer and early next year.
E_DATE TYPE OBS SAROS LATITUDE LONGITUDE -------------------------------------------------------- 04-JAN-11 SOLAR Partial 151 64.7N 20.8E 01-JUN-11 SOLAR Partial 118 67.8N 46.8E 15-JUN-11 LUNAR Total 130 23S 57E 01-JUL-11 SOLAR Pb 156 65.2S 28.6E 25-NOV-11 SOLAR Partial 123 68.6S 82.4W 10-DEC-11 LUNAR Total 135 23N 140E
If my theory is correct, then some people may think its the end of the world. Its not. But we might have some really big quakes. Like we had over the past two years in Hati, Chile and Japan. There will be equally devastating quakes in many more countries.
What is going on? Well its a global tectonic plate shift, the likes of which we have not seen in quite some time. Yeah its all related, one plate shifts and so do the rest. I mean, think about it. They are connected. And by connected I mean directly connected, touching and leaning on each other if you will. So yeah we are in for one heck of a ride over the next two years in my opinion.
The other thing that bothers me is the latitude of the eclipses. I wont say why because I'm not really sure if it will do what I think it will. But the hint is in this blog on the Nasa youtube experiment with a large ball of water in space.
I think the lunar saros theory is correct. The real question is why? What are the physics of the interactions? I think the answer is not too complex. This point forward is pure conjecture on my part.
Imagine the sphere of water is the earth and that the puff of air is the eclipse at that latitude. What happens when you go up and down at exact opposite ends? Twice at the top, twice in the middle and twice at the bottom? The key word of fear for me is antipoidal.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antipodal_point
Harmonic Motion, and wave interference if the effects of the ripples can last much longer than a few days or weeks...
This factors in with Kepler's 3 laws describing orbit. What are the effects of wave vibrations in thick viscous fluid?
And what I think happens if the vibrations last long enough to be felt for several weeks. (Again pure theory...)
Putting two nodes together creates interference waves and nodes. So what happens if you have a long slow pattern with a frequency? And you have 6 where you normally have 4 and you have a triple hit in 6 weeks High... Middle ... Low.
And this... not suggesting is related but... its cool.
I'm suggesting a super frequency, not of sound but of waves that act like sound. Waves caused by gravitation perturbation of liquid magma in the earth. So, I uh have nothing to back this up at the moment. Again its pure theory. The key word in cymatics is "resonance." Harmonic vibration and resonance are felt in earthquakes. I'm suggesting a deeper longer resonance caused by a solid moon orbiting planet filled with by thick super heated viscous fluid.
Counter that with the fact that not all of my prediction are correct, and my method is not precise enough. Still, I'm trying and pitching ideas.
BTW the Dominican republic is heating up. We have had several small quakes there in the past couple of days.
#454
I think I see why you’re predicting Tokai EQ in 2012. We have the exact same sequence of eclipse saros cycles as was present in the 1854 quake, right? (I notice that there's a switch from solar to lunar though. Not sure what that means.)
Tokai EQ (Dec. 23, 1854). Solar saros: Nov. 30, 1853 - 130. May 26, 1854 - 135. Nov. 20, 1854 - 140
Laroche Predicted Tokai EQ (April, 2012). Lunar saros: Jun 15, 2011 – 130. Dec. 10, 2011 - 135. June 4, 2012 – 140
Britton, why in April? Sorry, I'm a complete novice!
Also, when I look at the 8 Great Quakes posted in my previous comment, it seems the solar eclipses pack just as much (or more) punch than the lunar, when it comes to mag 8.0 and up. Your thoughts?
Marilyn
03/30/2011 (1:04 pm)
Hi Britton,I think I see why you’re predicting Tokai EQ in 2012. We have the exact same sequence of eclipse saros cycles as was present in the 1854 quake, right? (I notice that there's a switch from solar to lunar though. Not sure what that means.)
Tokai EQ (Dec. 23, 1854). Solar saros: Nov. 30, 1853 - 130. May 26, 1854 - 135. Nov. 20, 1854 - 140
Laroche Predicted Tokai EQ (April, 2012). Lunar saros: Jun 15, 2011 – 130. Dec. 10, 2011 - 135. June 4, 2012 – 140
Britton, why in April? Sorry, I'm a complete novice!
Also, when I look at the 8 Great Quakes posted in my previous comment, it seems the solar eclipses pack just as much (or more) punch than the lunar, when it comes to mag 8.0 and up. Your thoughts?
Marilyn
#455
From what I understand the geometry of the saros is the important thing. I have not determined what the geometrical similarity or difference is when we have the same saros but a lunar vs solar eclipse. I just see the correlation in the data. I'm trying to build the 3d game engine portion so I can see it for myself.
Why April? I take the difference in days from the eclipse date when the quake occurred. And then add / subtract the same number of days from the next eclipse with the same saros. The logic is the moon will be basically in the same spot (or a similiar orbit path) it was with the last quake.
My guess is, and its just a guess at this point that the moon is on the opposite side of the planet with the lunar / solar flip. So its the same straight line through the 3 objects; earth, sun and moon. The moon's position can be in front or behind the earth, its the amount of gravitation pull that counts. Apparently this pull is the same (as far as the tides are concerned) for both a solar and a lunar eclipse.
I have not figured out the physics or even the geometry at this point. I just see a database correlation, and that drives my predictions.
So I take the quake date and look at the nearest eclipse date, subtract the two, then apply that number of days to the next eclipse with the same saros. And... viola I have my earthquake prediction.
Obviously the problem with my current method is that the same saros cycle does not always produce the same quake every time. Hence my tendency to over predict quakes, and be uncertain as to the true probability of having an earthquake. That is my current limitation at this point in time. Its why I have not been screaming out warnings. It is why I failed to try and warn the Japanese of my March 8th 2011 Quake prediction which turned out to be fairly accurate.
(p.s. the "viola" is an intentional bad joke on my part.) Its my silly pun on the french word "voila." (can't make the accent mark) french.about.com/od/vocabulary/a/voila.htm
I had a buddy say "viola" once instead of "voila" to explain something. It was well timed and made me laugh hard enough to squirt a cola I was drinking through my nose.
All musical viola references aside. The 2012 date fits the larger Tokai quake cycle. I think Japan could be in great danger of a larger more devastating land based quake, than the destruction from the Tsunami they just had. In addition to the massive damage this land based quake produces, they have nuclear power plants in the Tokai region that could literally be shook apart while operating, with no ability to activate the fail safe mechanisms.
Its a guaranteed meltdown waiting to happen just like Chernobyl, or worse.
03/30/2011 (2:07 pm)
@Marlyn, you are not a novice you are now a seasoned pro. From what I understand the geometry of the saros is the important thing. I have not determined what the geometrical similarity or difference is when we have the same saros but a lunar vs solar eclipse. I just see the correlation in the data. I'm trying to build the 3d game engine portion so I can see it for myself.
Why April? I take the difference in days from the eclipse date when the quake occurred. And then add / subtract the same number of days from the next eclipse with the same saros. The logic is the moon will be basically in the same spot (or a similiar orbit path) it was with the last quake.
My guess is, and its just a guess at this point that the moon is on the opposite side of the planet with the lunar / solar flip. So its the same straight line through the 3 objects; earth, sun and moon. The moon's position can be in front or behind the earth, its the amount of gravitation pull that counts. Apparently this pull is the same (as far as the tides are concerned) for both a solar and a lunar eclipse.
I have not figured out the physics or even the geometry at this point. I just see a database correlation, and that drives my predictions.
So I take the quake date and look at the nearest eclipse date, subtract the two, then apply that number of days to the next eclipse with the same saros. And... viola I have my earthquake prediction.
Obviously the problem with my current method is that the same saros cycle does not always produce the same quake every time. Hence my tendency to over predict quakes, and be uncertain as to the true probability of having an earthquake. That is my current limitation at this point in time. Its why I have not been screaming out warnings. It is why I failed to try and warn the Japanese of my March 8th 2011 Quake prediction which turned out to be fairly accurate.
(p.s. the "viola" is an intentional bad joke on my part.) Its my silly pun on the french word "voila." (can't make the accent mark) french.about.com/od/vocabulary/a/voila.htm
I had a buddy say "viola" once instead of "voila" to explain something. It was well timed and made me laugh hard enough to squirt a cola I was drinking through my nose.
All musical viola references aside. The 2012 date fits the larger Tokai quake cycle. I think Japan could be in great danger of a larger more devastating land based quake, than the destruction from the Tsunami they just had. In addition to the massive damage this land based quake produces, they have nuclear power plants in the Tokai region that could literally be shook apart while operating, with no ability to activate the fail safe mechanisms.
Its a guaranteed meltdown waiting to happen just like Chernobyl, or worse.
#456
LOL.
OK, I see your methodology for arriving at the date, thanks. Logically it makes sense.
For clarification... Are you saying you go forward to the next eclipse to calculate the date? Or would it make sense to go back to the last eclipse and count forward? (Seems like the nearest eclipse would have the most pull.)
I did a little more research, and found out there were three more Tokai quakes: 1707, 1605, 1498. The problem is that they all have different saros cycles than the more recent 1854 quake. Do you always base your predictions on the most recent quake?
Note: There IS a match between the solar eclipse cycles and the lunar eclipse cycles for 1854 and 1498: 109, 114. So there you go... there's definitely something to these ideas.
Marilyn
03/30/2011 (2:45 pm)
Britton,LOL.
OK, I see your methodology for arriving at the date, thanks. Logically it makes sense.
For clarification... Are you saying you go forward to the next eclipse to calculate the date? Or would it make sense to go back to the last eclipse and count forward? (Seems like the nearest eclipse would have the most pull.)
I did a little more research, and found out there were three more Tokai quakes: 1707, 1605, 1498. The problem is that they all have different saros cycles than the more recent 1854 quake. Do you always base your predictions on the most recent quake?
Note: There IS a match between the solar eclipse cycles and the lunar eclipse cycles for 1854 and 1498: 109, 114. So there you go... there's definitely something to these ideas.
Marilyn
#457
Do some of them match saros cycles? If so when is the most likely next possible date for the Tokai quake matching 1707, 1605, 1498? Tell me. Lets see you make your first Tokai quake prediction with this data.
I've made my prediction off of these, just curious if you arrive at a similar conclusion. If so I can rest easy knowing if I dropped dead tomorrow there is at least one person who could carry on terrorizing the globe, er I mean predicting earthquakes with this theory.
03/30/2011 (4:03 pm)
@Marilyn, you've got it. I don't always go for the latest quake, I just look at this years (and next years) current saros and then match past quakes. So, as an academic exercise, since you have the correct understanding... Is there a saros correlation between any of these Tokai quakes; 1707, 1605, 1498?Do some of them match saros cycles? If so when is the most likely next possible date for the Tokai quake matching 1707, 1605, 1498? Tell me. Lets see you make your first Tokai quake prediction with this data.
I've made my prediction off of these, just curious if you arrive at a similar conclusion. If so I can rest easy knowing if I dropped dead tomorrow there is at least one person who could carry on terrorizing the globe, er I mean predicting earthquakes with this theory.
#458
Well, maybe I'm not the expert you think I am!
I only see a correspondence between the current lunar eclipse saros series (from 2010): 120, 125, 130, 135, 140, 145 etc. and the solar eclipse series for Dec. 23 Tokai EQ of 1854.
I don't see any correspondence to these numbers and the solar and lunar eclipse saros for the other quakes.
(I did find one more match between the lunar eclipse saros of the 1605 and 1498 quakes... 111, 116, 121 etc.)
So if I was going to predict a quake it would be based on the 1853 quake data. I would place it between 140 (June 04) and 145 (Nov. 28) in 2012. If I'm on the right track, maybe I can calculate a date.
Well, have I read the NASA comparison charts correctly? (Sounds like you have arrived at a conclusion.)
Marilyn
03/30/2011 (5:19 pm)
Britton,Well, maybe I'm not the expert you think I am!
I only see a correspondence between the current lunar eclipse saros series (from 2010): 120, 125, 130, 135, 140, 145 etc. and the solar eclipse series for Dec. 23 Tokai EQ of 1854.
I don't see any correspondence to these numbers and the solar and lunar eclipse saros for the other quakes.
(I did find one more match between the lunar eclipse saros of the 1605 and 1498 quakes... 111, 116, 121 etc.)
So if I was going to predict a quake it would be based on the 1853 quake data. I would place it between 140 (June 04) and 145 (Nov. 28) in 2012. If I'm on the right track, maybe I can calculate a date.
Well, have I read the NASA comparison charts correctly? (Sounds like you have arrived at a conclusion.)
Marilyn
#459
You are on the right track. Here is the past history and pertinent information on what I think the Tokai quakes really are. I think we may have had a mini Tokai quake in 1944. I'm taking out the 1854 quake.
Possible Past Tokai Quakes in Japan
Confirmed Tokai Quakes: Very Short Listed
Possibly Related Saros For Short Listed Tokai Quakes
I'm asking the question because I don't see a Saros relationship between these years. Do you see anything interesting?
03/30/2011 (9:41 pm)
@Marylin,You are on the right track. Here is the past history and pertinent information on what I think the Tokai quakes really are. I think we may have had a mini Tokai quake in 1944. I'm taking out the 1854 quake.
Possible Past Tokai Quakes in Japan
QUAKE_DATE MAG LAT LONG REGION ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 0684-11-29 8.4 32 134 JAPAN 0887-08-26 8.6 33 135.3 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 1096-12-17 8.4 34 137.5 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA 1099-02-22 8.4 33 135.5 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 1361-08-03 8.4 33 135 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 1498-09-20 8.6 34 138.1 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA 1605-02-03 7.9 33 134.9 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 1707-10-28 8.4 33.2 134.8 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 1707-10-28 8.4 34.1 137.8 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA 1944-12-07 8.1 34 137.1 JAPAN: OFF SOUTHEAST COAST KII PENINSULA 1946-12-20 8.1 33 135.6 JAPAN: HONSHU: S COAST
Confirmed Tokai Quakes: Very Short Listed
QUAKE_DATE MAG LAT LONG REGION ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1498-09-20 8.6 34 138.1 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA 1605-02-03 7.9 33 134.9 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 1707-10-28 8.4 33.2 134.8 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 1707-10-28 8.4 34.1 137.8 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA
Possibly Related Saros For Short Listed Tokai Quakes
SAROS E_DATE TYPE OBS LATITUDE LONGITUDE -------------------------------------------------------------- 109 1498-06-19 SOLAR Annular 25.1S 91.8W 121 1498-07-03 LUNAR Partial 23S 123E 114 1498-12-13 SOLAR Total 1.5N 104.3E 126 1498-12-28 LUNAR Penumbral 24N 102E 096 1604-04-14 LUNAR Penumbral 11S 57W 122 1604-04-29 SOLAR Annular 6.3N 74.8E 134 1604-05-13 LUNAR Penumbral 17S 178W 101 1604-10-08 LUNAR Penumbral 7N 40W 127 1604-10-22 SOLAR Total 5.9S 137.8W 106 1605-04-03 LUNAR Partial 6S 54E 132 1605-04-18 SOLAR Annular 49.8S 89.9E 111 1605-09-27 LUNAR Partial 2N 58W 137 1605-10-12 SOLAR Total 43.4N 0.6E 105 1707-04-02 SOLAR Partial 61.1S 11.1W 143 1707-05-02 SOLAR Partial 62.2N 21.4E 110 1707-09-25 SOLAR Partial 61.1N 80.0W 148 1707-10-25 SOLAR Partial 61.6S 151.3W 115 1708-03-22 SOLAR Annular 30.4S 98.3E
I'm asking the question because I don't see a Saros relationship between these years. Do you see anything interesting?
#460
I agree with your prediction. It is accurate based on the 1854 quake saros.
Here is what I think is the real complete Tokai quake list. I included the 7.8 and above in that region. I had to do some updates to my database to complete the list.
Japan Tokai Quake Predictions
03/30/2011 (11:20 pm)
@Marylin,I agree with your prediction. It is accurate based on the 1854 quake saros.
Here is what I think is the real complete Tokai quake list. I included the 7.8 and above in that region. I had to do some updates to my database to complete the list.
QUAKE_DATE MAG LAT LONG REGION ------------------------------------------------------------ 0684-11-29 8.4 32.5 134 JAPAN 0745-06-05 7.9 34.8 135.5 JAPAN: MINO 0887-08-26 8.6 33 135.3 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 1096-12-17 8.4 34 137.5 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA 1099-02-22 8.4 33 135.5 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 1361-08-03 8.4 33 135 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 1498-09-20 8.6 34 138.1 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA 1605-02-03 7.9 33 134.9 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 1707-10-28 8.4 33.2 134.8 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 1707-10-28 8.4 34.1 137.8 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA 1854-12-24 8.3 33.2 135.6 JAPAN
Japan Tokai Quake Predictions
PREDICTED SAROS ORIGIN MAG LAT LONG REGION --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2012-07-08 140 1854-12-24 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN 2013-12-16 117 1099-02-22 8.4 33 135.5 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 2014-05-02 148 1707-10-28 8.4 33.2 134.8 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 2014-05-02 148 1707-10-28 8.4 34.1 137.8 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA 2015-01-20 132 1605-02-03 7.9 33 134.9 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 2015-06-03 120 1361-08-03 8.4 33 135 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 2016-11-19 114 1498-09-20 8.6 34 138.1 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA 2017-04-01 140 1854-12-24 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN 2017-04-02 114 1854-12-24 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN
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